Fox (NasdaqGS:FOX) Q2 2026 Earnings call February 04, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsGabrielle Brown - Head of Investor RelationsJessica Reif Ehrlich - Managing DirectorLachlan Murdoch - Executive Chair and CEORobert Fishman - CFASteve Tomsic - CFOThomas Yeh - Equity ResearchNone - Company RepresentativeConference Call ParticipantsJohn Hodulik - AnalystMichael Morris - Senior Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystMichael Ng - AnalystOperatorAs a reminder, this conference is being recorde ...

Fox (NasdaqGS:FOX) Q2 2026 Earnings call February 04, 2026 08:30 AM ET Speaker2As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'll now turn the conference over to Chief Investor Relations Officer, Ms. Gabrielle Brown. Please go ahead, Ms. Brown.Speaker0Thank you, Krista. Good morning, and welcome to our fiscal 2026 second quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Lachlan Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer, John Nallen, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steve Tomsic, o ...

Key Takeaways FOXA is expected to benefit from strong NFL viewership and FOX News ratings supporting reach and ad demand.Year-over-year comparisons are expected to be impacted by the absence of prior political advertising revenues.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FOXA's Q4 2025 EPS is pegged at 46 cents, unchanged over the past 30 days.Fox Corporation (FOXA) is set to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 4.For the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 46 ...

Industry Overview - Streaming has evolved into a primary viewing choice for many households, driven by faster connectivity and changing audience habits, creating opportunities for companies like Sony, Fox, and Roku [2] - The appeal of streaming includes convenience and control, leading platforms to invest in original programming and technology to enhance viewer engagement [3] - Industry projections suggest global streaming revenues could approach $190 billion by 2029, supported by nearly 2 billion subscriptions worldwide [4] Company Insights: Sony Group Corporation - Sony's strategic move into streaming began with the acquisition of Crunchyroll for approximately $1.17 billion, creating a global anime platform [7] - By mid-2025, Crunchyroll had over 17 million paid subscribers, showcasing the growth of anime as a mainstream category [8] - Sony Pictures Core focuses on delivering premium film content directly to consumers, enhancing the value of Sony devices [9] - Sony is expanding geographically through partnerships, including launching dedicated subscription channels on platforms like Prime Video [10] Company Insights: Fox Corporation - Fox's streaming strategy gained momentum with the acquisition of Tubi, a free ad-supported platform, which has become central to its direct-to-consumer approach [11] - Tubi reached quarterly profitability in Q1 of fiscal 2026, achieving 27% revenue growth driven by an 18% increase in viewership [13] - Tubi aims for a long-term margin framework of 20-25%, positioning it as a significant future earnings growth engine [14] - The platform is capitalizing on younger viewers migrating to free streaming, enhancing its content slate and advertising capabilities [15] Company Insights: Roku - Roku transitioned from hardware to an end-to-end streaming platform, enhancing its ecosystem for content distribution and advertising [16] - In Q3 2025, Roku's total streaming hours reached 36.5 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, supporting ad inventory growth [17] - Roku's streaming services distribution is gaining traction, with improved content discovery and a focus on live sports to drive subscriber growth [18] - The launch of Howdy, a low-cost ad-free service, broadens Roku's audience and enhances margins as subscriptions scale [19]

Core Insights - The U.S. cable network industry has officially entered a decline stage characterized by falling revenues, shrinking viewership, and significant restructuring of legacy assets [2][4] Industry Trends - The high-stakes bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) represents a pivotal moment for the future of cable television, with Netflix and Paramount Skydance pursuing different strategies [2][3] - Paramount Skydance aims to acquire WBD entirely, while Netflix is focused on its film studio and streaming assets, potentially leading to the separation of WBD's cable assets [3] Financial Data - In 2024, gross advertising revenue for cable networks decreased by 5.9% to $20.2 billion, marking the lowest level since 2007 [6] - Affiliate fee revenue fell nearly 3% to approximately $38.7 billion, indicating a decline in what TV operators pay to carry cable networks [6] - The average cable network experienced a 7.1% decline in subscriber base, dropping to 31.4 million homes [6] Strategic Movements - Major media conglomerates are increasingly abandoning cable networks in favor of streaming services, as evidenced by Comcast's planned spinoff of its cable networks into a standalone entity named "Versant" [5] - The launch of ESPN Unlimited and FOX One streaming platforms in August 2025 further accelerates this trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guggenheim raised its price target on FOX Corp. to $85.00 from $75.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting FOX as a top investment idea in the media sector due to its focus on sports and news programming, which are driving revenue and profit growth despite industry challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Guggenheim increased its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA forecast to $452 million from $439 million, and raised its fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate to $3.29 billion from $3.27 billion, driven by stronger-than-expected advertising trends at Fox News and continued pricing power in sports [3] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Drivers - FOX is positioned to benefit from strong advertising demand and moderating subscription declines compared to peers, aided by the rise of "skinny bundles" and an upcoming cycle of distributor renewals where FOX is expected to gain market share [2] - Additional growth catalysts for FOX include a robust content slate featuring the FIFA World Cup and U.S. elections, along with disciplined investments in growth initiatives such as Tubi, FOX One, and sports gambling [2] Group 3: Industry Context - The firm acknowledged that NFL contracts are likely to be renewed at higher costs ahead of their 2027 expiration, but believes the expense increase will be manageable and provide long-term visibility into the 2030s [3]

Core Insights - Fox Corporation (FOXA) is scheduled to report its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on October 30, with earnings estimated at $1.06 per share, reflecting a 26.9% year-over-year decline, while revenues are projected at $3.58 billion, indicating a marginal growth of 0.4% from the previous year [1][9] Financial Performance - The company has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 30.29% [2] - FOXA entered the first quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operational and financial momentum, benefiting from a diversified portfolio across news, sports, and digital entertainment [3] Revenue Drivers - The performance of FOX News and steady affiliate fee trends are expected to have positively impacted results, alongside investments to expand its direct-to-consumer offerings [3] - The launch of FOX One, a unified streaming platform priced at $19.99 per month, is a significant step in the company's digital evolution, although initial marketing and content integration costs may have affected profitability [4] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenues are anticipated to have moderated due to the absence of $270 million in political advertising from the prior year, but strong engagement at FOX News likely provided some offset [5][9] - Key shows and events, including the return of NFL on FOX and college football, are expected to have boosted viewership and pricing power [5] Challenges - FOXA is likely facing near-term headwinds from increased programming and production costs, softer entertainment ad demand, and additional digital spending related to FOX One, which may limit margin expansion [6] Earnings Expectations - According to the Zacks model, FOXA has an Earnings ESP of -7.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a lower likelihood of an earnings beat [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights Fox Corp (FOXA) as a strong investment opportunity due to its market leadership in cable broadcasting, particularly in live sports and news, which attract significant advertising revenue [3][8][12]. Business Segments - Fox operates two main segments: cable network programming and television, with cable network programming revenue projected to grow from $5.0 billion in fiscal 2018 to $6.9 billion in fiscal 2025, reflecting a 5% annual growth rate [4][5]. - The television segment, which includes the FOX broadcast network and Tubi, is expected to see revenue increase from $5.1 billion in fiscal 2018 to $9.3 billion in fiscal 2025, representing a 9% annual growth rate [6]. Market Position - Fox is the largest cable TV broadcaster in the U.S., with FOX News being the top-rated national cable news channel for over 20 years [9][11]. - In July 2025, FOX News averaged 2.4 million viewers in primetime, capturing 63% of the cable news share [17]. Live Sports and Events - Live sports events remain crucial for advertisers, with FOX holding rights to major events like the Super Bowl and FIFA World Cup, which attract massive viewership [12][13][14]. - The Super Bowl LVII in February 2023 had an estimated 113 million viewers, while Super Bowl LIX in February 2025 set a record with 128 million viewers [13]. Digital Distribution - Fox is expanding its digital offerings, including Tubi, which has 100 million monthly active users and a 2.2% market share of all television viewing [21]. - The recently launched FOX One service aims to attract "cordless" consumers by providing access to live events and entertainment without undercutting existing cable subscribers [22]. Financial Performance - Since fiscal 2020, Fox has achieved a 6% annual growth in revenue and a 5% growth in net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) [24]. - The company's NOPAT margin slightly decreased from 16% in 2020 to 15% in 2025, while its return on invested capital (ROIC) improved from 17% to 19% [25]. Shareholder Returns - Fox has returned $1.8 billion in dividends and repurchased $6.6 billion in shares since fiscal 2020, with a new authorization for an additional $5 billion in share repurchases [28][30]. - The combined yield from dividends and share repurchases could reach 4.7% [30]. Balance Sheet Strength - Fox reduced its total debt from $8.5 billion in fiscal 2020 to $7.6 billion in fiscal 2025, while increasing cash and equivalents from $4.6 billion to $5.4 billion [36]. - The adjusted debt net of cash fell from $3.5 billion to $1.4 billion over the same period, indicating a strong financial position [36]. Market Valuation - At a current price of $59/share, the market implies a permanent decline of 20% in NOPAT, which may be overly pessimistic given Fox's historical growth rates [41]. - If NOPAT grows at a modest rate of 1% annually, the stock could see a 39% upside to $82/share [43].

Group 1 - The company is experiencing strong momentum across all brands, with significant growth in advertising and distribution revenues [1] - The strategic decision made in 2019 to sell the majority of entertainment assets to Disney has proven successful, positioning the company favorably in the media ecosystem [1] - The interplay between FOX One and Tubi enhances distribution opportunities, allowing the company to reach consumers and viewers more effectively [1] Group 2 - Tubi has a substantial audience, reaching 60 million cordless customers in the United States, indicating its potential for growth and engagement [2]

Group 1 - The company is experiencing strong momentum across all brands, with significant growth in advertising and distribution revenues [1] - The strategic decision made in 2019 to sell the majority of entertainment assets to Disney has proven to be successful and well-timed [1] - The interplay between FOX One and Tubi enhances distribution opportunities, allowing the company to reach consumers and viewers more effectively [1] Group 2 - Tubi has a substantial audience, reaching 60 million cordless customers in the United States, indicating its significant market presence [2]