An updated edition of the Nov. 11, 2025 article.Over roughly the last 20 years, streaming has evolved from a niche concept into the backbone of the global entertainment ecosystem, fundamentally changing how people consume content across genres. What began as a supplemental option to traditional pay TV is now the primary viewing choice for many households, driven by faster connectivity, improved devices and changing audience habits. This structural shift has opened meaningful opportunities for players such a ...

The American media landscape has officially crossed the Rubicon, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s annual Economics of Basic Cable report from its Kagan research unit. It’s a grim read. The U.S. cable network industry has formally entered the “decline stage of its life cycle,” a transition defined by falling revenues, shrinking viewership, and an unprecedented restructuring of legacy assets. While the sector faces a tough financial trajectory, the defining event is the high-stakes bidding war ...

Core Viewpoint - Guggenheim raised its price target on FOX Corp. to $85.00 from $75.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting FOX as a top investment idea in the media sector due to its focus on sports and news programming, which are driving revenue and profit growth despite industry challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Guggenheim increased its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA forecast to $452 million from $439 million, and raised its fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate to $3.29 billion from $3.27 billion, driven by stronger-than-expected advertising trends at Fox News and continued pricing power in sports [3] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Drivers - FOX is positioned to benefit from strong advertising demand and moderating subscription declines compared to peers, aided by the rise of "skinny bundles" and an upcoming cycle of distributor renewals where FOX is expected to gain market share [2] - Additional growth catalysts for FOX include a robust content slate featuring the FIFA World Cup and U.S. elections, along with disciplined investments in growth initiatives such as Tubi, FOX One, and sports gambling [2] Group 3: Industry Context - The firm acknowledged that NFL contracts are likely to be renewed at higher costs ahead of their 2027 expiration, but believes the expense increase will be manageable and provide long-term visibility into the 2030s [3]

Core Insights - Fox Corporation (FOXA) is scheduled to report its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on October 30, with earnings estimated at $1.06 per share, reflecting a 26.9% year-over-year decline, while revenues are projected at $3.58 billion, indicating a marginal growth of 0.4% from the previous year [1][9] Financial Performance - The company has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 30.29% [2] - FOXA entered the first quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operational and financial momentum, benefiting from a diversified portfolio across news, sports, and digital entertainment [3] Revenue Drivers - The performance of FOX News and steady affiliate fee trends are expected to have positively impacted results, alongside investments to expand its direct-to-consumer offerings [3] - The launch of FOX One, a unified streaming platform priced at $19.99 per month, is a significant step in the company's digital evolution, although initial marketing and content integration costs may have affected profitability [4] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenues are anticipated to have moderated due to the absence of $270 million in political advertising from the prior year, but strong engagement at FOX News likely provided some offset [5][9] - Key shows and events, including the return of NFL on FOX and college football, are expected to have boosted viewership and pricing power [5] Challenges - FOXA is likely facing near-term headwinds from increased programming and production costs, softer entertainment ad demand, and additional digital spending related to FOX One, which may limit margin expansion [6] Earnings Expectations - According to the Zacks model, FOXA has an Earnings ESP of -7.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a lower likelihood of an earnings beat [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights Fox Corp (FOXA) as a strong investment opportunity due to its market leadership in cable broadcasting, particularly in live sports and news, which attract significant advertising revenue [3][8][12]. Business Segments - Fox operates two main segments: cable network programming and television, with cable network programming revenue projected to grow from $5.0 billion in fiscal 2018 to $6.9 billion in fiscal 2025, reflecting a 5% annual growth rate [4][5]. - The television segment, which includes the FOX broadcast network and Tubi, is expected to see revenue increase from $5.1 billion in fiscal 2018 to $9.3 billion in fiscal 2025, representing a 9% annual growth rate [6]. Market Position - Fox is the largest cable TV broadcaster in the U.S., with FOX News being the top-rated national cable news channel for over 20 years [9][11]. - In July 2025, FOX News averaged 2.4 million viewers in primetime, capturing 63% of the cable news share [17]. Live Sports and Events - Live sports events remain crucial for advertisers, with FOX holding rights to major events like the Super Bowl and FIFA World Cup, which attract massive viewership [12][13][14]. - The Super Bowl LVII in February 2023 had an estimated 113 million viewers, while Super Bowl LIX in February 2025 set a record with 128 million viewers [13]. Digital Distribution - Fox is expanding its digital offerings, including Tubi, which has 100 million monthly active users and a 2.2% market share of all television viewing [21]. - The recently launched FOX One service aims to attract "cordless" consumers by providing access to live events and entertainment without undercutting existing cable subscribers [22]. Financial Performance - Since fiscal 2020, Fox has achieved a 6% annual growth in revenue and a 5% growth in net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) [24]. - The company's NOPAT margin slightly decreased from 16% in 2020 to 15% in 2025, while its return on invested capital (ROIC) improved from 17% to 19% [25]. Shareholder Returns - Fox has returned $1.8 billion in dividends and repurchased $6.6 billion in shares since fiscal 2020, with a new authorization for an additional $5 billion in share repurchases [28][30]. - The combined yield from dividends and share repurchases could reach 4.7% [30]. Balance Sheet Strength - Fox reduced its total debt from $8.5 billion in fiscal 2020 to $7.6 billion in fiscal 2025, while increasing cash and equivalents from $4.6 billion to $5.4 billion [36]. - The adjusted debt net of cash fell from $3.5 billion to $1.4 billion over the same period, indicating a strong financial position [36]. Market Valuation - At a current price of $59/share, the market implies a permanent decline of 20% in NOPAT, which may be overly pessimistic given Fox's historical growth rates [41]. - If NOPAT grows at a modest rate of 1% annually, the stock could see a 39% upside to $82/share [43].

Group 1 - The company is experiencing strong momentum across all brands, with significant growth in advertising and distribution revenues [1] - The strategic decision made in 2019 to sell the majority of entertainment assets to Disney has proven successful, positioning the company favorably in the media ecosystem [1] - The interplay between FOX One and Tubi enhances distribution opportunities, allowing the company to reach consumers and viewers more effectively [1] Group 2 - Tubi has a substantial audience, reaching 60 million cordless customers in the United States, indicating its potential for growth and engagement [2]

Group 1 - The company is experiencing strong momentum across all brands, with significant growth in advertising and distribution revenues [1] - The strategic decision made in 2019 to sell the majority of entertainment assets to Disney has proven to be successful and well-timed [1] - The interplay between FOX One and Tubi enhances distribution opportunities, allowing the company to reach consumers and viewers more effectively [1] Group 2 - Tubi has a substantial audience, reaching 60 million cordless customers in the United States, indicating its significant market presence [2]

Core Insights - FOX One is a new streaming service priced at $19.99/month or $199.99/year, targeting over 65 million U.S. households outside traditional cable bundles [1][2] - The platform aims to provide a personalized viewing experience with live programming, news, sports, and entertainment, leveraging advanced technology and AI integrations [3][6][7] Pricing and Bundling Options - FOX One offers a 7-day free trial and the option to bundle with B1G+ or FOX Nation for added value [1][11] - Starting October 2, customers can bundle FOX One with ESPN DTC Unlimited for $39.99/month, providing access to a wide range of ESPN content [12] Technological Advancements - The platform builds on FOX's successful live-streaming technology, exemplified by the Super Bowl LIX broadcast, which reached 15.5 million peak concurrent viewers [5] - FOX One incorporates AI for personalized content delivery, enhanced search capabilities, and user-friendly features [6][16] Content Offerings - FOX One features a robust lineup of live sports, news, and entertainment, including 24/7 access to FOX News and major sporting events [8][9] - The service includes a variety of programming from FOX's extensive portfolio, catering to diverse audience interests [15] Accessibility and User Experience - FOX One is available on multiple platforms, including mobile, web, and connected TVs, ensuring ease of access for users [10] - The platform allows users to record live content without storage limits and offers features to catch up on missed highlights [8][10] Marketing Strategy - The launch campaign emphasizes FOX's strength in live programming and targets cord-cutters through digital-first strategies [14]

Core Viewpoint - ESPN and Fox are launching a joint streaming service bundle for $39.99 per month, starting October 2, which combines their direct-to-consumer offerings to provide a wide range of sports, news, and entertainment content [1][3][20] Group 1: Streaming Service Details - The bundle will include access to ESPN's upcoming subscription platform and Fox's new streaming service, FOX One, both available individually from August 21 [3][20] - Subscribers will have access to a comprehensive portfolio of content, including major sports leagues such as NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and college sports, as well as events like the FIFA World Cup [6][10] - ESPN's platform will feature approximately 47,000 live events annually, along with replays and original programming [8][9] Group 2: Strategic Collaboration - The collaboration aims to enhance the availability of ESPN's sports programming and provide a seamless viewing experience for fans [4][21] - The partnership is seen as a response to the previous failed venture, Venu Sports, which was intended to offer a single sports-focused streaming subscription but faced regulatory challenges [15][20] - The new bundle is positioned as a more flexible option for viewers who have cut the cord or never subscribed to traditional cable [13][21]

Core Points - ESPN and FOX One have announced a bundled streaming service for $39.99 per month starting October 2, 2025 [1][4] - The collaboration aims to enhance consumer access to premium sports content, including major leagues and events [2][3] - The ESPN DTC offering will provide access to all ESPN networks and 47,000 live events annually, along with on-demand content [2][5] ESPN DTC Offering - ESPN's direct-to-consumer service will launch on August 21, 2025, offering a full suite of networks and services [4][5] - The service includes an enhanced ESPN App with features like game stats, betting information, and personalized content [5] FOX One Service - FOX One will aggregate all FOX's news, sports, and entertainment content into a single streaming platform [3][6] - The service targets cord-cutters and will provide live and on-demand access to various FOX brands [6][8] Consumer Experience - The bundle aims to streamline the user experience for sports fans, providing access to a wide range of sports content [2][3] - FOX One will utilize technology from Tubi Media Group to enhance personalization and user engagement [6]