Key Takeaways FOXA is expected to benefit from strong NFL viewership and FOX News ratings supporting reach and ad demand.Year-over-year comparisons are expected to be impacted by the absence of prior political advertising revenues.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FOXA's Q4 2025 EPS is pegged at 46 cents, unchanged over the past 30 days.Fox Corporation (FOXA) is set to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 4.For the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 46 ...

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is heavily influenced by broadcasting rights, which are controlled by a limited number of players, highlighting the competitive landscape and the significance of rights acquisition in driving market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The emergence of Main Street Sports Group as a challenger in the media industry indicates a shift in competitive dynamics, potentially impacting established players like FOX Corporation [1]. - The research team emphasizes the importance of identifying market inefficiencies and undervalued opportunities within the media sector to generate long-term investment returns [1]. Group 2: Investment Approach - The investment strategy combines top-down macroeconomic themes with bottom-up fundamental analysis to create robust investment theses based on attractive valuations [1]. - Valuation methods employed include both extreme bear and conservative bull cases, which aim to provide a margin of safety for investors, ensuring consistent risk-adjusted returns [1].

New York-based Fox Corporation (FOXA) produces and distributes news, sports, and entertainment through FOX News Media, FOX Sports, FOX Entertainment, FOX Television Stations, and Tubi, an ad-supported streaming platform. Commanding a market capitalization of approximately $32.7 billion, the company operates 29 full-power broadcast stations, including 11 duopolies, and reaches audiences via cable, satellite, and digital channels. More News from Barchart Fox is preparing to release its fiscal 2026 Q2 ea ...

Group 1: Fox and Flutter's FanDuel - Fox has the option to acquire an 18.6% stake in Flutter's FanDuel, which holds over 30% market share in U.S. sports betting [2][3] - The option originated from Fox's 2019 investment in The Stars Group, which was later folded into FanDuel after Flutter's acquisition [3] - CEO Lachlan Murdoch confirmed Fox's intention to exercise the option, with a potential FanDuel valuation around $35 billion [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Other News - Analysts view the FanDuel option as a hidden asset value for Fox, with varying opinions on the timing for exercising the option [5] - LifeMD and GoodRx stocks rose after adding Novo Nordisk's Wegovy weight-loss pill to their offerings, priced at $149 per month [5] - Samsung and SK hynix are expected to raise server memory prices by up to 70% in Q1 due to increased AI demand [6]

Industry Overview - Streaming has evolved into a primary viewing choice for many households, driven by faster connectivity and changing audience habits, creating opportunities for companies like Sony, Fox, and Roku [2] - The appeal of streaming includes convenience and control, leading platforms to invest in original programming and technology to enhance viewer engagement [3] - Industry projections suggest global streaming revenues could approach $190 billion by 2029, supported by nearly 2 billion subscriptions worldwide [4] Company Insights: Sony Group Corporation - Sony's strategic move into streaming began with the acquisition of Crunchyroll for approximately $1.17 billion, creating a global anime platform [7] - By mid-2025, Crunchyroll had over 17 million paid subscribers, showcasing the growth of anime as a mainstream category [8] - Sony Pictures Core focuses on delivering premium film content directly to consumers, enhancing the value of Sony devices [9] - Sony is expanding geographically through partnerships, including launching dedicated subscription channels on platforms like Prime Video [10] Company Insights: Fox Corporation - Fox's streaming strategy gained momentum with the acquisition of Tubi, a free ad-supported platform, which has become central to its direct-to-consumer approach [11] - Tubi reached quarterly profitability in Q1 of fiscal 2026, achieving 27% revenue growth driven by an 18% increase in viewership [13] - Tubi aims for a long-term margin framework of 20-25%, positioning it as a significant future earnings growth engine [14] - The platform is capitalizing on younger viewers migrating to free streaming, enhancing its content slate and advertising capabilities [15] Company Insights: Roku - Roku transitioned from hardware to an end-to-end streaming platform, enhancing its ecosystem for content distribution and advertising [16] - In Q3 2025, Roku's total streaming hours reached 36.5 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, supporting ad inventory growth [17] - Roku's streaming services distribution is gaining traction, with improved content discovery and a focus on live sports to drive subscriber growth [18] - The launch of Howdy, a low-cost ad-free service, broadens Roku's audience and enhances margins as subscriptions scale [19]

Core Insights - Tubi has achieved profitability in 2023 by attracting younger audiences willing to watch ads, positioning itself as a strong competitor in the streaming market [1][7] Streaming Market Dynamics - Tubi accounted for 2.1% of total streaming minutes in November, surpassing platforms like Peacock and HBO Max, while YouTube remains the leader [2] - The rise in streaming costs has led consumers to seek cheaper, ad-supported options, with many canceling subscriptions rather than cutting cable [3][4] Audience Demographics - Nearly 60% of Tubi's audience consists of millennials and Generation Z, with a significant portion being multicultural [5] - Tubi has over 100 million monthly active users and streams 1 billion hours of content each month, compared to Netflix's 300 million subscribers [4] Content Strategy - Tubi enhances its library through licensing and produces original content on a smaller scale, including airing NFL games [6] - The platform offers over 300,000 titles, with a notable focus on horror content, boasting the largest collection in that genre [11] Financial Performance - Tubi reported a 27% revenue growth for the fiscal quarter ending September 30, driven by an 18% increase in total view time [7] - Fox's stock has risen over 40% this year, contrasting with the performance of other media stocks amid market uncertainty [8] Competitive Positioning - Tubi differentiates itself by being 100% ad-supported, unlike other platforms that offer ad-supported tiers [15] - The platform's viewer engagement is higher, with 95% of users actively choosing what to watch, making them more receptive to advertisements [14] Targeting Younger Audiences - Tubi has launched initiatives like "Tubi for Creators" to attract younger viewers and has signed deals with popular YouTube creators [17][18] - The platform has successfully engaged younger audiences with content like "Sidelined," which has attracted nearly 20 million viewers [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Guggenheim raised its price target on FOX Corp. to $85.00 from $75.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting FOX as a top investment idea in the media sector due to its focus on sports and news programming, which are driving revenue and profit growth despite industry challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Guggenheim increased its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA forecast to $452 million from $439 million, and raised its fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate to $3.29 billion from $3.27 billion, driven by stronger-than-expected advertising trends at Fox News and continued pricing power in sports [3] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Drivers - FOX is positioned to benefit from strong advertising demand and moderating subscription declines compared to peers, aided by the rise of "skinny bundles" and an upcoming cycle of distributor renewals where FOX is expected to gain market share [2] - Additional growth catalysts for FOX include a robust content slate featuring the FIFA World Cup and U.S. elections, along with disciplined investments in growth initiatives such as Tubi, FOX One, and sports gambling [2] Group 3: Industry Context - The firm acknowledged that NFL contracts are likely to be renewed at higher costs ahead of their 2027 expiration, but believes the expense increase will be manageable and provide long-term visibility into the 2030s [3]

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum i ...

Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth, with stock prices increasing by 40% [1] - Fiscal year '25 was a record year for the company, achieving record revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow [2] - The company differentiates itself from peers by viewing its assets in a unique way, rather than conforming to traditional peer group comparisons [3] Financial Performance - Record revenue and EBITDA were achieved in fiscal '25, indicating strong financial health [2] - Free cash flow also reached a record high, providing a solid foundation for future growth [2] Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on maintaining momentum as it looks ahead to fiscal '26 [1] - Priorities for the upcoming year will be crucial in sustaining growth and leveraging the strong performance of the previous year [1]

Core Thesis - Fox Corporation is experiencing a bullish sentiment driven by its streaming platform Tubi, which is gaining market share and is expected to contribute to profitability in the coming years [1][4]. Company Overview - Fox Corporation operates in the news, sports, and entertainment sectors in the United States, with its stock trading at $65.50 as of November 28th [1][2]. - The trailing and forward P/E ratios for Fox Corporation are 14.72 and 14.79, respectively [1]. Tubi's Performance - Tubi has achieved a 2.2% share of total TV viewing as of October, making it the sixth-largest streaming service in the U.S., surpassing established brands like NBC's Peacock and Warner Bros. Discovery [2][3]. - Tubi's growth is notable as it operates as a free ad-supported service, appealing to cord-cutters and younger demographics seeking free, on-demand content [3][4]. Future Expectations - There are expectations that Tubi will start generating incremental profits in 2026 and 2027, which is central to Fox's growth narrative [4]. - Tubi's ability to increase engagement, expand advertising inventory, and utilize Fox's content pipeline positions it as a strategic growth engine for the company [4].