Core Insights - The competitive landscape between NIKE Inc. and Steven Madden Ltd. highlights their distinct market positions, with NIKE as a leader in performance sports and Steven Madden focusing on fashion-forward casual footwear [1][2] NIKE Inc. (NKE) - NIKE's investment case is supported by its significant scale and leadership in the global athleticwear market, with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue reaching $11.72 billion, indicating the effectiveness of its "Win Now" strategy [3][4] - The brand experienced a more than 20% surge in running sales, and North America saw an 11% increase in wholesale, maintaining its status as a leading sportswear brand among younger consumers [4][5] - NIKE's strategic initiatives include a new Sport Offense structure aimed at enhancing product innovation and cultural relevance, alongside efforts to reset classic franchises and focus on key growth categories [5][6] - Despite challenges such as digital softness and tariff pressures leading to a gross margin decline to 42.2%, NIKE's management remains confident in returning to double-digit margins over time [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE's fiscal 2026 sales suggests a modest year-over-year growth of 0.8%, with EPS expected to decline by 24.1% [12] Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) - Steven Madden presents a differentiated investment case with strong brand equity and diversified category exposure, achieving a 6.9% revenue growth in Q3 and expanding gross margin to 43.4% [8][11] - The company benefits from a multi-brand portfolio and a robust presence with 397 stores and seven e-commerce sites, appealing to Gen Z and millennial consumers [7][10] - Product innovation and disciplined pricing strategies are driving demand, particularly in high-demand categories like boots and casual footwear [9][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Steven Madden's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year growth of 10.3%, with EPS expected to decline by 40.1% [14] - Steven Madden's stock has increased by 37% over the past three months, reflecting improving analyst sentiment and expectations for continued growth [8][16] Valuation and Performance Comparison - NIKE shares have declined by 17.8% in the past three months, while Steven Madden's stock has seen significant growth [16] - NIKE is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 30.29X, slightly below its five-year median, indicating a potential opportunity for long-term investors [18][19] - In contrast, Steven Madden's forward P/E multiple is at 18.32X, above its historical median, suggesting elevated market expectations for continued recovery and growth [18][20] - The analysis indicates that NIKE is viewed as a stable leader, while Steven Madden is perceived as a growth story with higher expectations [21] Conclusion - NIKE remains a global icon with unmatched scale, but the near-term outlook favors Steven Madden due to stronger price performance and improving analyst expectations [25][26] - Steven Madden's relative affordability and operational improvements strengthen its investment case, making it a compelling opportunity for growth-focused investors [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - Steven Madden, Ltd. is set to release its third quarter 2025 earnings results on November 5, 2025, with a management conference call scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time [1]. Company Overview - Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, and markets fashion-forward footwear, accessories, and apparel under various brands including Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger London, and Dolce Vita [4]. - The company also licenses products for the Anne Klein brand and operates under private label brand names for various retailers [4]. - Its distribution network includes department stores, mass merchants, online retailers, and specialty retailers, alongside direct operations of retail stores and e-commerce websites [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the fourth quarter of 2024, consolidated revenue was $582.3 million, a 12% increase compared to Q4 2023 [19] - Full year revenue for 2024 increased 15.2% to $2.3 billion compared to $2.0 billion in 2023 [22] - Diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was $0.55, down from $0.61 in Q4 2023, while full year diluted EPS increased to $2.67 from $2.45 in 2023 [22][23] - Consolidated gross margin was 40.4% in Q4 2024, down from 41.7% in Q4 2023 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wholesale revenue for Q4 2024 was $402.9 million, up 13.6% year-over-year, with footwear revenue increasing by 1% to $227.4 million [19] - Accessories and apparel revenue surged 35.4% to $175.4 million in Q4 2024, driven by strong growth across categories [19] - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue was $176 million, an 8.4% increase compared to Q4 2023, with Steve Madden DTC revenue up 6% and Dolce Vita DTC revenue growing 36% [12][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue grew 12% in 2024, with EMEA region revenue increasing 18% [9] - Revenue in the Americas excluding the U.S. grew 9%, supported by a new joint venture in Latin America [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its international presence and diversify production away from China, targeting a reduction in goods sourced from China to the low 40% range by November 2025 [14][28] - The acquisition of Kurt Geiger is expected to enhance growth in international markets and accessories categories, aligning with the company's strategic initiatives [15][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the outlook for 2025 due to new tariffs and inventory pressures in the handbag business [14] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 17% to 19% in 2025, including contributions from Kurt Geiger, but expects low single-digit growth excluding the acquisition [24] Other Important Information - The company returned nearly $160 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [14] - Inventory at the end of 2024 was $257.6 million, up 12.5% year-over-year, attributed to longer transit times [23][96] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about gross margin pressure and plans to mitigate it? - Management acknowledged tariff pressures and outlined strategies including diversifying production and selective price increases [26][28] Question: How is the DTC business performing in January versus February? - Management noted a slow start to the year, particularly in spring product sales, attributed to weather and consumer confidence [38][40] Question: Why is now the right time for the Kurt Geiger acquisition? - The acquisition is seen as an opportunity to leverage Kurt Geiger's growth potential and align with strategic initiatives [43][44] Question: What are the expectations for organic growth in 2025? - Management expects low single-digit growth in wholesale and high single-digit growth in DTC, with specific pressures noted in the handbag segment [54][55] Question: How is inventory health and performance of boots? - Inventory is considered healthy, with a strong boot season reported, but management is focused on transitioning consumers to spring styles [94][98]