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Compass Stock Slides Over 15% In A Week, What's Next?
Forbesยท 2025-09-29 13:35
Core Viewpoint - Compass Inc. is facing significant stock pressure following its announcement to acquire Anywhere Real Estate in an all-stock deal valued between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion, leading to a stock decline of over 15% while the S&P 500 only fell by 0.6% [2][3] Valuation - Compass's price-to-sales ratio is 0.7, lower than the S&P 500's 3.3, but it has a negative price-to-earnings ratio due to ongoing losses, and its price-to-free-cash-flow multiple of 30.2 is higher than the market's 21.2, indicating a weak valuation argument despite moderate sales [4] Growth - Revenue has shown a complex trajectory, with a slight average decrease over the past three years, but a 21% increase in the last twelve months, including a 21% year-over-year surge in the latest quarter, suggesting inconsistency in growth [5] Profitability - Compass has not achieved sustained profitability, with a negative operating margin of 0.7% and a net margin of -0.9%, despite positive operating cash flow of $164 million, which is trivial compared to the broader market's 20% margin [6] Financial Stability - The company has a favorable debt-to-equity ratio of 12.3% with $547 million in debt against a market cap of $4.4 billion, and a cash-to-assets ratio of 11.1%, but the upcoming Anywhere deal, which includes $2.6 billion in assumed debt, could threaten this stability [7] Downturn Resilience - Compass's stock has shown significant vulnerability during downturns, plummeting nearly 91% during the 2022 inflation shock, while the S&P 500 only declined by 25%, indicating a strong correlation with the housing cycle and investor sentiment [8] Conclusion - The acquisition of Anywhere Real Estate, while ambitious, may not translate to shareholder value due to moderate valuation, erratic growth, weak profitability, potential financial instability from increased debt, and poor downturn resilience, making Compass stock appear unfavorable at this time [9]