Core Viewpoint - Starbucks Corp. is preparing to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on January 28, with CEO Brian Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" strategy facing scrutiny due to rising operational costs that may lead to a stock correction [1] Earnings Expectations - Wall Street anticipates Starbucks to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.58, a decrease from $0.69 in the same quarter last year, despite a projected revenue increase to $9.64 billion [2] - Jefferies analyst Andy Barish has reiterated an "Underperform" rating with a price target of $75, describing the stock's recent performance as an "unsupported rally" [2] Operational Challenges - The "Green Apron Service" standard, implemented in August 2025, aims to enhance customer service through increased staffing and better order sequencing, but its impact will be felt in the first quarter [3] - Jefferies highlights that the costs associated with labor reinvestment and the rollout of Assistant Store Managers will challenge margins in the first half of the year [4] Revenue Strategy - CFO Cathy Smith has indicated that the company plans to prioritize revenue growth over immediate earnings, acknowledging that investments will pressure near-term profits [5] - The company is counting on strong holiday sales, particularly from returning seasonal items like the Eggnog Latte, to meet revenue targets [5] Analyst Sentiment - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating with a raised price target of $114, citing long-term growth potential in China despite current economic challenges [6][8] - Mizuho advises a neutral stance, suggesting investors wait for clearer long-term financial targets expected at the upcoming Investor Day [10] Stock Performance - Starbucks shares have increased by 12.57% over the last month and 14.72% year-to-date in 2026, although they are down 3.69% over the past year [11]

Core Insights - The company has reported its first same-store sales growth in nearly two years, indicating progress in its turnaround efforts [1] - The launch of the Green Apron service program in August has positively impacted store performance, leading to increased customer transactions and satisfaction [2][4] Financial Performance - The company experienced positive transactions and comparable sales growth in the U.S. since September, continuing into October [2] - Customer compliments reached the highest number in the last five years during the fourth quarter, while customer complaints decreased by 10% year-over-year since the launch of the Green Apron Service [2] Strategic Initiatives - The holiday season is viewed as a critical moment for the company, with comprehensive marketing and product offerings planned, including the return of the eggnog latte [4][5] - The company is focused on enhancing the customer experience, which is perceived as valuable across all age groups, contributing to improved value scores [7][8] International Expansion - The company has seen consecutive quarters of comparable sales growth in China, with plans to expand from 8,000 to 15,000-20,000 stores, particularly in tier three, four, and five cities [11][12] - A strong local partnership is considered essential for successful and rapid development in the Chinese market [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q4 was $9.6 billion, reflecting a 5% increase year-over-year, driven by 2% net new company-operated store growth and a 1% increase in global comparable store sales [23][24] - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 was $0.52, down 34% from the prior year, primarily due to investments in the business and restructuring costs [28][29] - Consolidated operating margin was 9.4%, contracting 500 basis points from the prior year, mainly due to inflation and investments in labor [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. comparable store sales were flat year-over-year, with ticket up 1%, reflecting fewer discount-driven offers [23] - International segment reported 9% year-over-year net revenue growth in Q4, reaching over $2 billion, with strong performance in China, Japan, the U.K., and Mexico [25][26] - The delivery business in the U.S. grew nearly 30% year-over-year in Q4, surpassing $1 billion in sales for the full fiscal year [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America company-operated comparable store sales improved to flat year-over-year, with positive comp growth in Canada [6][23] - Starbucks China achieved 2% comparable store sales growth in Q4, driven by a 9% improvement in comparable transactions [25][26] - The international segment's revenue reached an all-time high of $7.8 billion for the fiscal year [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its "Back to Starbucks" strategy, emphasizing customer connection and craft, while also innovating across various access points [5][39] - Investments are being made in staffing and operational hours to enhance customer experience and service speed [9][10] - The company is piloting a new coffee house prototype with lower build costs and optimized space utilization [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the turnaround strategy, noting that Q4 marked the first quarter of global comparable sales growth in seven quarters [32] - The holiday season is anticipated to be a significant opportunity for the company, with a focus on delivering a warm and welcoming customer experience [17] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by inflation and dynamic coffee prices but remains optimistic about long-term growth potential [66][68] Other Important Information - The company closed 107 net stores globally as part of its restructuring efforts, which are expected to be slightly accretive to profitability [29][30] - The company plans to continue its disciplined capital deployment and improve profitability of new coffee houses [30][31] - The company announced an increase in its quarterly dividend, marking the 15th consecutive year of increases [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about the "Back to Starbucks" strategy - Management clarified that the strategy is comprehensive and aims to enhance customer connection and craft across all service channels, not just in-cafe [36][39] Question: Feedback on the Protein Platform and pricing - Management reported positive feedback on the Protein Platform, with customers appreciating the customization and value it offers [42][44] Question: Progress of the Green Apron Service model - Management indicated that the Green Apron Service is building momentum, with initial pilot stores outperforming others, and expects continued improvement as teams adapt [49][51] Question: Impact of store closures on profitability - Management stated that closures were based on customer experience viability and financial performance, and they expect some sales transfer to nearby stores [70][72] Question: Future pricing strategies and value perceptions - Management emphasized a strategic approach to pricing, monitoring value perception closely while navigating inflation challenges [80][81]