8月7日国内市场电解铜现货库存13.33万吨，较4日降0.10万吨。其中上海、广东市场继续表现累库，江 苏市场有所下降；近期上海市场进口铜到货仍有所增加，且周内铜价止跌反弹，下游消费仍较为一般。 对于后续铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，近期铜矿扰动，以及降息预期边际回升，支撑铜价表现。但未来中 期宏微观预期上，仍有海外数据逐步走弱，国内反内卷驱动行情放缓，物流回流潜在过剩。几个因素不 利于价格持续上行，且有向下压力。未来需观察消费韧性，若持续弱于季节性则支撑能力有限。 （文华综合） 由于近期公布的经济数据特别是劳动力数据表现疲弱，且美联储部分官员言论偏鸽，美联储9月降息预 期出现明显抬升，美指弱势运行，叠加国内工业品氛围偏暖，沪铜暂时企稳。 目前国内铜精矿现货加工费仍然低位维稳，最近海外矿端和冶炼端传来纷纷扰扰，不过昨日智利铜矿商 Codelco已请求智利矿业监管机构允许其旗舰El Teniente铜矿的一部分重新开工，后续仍需跟踪此前事故 对产量造成的影响。 沪铜早间小幅高开，日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨0.38%。美联储降息预期走强，美指弱势运行，供需 面暂时压力不大，沪铜震荡运行。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell due to weak demand, with a decrease of $87.5 or 0.9%, closing at $9,611.0 per ton on July 31 [1] - The U.S. copper price experienced the largest single-day drop in history, plummeting 22% to $4.37 per pound, or $9,638 per ton, after President Trump announced the exclusion of refined copper from a 50% import tariff [3] - The announcement led to a significant adjustment in investor positions, as many had previously imported copper to take advantage of price premiums [3] Group 2 - Major exchanges trade copper based on electrolytic copper, and the recent price drop has caused a slight discount of Comex copper relative to LME copper [4] - LME copper inventories have increased by approximately 50% over the past month, indicating potential supply issues if the price disparity continues [4] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain weak due to seasonal demand downturns [5] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 1.3% decline in the main copper contract, closing at 78,040 yuan per ton [6] - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.3% in July, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [6] - The decline in PMI is attributed to seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions affecting certain regions [6]

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the copper industry, focusing on supply dynamics, production challenges, and market trends related to copper and its derivatives [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Maintenance on Copper Prices** - The early maintenance and production cuts by Tongling Nonferrous Metals have a minimal short-term impact on copper prices and related sectors. Maintenance typically occurs in Q2, with a larger scale expected in April [2]. 2. **Reasons for No Production Cuts Despite Losses** - Smelters are not reducing production despite losses due to several factors: - Current spot market TC prices are at -15 to -16 USD per pound, leading to losses exceeding 2,000 RMB per ton. - Long-term market prices are around 20 USD per pound, allowing for some profit despite negative margins. - Byproducts like sulfuric acid contribute approximately 1,000 RMB profit, and improved recovery rates enhance profitability [3]. 3. **Record High Electrolytic Copper Production** - Domestic electrolytic copper production reached record highs due to: - An increase of about 500,000 tons in global new mine supply in 2024. - Support from imported scrap copper and high inventory levels. - Full-capacity production leading to economies of scale [5]. 4. **Future Supply Tightness** - Supply tightness is expected to manifest in both mining and raw material sectors: - Limited new global mine supply and declining port inventories will tighten supply. - Domestic scrap copper supply is expected to see slight increases but remains constrained overall [6]. 5. **Policy Impact on Scrap Copper Production** - The cancellation of subsidies for recycled copper and aluminum enterprises led to a significant drop in scrap copper production from June to September 2024, but production rebounded in Q4 [7]. 6. **Trends in Scrap Copper Market Growth** - The growth rate of scrap copper production in China was significantly impacted by the pandemic in 2022, with a recovery of nearly 20% in 2023. Future growth is expected to stabilize at 1.5% to 2% [8]. 7. **Effects of Reverse Invoicing Policy** - The reverse invoicing policy has increased procurement costs for small and medium enterprises, leading to a widening price gap between compliant and non-compliant scrap copper [9]. 8. **Challenges in Importing Scrap Copper** - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported scrap copper, significantly raising costs and affecting China's imports, which currently account for about 20% of total imports [10]. 9. **Global Supply Pressure in 2025** - Global supply of scrap copper and minerals is expected to face significant pressure due to limited import growth and constrained new mine supply, particularly from South America [11]. 10. **Overcapacity in Smelting** - Global smelting capacity is expanding faster than ore supply, leading to potential overcapacity issues. Domestic smelting capacity is expected to increase by 1 million to 1.1 million tons in 2025 [12]. 11. **Stable Demand Drivers** - Demand remains stable with growth in domestic power grid construction, home appliances, and electric vehicles, offsetting declines in the real estate sector. Overall demand in China is projected to grow by 2% to 3% [13][14]. 12. **Investment Recommendations** - Investment focus is recommended on companies with lower competition and higher elasticity, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, as well as Minmetals Resources in Hong Kong, which is expected to have significant growth in 2025 [15].