Core Insights - Tesla's shares have increased by 18% over the last month, currently priced at $475, despite challenges in its core automotive business due to competition and a slowdown in EV demand [1] - Investor optimism is driven by advancements in Tesla's AI developments, particularly the Robotaxi program, which has begun testing vehicles without safety drivers [1] Valuation - Tesla's valuation is considered very high, with a target price of $330 suggested based on a comprehensive analysis [3][6] - The stock is viewed as unattractive due to its very high valuation relative to its operational performance and financial status [3] Financial Performance - Tesla has a market capitalization of $1.5 trillion and has experienced an average top-line growth rate of 9.3% over the past three years [5][7] - Revenues decreased by 1.6% from $97 billion to $96 billion in the last 12 months, but quarterly revenues increased by 11.6% to $28 billion from $25 billion a year earlier [7] - Operating income over the last 12 months was $4.9 billion, with an operating margin of 5.1% and a net income of approximately $5.1 billion, indicating a net margin of around 5.3% [8] Debt and Cash Position - Tesla's debt stands at $14 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.0% [8] - The company holds $42 billion in cash (including cash equivalents) out of total assets of $134 billion, resulting in a cash-to-assets ratio of 31.1% [8] Market Performance - Tesla's stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during economic downturns, with significant declines observed during the 2022 inflation shock and the 2020 COVID pandemic [9][11] - The stock dropped 73.6% from a peak of $409.97 on November 4, 2021, to $108.10 on January 3, 2023, but fully recovered to its pre-crisis high by December 11, 2024 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has experienced a significant decline of 5.1% due to concerns regarding CEO Elon Musk's proposed $1 trillion compensation plan and opposition from Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, which is one of Tesla's largest shareholders [1] Financial Performance - Tesla is currently valued at $1.4 trillion with a revenue of $96 billion, trading at $444.26 [5] - The company has reported a revenue growth of -1.6% over the last 12 months and an operating margin of 5.1% [5] - Tesla's stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 282.3 and a P/EBIT multiple of 205.7 [5] Historical Stock Performance - TSLA stock has seen a decline of 73.6% from a high of $409.97 on November 4, 2021, to $108.10 on January 3, 2023, while the S&P 500 declined by 25.4% during the same period [6] - The stock fully regained its pre-crisis peak by December 11, 2024, reaching a high of $479.86 on December 17, 2024, and is currently trading at $444.26 [6] - Historical data shows that TSLA has returned a median of 60.8% within a year after substantial dips since 2010 [5] Risk and Recovery Analysis - The stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during various economic downturns, raising concerns about its downturn resilience [3] - TSLA stock dropped by 60.6% from a high of $61.16 on February 19, 2020, to $24.08 on March 18, 2020, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500, but fully recovered by June 8, 2020 [8] - The stock also decreased by 53.5% from a peak of $25.67 on September 18, 2017, to $11.93 on June 3, 2019, with a full recovery by December 18, 2019 [8]

Core Insights - Tesla plans to expand production at its German factory from approximately 250,000 cars per year to one million, which involves constructing a new assembly hall the size of 60 soccer fields, although this may face local opposition [3] - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing a slowdown, with increasing competition from Chinese automakers making Tesla's vehicles less appealing, particularly in international markets [4] - Tesla's Cybertruck has not met expectations, and competitors like Google's Waymo are advancing in self-driving technology, indicating that Tesla is not the only significant player in this space [4] Revenue Growth Comparison - Tesla's operating margin is 5.1%, which is moderate and higher than most competitors but lower than PACCAR's 11.4% [6] - Over the past 12 months, Tesla's revenue growth has been negative at -1.6%, trailing General Motors, Ford, and Rivian, but surpassing PACCAR and Oshkosh [6] - Tesla's stock surged by 88.1% in the last year, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 297.6, which is higher than its competitors [6] Operating Margin Comparison - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which includes 30 stocks, has consistently outperformed benchmarks such as the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000, indicating a more stable investment experience [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has nearly doubled since March, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence and autonomous driving, as well as CEO Elon Musk's return to the company [1] Financial Performance - Tesla's market capitalization stands at $1.5 trillion, with recent revenues showing a slight decline of 1.6% from $97 billion to $96 billion over the last 12 months, although quarterly revenue increased by 11.6% to $28 billion [6][7] - The company's operating income for the last 12 months was $4.9 billion, with an operating margin of 5.1% and a cash flow margin of 16.5%, generating approximately $16 billion in operating cash flow [11] - Tesla's net income was about $5.1 billion, indicating a net margin of around 5.3% [11] Valuation and Market Position - The stock is perceived to have a very high valuation, leading to a negative outlook with a target price of $319 [2][7] - Tesla's performance in the electric vehicle (EV) market is facing challenges, particularly from increasing competition from Chinese automakers and the lukewarm reception of the Cybertruck [4] Growth and Profitability - Tesla has experienced an average growth rate of 9.3% in its top line over the past three years, but the growth appears unsteady [7][8] - The company's profitability is considered weak compared to the wider market [8] Debt and Financial Stability - Tesla's debt was reported at $14 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.9%, and it holds cash (including cash equivalents) totaling $42 billion from total assets of $134 billion, resulting in a cash-to-assets ratio of 31.1% [11] Stock Performance History - Tesla's stock dropped 73.6% from a peak of $409.97 on November 4, 2021, to $108.10 on January 3, 2023, while the S&P 500 saw a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% during the same period [12] - The stock has shown volatility, recovering to its pre-crisis peak by December 11, 2024, and reaching a maximum of $479.86 on December 17, 2024 [12]