Summary of Key Points from the Equity Research Report on China Software Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China software industry, particularly highlighting the performance of 18 covered software companies in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) [3][11]. - There is a noted recovery in earnings, with total net profit rising by 92% year-on-year (y-o-y) for the covered companies [10][11]. Core Insights - **Earnings Recovery**: The significant recovery in earnings is attributed to limited downside from tighter IT budgets, as the base is low, and ongoing cost control measures are expected to continue driving earnings recovery [3][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is improving, with smaller players exiting the market, which may benefit larger firms [3]. - **Revenue Drivers**: AI and localization are identified as key revenue drivers, with specific companies like Yonyou and Kingdee expected to benefit from AI monetization [4][9]. Company-Specific Highlights - **Sangfor**: - Rated "Buy" with a target price of RMB 144.00, implying an 18% upside. The company is expected to benefit from improved demand for HCI and software-defined storage amid AI adoption [24]. - **Yonyou**: - Rated "Buy" with a target price of RMB 21.00, indicating a 43% upside. The company is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12% from 2025 to 2027 [24]. - **Kingdee**: - Rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 18.20, suggesting a 24% upside. Expected revenue growth at a CAGR of 12.5% over 2024-2027 [24]. - **Kingsoft Office**: - Rated "Buy" with a target price of RMB 353.00, indicating a 7% upside. The company is well-positioned in software localization and AI function optimization [24]. - **ThunderSoft**: - Rated "Buy" with a target price of RMB 82.00, suggesting a 25% upside. The company is expected to see robust demand for on-device AI [24]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are showing strong interest in AI applications and their monetization potential, particularly in ERP systems [4][9]. - There is a focus on high-quality AI A-share software names seeking H-share listings, such as Yonyou and Intsig, due to their valuation discounts [4]. Risks and Challenges - **Sector Risks**: Potential risks include a weak macroeconomic environment leading to tighter IT budgets, intense competition, and policy support falling short of expectations [6][24]. - **Valuation Concerns**: Some investors express concerns regarding high valuations, particularly for companies like Kingsoft Office, although others believe the valuations are reasonable given the earnings visibility [5]. Conclusion - The China software sector is experiencing a notable recovery, driven by AI and localization trends. Key players are positioned to benefit from these trends, although risks related to macroeconomic conditions and competition remain pertinent. Investors are advised to consider these dynamics when evaluating opportunities in the sector.