1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lifting of liquidity concerns has led to a warming of market sentiment, and the expectation of loose liquidity will open up an upward space for copper prices again. After the decline in copper prices, social inventories have decreased, but insufficient recovery in downstream demand restricts the short - term upward space for copper prices. The expectation of copper ore shortage still benefits copper prices in the medium - to - long term. In the long run, the narrative of copper ore shortage will return. Recently, market risk appetite has improved, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect, and insufficient recovery in downstream demand will cause short - term copper prices to mainly fluctuate and adjust. After the macro - narrative stabilizes, the strategy is to buy on dips when copper prices are in a volatile state [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Supply - side Data**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the spot TC of copper concentrate increased by 0.26% week - on - week to - 42.04 dollars/ton due to the shutdown of PT Amman smelter and the increase in short - term copper concentrate circulation. The refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed by 17.05% to 3315 yuan/ton as copper prices fell and scrap copper traders' willingness to sell decreased. The southern crude copper processing fee increased by 9.09% to 1200 yuan/ton as some enterprises switched to anode plate production. The operating rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and wire and cable all increased, with increases of 2.55%, 20.92%, and 4.36% respectively, due to the decline in copper prices stimulating downstream demand [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The global visible inventory increased by 5.23% to 75.97 million tons, mainly due to the increase in COMEX and LME inventories. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons as downstream purchasing increased. The bonded area inventory decreased slightly by 0.34% to 8.82 million tons, with overall balanced supply and demand. The SHFE copper inventory increased by 344.36% to 124.42 million tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 2.00% to 13.63 million tons due to previous exports [8]. - **Profit Data**: The spot and long - term comprehensive smelting profits decreased by 1.11% and 24.21% respectively, with the short - term loss intensifying. The import profit increased by 30.59% to - 540 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro and Strategy**: The US government shutdown caused liquidity concerns, but the recent agreement to end the shutdown has lifted these concerns, warming market sentiment. Fundamentally, short - term copper price increases are restricted by insufficient downstream demand recovery, while long - term copper prices are supported by the expectation of copper ore shortage. The short - term strategy is for copper prices to fluctuate, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premiums and discounts, the spread between the current and three - month contracts of Shanghai copper, the price of sulfuric acid, and the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio and related spreads [13][16][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper (including by - product sulfuric acid), spot and long - term, as well as the import and export profits of copper [20][21][23]. - **Supply**: It includes data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate imports, electrolytic copper production, imports, and total supply [27][31]. - **Demand**: It covers the demand from various sectors such as copper rods, wire and cable, power grids, air conditioners, copper strips, automobiles, and real estate, including operating rates, inventory levels, and production and sales data [33][35][44][46][52][55]. - **Inventory**: Data on various copper inventories, including Chinese electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX and LME electrolytic copper inventories, and global refined copper inventory, are provided [60]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - The CFTC non - commercial long - position ratio is 32% and shows a strengthening trend recently. The LME investment fund net long - position is 36768.23 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1814.84 lots [70].

全球铜矿步入短缺常态化阶段 智利国家统计局数据显示，因矿山运营中断及矿石品位下降，9月铜产量为456663吨，环比回升7.79%，但同比仍下 降4.5%。受8月Codelco最大矿场坍塌事故影响，尽管产量有所恢复，但仍低于去年同期。秘鲁能矿部数据显示，8月 铜产量同比减少1.6%，至24.27万吨。国际铜研究组织预计，2025年全球铜矿短缺约15万吨，2026年缺口将扩大至30 万吨，全球铜矿供需格局步入短缺常态化的阶段。 2025年，中国进口铜精矿现货加工费（TC）长期深陷-40美元／干吨以下的负值区间。相关数据显示，10月31日，进 口铜精矿指数报-42.15美元／干吨，同比大幅下滑53.24美元／干吨。尽管2026年铜精矿长单加工费谈判仍在胶着 中，但市场普遍预期最终结果将显著低于2025年21.25美元／干吨和2.125美分／磅的基准价，并可能指向零水平，个 别谈判存在出现负值的可能。 相关数据显示，10月中国电解铜产量为109.21万吨，环比下降2.94万吨，降幅2.62%，同比增长9.63%。产量环比下降 主要受集中检修压制供给、原料供应区域分化的影响。11月，计划检修的冶炼厂减少至5家，涉及粗炼 ...

2025年10月10日，来自安徽省芜湖市湾沚区安徽新芜经济开发区的安徽鑫旭新材料有限公司的控股公司XINXU COPPER INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGY LIMITED(以下简称"鑫旭新材料")在美国证券交易委员会(SEC)更新招股书，股票代码XXC，拟在美国纳斯达克IPO上 市。其于2021年7月30日在SEC秘密递交招股书，后于2024年4月1日公开披露招股书。 鑫旭新材料，来自安徽芜湖，主要从事铜及铜合金产品的研发、制造和加工以及销售和分销，产品包T2紫铜棒、T2镀锡铜棒、T2铜棒和 电解铜等，广泛应用于电子电器、通讯、汽车、空调、船舶、冶金、机电、交通、建筑住宅、配电、太阳能等行业的多元化终端市场。 鑫旭新材料路演PPT 招股书(2025年9月18日) Disclaimer and Forward-Looking Statements The presention mates to the popesed nibil public ofiling (To Xinou Copen Indecin) (Technology is Vimes) "d Ximu)", who helphoto on ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a slight upward trend, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and stable supply-demand dynamics, despite some underlying pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, particularly labor statistics, have shown weakness, leading to a significant increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The US dollar index is operating weakly, contributing to a favorable environment for copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, indicating stable supply conditions [1] - Chilean copper miner Codelco has requested permission to partially reopen its flagship El Teniente copper mine, which may impact future production levels [1] Group 3: Market Inventory and Consumption - As of August 7, domestic electrolytic copper inventory stood at 133,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from August 4 [1] - The Shanghai and Guangdong markets continue to see inventory accumulation, while Jiangsu market inventory has decreased [1] - Recent increases in imported copper arrivals in Shanghai have been noted, although downstream consumption remains relatively weak [1] Group 4: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that recent disturbances in copper mining and marginally rising rate cut expectations are supporting copper price performance [1] - However, there are concerns about potential downward pressure on prices due to weakening overseas data and slowing domestic demand [1] - Future observations will focus on consumer resilience, as continued weakness below seasonal expectations may limit price support [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell due to weak demand, with a decrease of $87.5 or 0.9%, closing at $9,611.0 per ton on July 31 [1] - The U.S. copper price experienced the largest single-day drop in history, plummeting 22% to $4.37 per pound, or $9,638 per ton, after President Trump announced the exclusion of refined copper from a 50% import tariff [3] - The announcement led to a significant adjustment in investor positions, as many had previously imported copper to take advantage of price premiums [3] Group 2 - Major exchanges trade copper based on electrolytic copper, and the recent price drop has caused a slight discount of Comex copper relative to LME copper [4] - LME copper inventories have increased by approximately 50% over the past month, indicating potential supply issues if the price disparity continues [4] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain weak due to seasonal demand downturns [5] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 1.3% decline in the main copper contract, closing at 78,040 yuan per ton [6] - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.3% in July, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [6] - The decline in PMI is attributed to seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions affecting certain regions [6]

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the copper industry, focusing on supply dynamics, production challenges, and market trends related to copper and its derivatives [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Maintenance on Copper Prices** - The early maintenance and production cuts by Tongling Nonferrous Metals have a minimal short-term impact on copper prices and related sectors. Maintenance typically occurs in Q2, with a larger scale expected in April [2]. 2. **Reasons for No Production Cuts Despite Losses** - Smelters are not reducing production despite losses due to several factors: - Current spot market TC prices are at -15 to -16 USD per pound, leading to losses exceeding 2,000 RMB per ton. - Long-term market prices are around 20 USD per pound, allowing for some profit despite negative margins. - Byproducts like sulfuric acid contribute approximately 1,000 RMB profit, and improved recovery rates enhance profitability [3]. 3. **Record High Electrolytic Copper Production** - Domestic electrolytic copper production reached record highs due to: - An increase of about 500,000 tons in global new mine supply in 2024. - Support from imported scrap copper and high inventory levels. - Full-capacity production leading to economies of scale [5]. 4. **Future Supply Tightness** - Supply tightness is expected to manifest in both mining and raw material sectors: - Limited new global mine supply and declining port inventories will tighten supply. - Domestic scrap copper supply is expected to see slight increases but remains constrained overall [6]. 5. **Policy Impact on Scrap Copper Production** - The cancellation of subsidies for recycled copper and aluminum enterprises led to a significant drop in scrap copper production from June to September 2024, but production rebounded in Q4 [7]. 6. **Trends in Scrap Copper Market Growth** - The growth rate of scrap copper production in China was significantly impacted by the pandemic in 2022, with a recovery of nearly 20% in 2023. Future growth is expected to stabilize at 1.5% to 2% [8]. 7. **Effects of Reverse Invoicing Policy** - The reverse invoicing policy has increased procurement costs for small and medium enterprises, leading to a widening price gap between compliant and non-compliant scrap copper [9]. 8. **Challenges in Importing Scrap Copper** - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported scrap copper, significantly raising costs and affecting China's imports, which currently account for about 20% of total imports [10]. 9. **Global Supply Pressure in 2025** - Global supply of scrap copper and minerals is expected to face significant pressure due to limited import growth and constrained new mine supply, particularly from South America [11]. 10. **Overcapacity in Smelting** - Global smelting capacity is expanding faster than ore supply, leading to potential overcapacity issues. Domestic smelting capacity is expected to increase by 1 million to 1.1 million tons in 2025 [12]. 11. **Stable Demand Drivers** - Demand remains stable with growth in domestic power grid construction, home appliances, and electric vehicles, offsetting declines in the real estate sector. Overall demand in China is projected to grow by 2% to 3% [13][14]. 12. **Investment Recommendations** - Investment focus is recommended on companies with lower competition and higher elasticity, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, as well as Minmetals Resources in Hong Kong, which is expected to have significant growth in 2025 [15].