Market Overview - The S&P and Nasdaq are near all-time highs, with the Dow also close to its peak, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is poised for an upside breakout [1] - Major indexes have surged by double digits since early April, with the Dow up 22.7%, S&P up 33.8%, Nasdaq up 46.9%, and Russell 2000 up 32.7% [2] - Despite significant gains, most major indexes are only up single digits for the year, indicating potential for further growth [2] Historical Context - The S&P 500 experienced a 23.3% increase last year, marking the second consecutive year of over 20% gains, a rare occurrence [4] - The last time the S&P had two consecutive years of 20%+ gains was in 1995-1996, which preceded a five-year rally with a total increase of 220% [8] Current Economic Indicators - Inflation has been moderate, with core inflation at 3.1% year-over-year, down from 3.3% [14] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is at 3.7% year-over-year, showing slight improvement [15] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, with a high likelihood of a September cut at 92.6% [16][15] Earnings Outlook - S&P earnings are projected to grow, with Q1'25 earnings up 12.2%, Q2 at 12.0%, Q3 at 4.8%, Q4 at 6.3%, and Q1'26 at 8.5% [18] - Despite previous market fears, aggregate earnings estimates remain strong, reinforcing the notion that earnings drive stock prices [19] Small-Cap Market Dynamics - The small-cap sector is experiencing a rally, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts and favorable tax provisions from a recently passed budget bill [20][22] - Small-caps typically have higher debt levels and will benefit significantly from lower interest rates, enhancing their growth potential [21] Technology Sector Insights - The current market is witnessing a tech boom, particularly driven by advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), which is expected to be transformative across various industries [10][11] - The AI boom is supported by real earnings and growth potential, contributing to a positive market outlook [11] Investment Strategies - Proven stock-picking strategies, such as focusing on Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy stocks, have historically outperformed the market [24] - Stocks making new highs tend to continue rising, with an average annual return of 37.6% compared to the S&P's 7.7% over the past 25 years [30] - Small-cap growth stocks have also shown significant outperformance, with an average annual return of 44.3% [31]

Market Reaction to Tariff News - The announcement of a tariff plan on April 2 led to significant market corrections, with the Dow down -13.9%, S&P down -17.8%, and Nasdaq down -23.4% by April 7 [1] - Following a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced on April 9, the S&P experienced its largest one-day advance (+9.52%) in over 15 years, leading to a double-digit recovery across major indexes [2][4] - By the end of the recovery period, the Dow was up 16.5%, S&P up 23.2%, and Nasdaq up 29.9% from their lows [2] Trade Agreements and Economic Outlook - The U.S. and China reached a "framework deal" that reduced tariffs significantly, with U.S. tariffs on China dropping from 145% to 30% and China's from 125% to 10% [4] - Treasury Secretary indicated the possibility of extending the tariff pause for countries showing "good faith" in negotiations, reflecting a shift from panic to optimism in trade relations [5] Historical Context and Market Trends - Historical data shows that pullbacks and corrections are common, with pullbacks occurring 3-4 times a year and corrections about once a year [7] - Previous bear markets have led to substantial recoveries, with the S&P gaining 74.9% within a year after the 2020 bear market and 22.4% after the 2022 bear market [9] Earnings and Inflation Trends - Despite tariff fears, earnings growth remains strong, with Q1'25 S&P earnings up 11.9% and forecasts for continued growth in subsequent quarters [29] - Recent inflation reports indicate a decline in core inflation to 2.8% y/y, with the Fed acknowledging significant progress towards its 2% target [26][27] Investment Strategies and Stock Performance - Stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy have historically outperformed the market, achieving an average annual return of over 24% [34] - Strategies focusing on small-cap growth and stocks making new highs have shown significant returns, with small-cap growth averaging 44.3% over the past 25 years [40][39]