USA | Internet Equity Research June 24, 2025 Cannes 2025: Creative Disruption in the AI Era We tuned in remotely to the annual Cannes Lions Festival of Creativity, which brings together the top advertising & marketing leaders. We left encouraged by AI's ability to innovate ad formats & performance by streamlining creative production and campaign execution. We are bullish on META, GOOGL, & AMZN's position to benefit as advertisers & marketers embrace AI to reach broader audiences across more formats with the ...

Core Insights - Adobe is enhancing its enterprise focus through the Digital Experience segment, integrating creativity, data, and AI for personalized engagement, positioning itself for long-term growth as enterprises invest in marketing automation [1][5] Digital Experience Segment - The Digital Experience segment saw a 10% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.46 billion in Q2 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.56% [5][10] - Subscription revenues within this segment rose 11% to $1.33 billion, driven by the adoption of GenStudio and Firefly Services, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.74% [5][10] Product Innovations - Adobe's GenStudio and Firefly Services are central to its Customer Experience Orchestration (CXO) strategy, facilitating campaign planning, content creation, and large-scale asset generation [2][3] - Recent upgrades to the CXO platform include automated ad deployment across major platforms and enhancements in content generation capabilities [3][10] - The introduction of LLM Optimizer and Agent Orchestrator aims to improve asset discoverability and automate campaign execution through AI workflows [3] User Engagement - Monthly active users for Acrobat and Express exceeded 700 million, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase, with a notable 11x growth in the adoption of Express features within Acrobat [4] Competitive Landscape - Adobe faces increasing competition from Salesforce and HubSpot, both enhancing their AI-driven marketing platforms [6][7] - Salesforce's Marketing Cloud and Data Cloud offer real-time personalization and campaign orchestration, making it a strong alternative to Adobe [6] - HubSpot is gaining popularity among small to medium businesses with its all-in-one CRM suite, integrating more AI capabilities [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Adobe shares have declined 11.9% year-to-date, contrasting with a 1.2% return in the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector and an 11.1% rise in the Zacks Computer - Software industry [8] - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 6.79X, higher than the sector's 6.33X, indicating a premium valuation [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 2025 earnings is $5.08 per share, reflecting a 9.25% year-over-year growth [13] - The fiscal 2025 earnings estimate stands at $20.36 per share, indicating a 10.53% growth over fiscal 2024 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Salesforce is positioned as a stronger investment option compared to Adobe, driven by its focus on AI, unified platform strategy, and favorable earnings outlook [19]. Salesforce Overview - Salesforce dominates the customer relationship management market, maintaining the largest share according to Gartner [2]. - The company has expanded its platform through acquisitions, aiming to become a broader enterprise software provider focused on AI, data, and collaboration [3]. - AI is central to Salesforce's growth strategy, with the introduction of Einstein GPT in 2023 to enhance automation and customer experiences [4]. - The launch of Agentforce has generated $100 million in annualized revenues within two quarters, with over 4,000 customers utilizing it [5]. - Salesforce's annual recurring revenue (ARR) from Data Cloud has grown over 120% year over year [5]. - Despite an 8% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 fiscal 2026, which is slower than previous years, adjusted EPS rose 6%, indicating operational soundness [6]. Adobe Overview - Adobe reported a 10% revenue increase to $5.71 billion in Q1 fiscal 2025, with non-GAAP EPS growing 13.4% to $5.08 [7]. - The company leads in creative software, with AI contributing significantly to growth, adding over $125 million in ARR last quarter [8]. - Adobe is expanding its AI offerings with tools like GenStudio and Firefly Services, aimed at enhancing marketing efficiency [9]. - The company plans to monetize Firefly through tiered pricing within Creative Cloud and is increasing sales efforts to various sectors [10]. - However, Adobe's second-quarter guidance indicates potential margin pressure, with expected non-GAAP EPS between $4.95 and $5.00, down from Q1 [11]. Earnings Estimates Comparison - Salesforce's earnings estimates have remained stable over the past 60 days, indicating confidence in its earnings stability [12]. - In contrast, Adobe's earnings estimates have been lowered, raising concerns about near-term profitability [12]. - Long-term earnings growth projections show Salesforce with a CAGR of 12.7%, slightly better than Adobe's 12.4% [14]. Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Salesforce stock has increased by 26.7%, while Adobe shares have decreased by 7.5%, reflecting stronger investor confidence in Salesforce [16]. - From a valuation perspective, Salesforce trades at 6.32 times forward sales, compared to Adobe's 7.17 times, suggesting more upside potential for Salesforce [17].

Core Viewpoint - Adobe's stock has increased by 19% in a month due to its focus on Generative AI and innovative portfolio, but faces challenges from competition and monetization issues [1][3] Company Performance - Adobe's AI business is small compared to competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet, with Microsoft benefiting from Azure AI services and Alphabet from its AI infrastructure [2] - Adobe shares have underperformed compared to Microsoft and DocuSign, which returned 24.9% and 20.9% respectively, while Adobe outperformed Alphabet's 8.2% return [3] Valuation Metrics - Adobe's stock is considered overvalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 7.28X, higher than the sector average of 6.14X and competitors like Salesforce and DocuSign [6] AI Portfolio Development - Adobe has expanded its AI offerings with products like Adobe GenStudio and Firefly Services, aimed at enhancing marketing collaboration [9] - The company plans to monetize Firefly through new Creative Cloud offerings and is integrating AI across its portfolio, which is expected to drive top-line growth [10] Financial Guidance - Adobe's AI business is projected to grow from over $125 million in Q1 FY25, expected to double by the end of FY25 [11] - For FY25, Adobe anticipates Digital Media segment revenues between $17.25 billion and $17.40 billion, with total revenue guidance between $23.30 billion and $23.55 billion [12][13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FY25 earnings is $20.36 per share, reflecting a 10.53% growth over FY24, although it has seen a decline in estimates recently [14] - The estimate for Q2 FY25 earnings is $4.96 per share, suggesting a 10.71% growth from the previous year [16]

Core Viewpoint - Both Alphabet and Adobe are integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into their core offerings, with Alphabet focusing on search and cloud services, while Adobe enhances its creative products with AI capabilities [1][2]. AI Market Outlook - Global spending on AI-supporting technologies is projected to exceed $749 billion by 2028, with enterprises expected to contribute 67% of the $227 billion AI spending in 2025 [2]. Alphabet's AI Initiatives - Alphabet's AI integration in Search has seen significant growth, with Circle to Search available on 250 million devices and a 40% increase in usage during Q1 2025. Monthly visual searches have risen by 5 billion since October 2024, and AI Overview is utilized by over 1.5 billion people monthly [5][6]. - Google Cloud is becoming a preferred choice for enterprises deploying AI agents, supported by tools like the Agent Development Kit and Agent Designer [6]. Adobe's AI Developments - Adobe has expanded its AI portfolio with Adobe GenStudio and Firefly Services, aiding brands in marketing campaigns. The company has launched AI-powered features in Premiere Pro and After Effects, enhancing video and audio capabilities [9][10][11]. - Adobe's AI business was valued at over $125 million at the end of Q1 2025, representing a low single-digit percentage of total revenues of $4.23 billion, with expectations to double by the end of fiscal 2025 [12]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alphabet's 2025 earnings is $9.43 per share, reflecting an 8% increase over the past 30 days and a 17.29% rise from 2024 [13]. - Adobe's fiscal 2025 earnings estimate has slightly decreased to $20.36 per share, indicating a 10.53% growth over fiscal 2024 [14]. Performance Comparison - Both companies have consistently beaten earnings estimates, with Alphabet showing a higher average surprise of 14.64% compared to Adobe's 2.53% [15]. - In terms of valuation, Alphabet is trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 5.98X, lower than Adobe's 7.27X, indicating that Alphabet is relatively cheaper [16]. Conclusion - Despite regulatory challenges, Alphabet is experiencing strong growth in cloud and search services, bolstered by a dominant market position and over 270 million paid subscriptions [18]. - Adobe faces stiff competition in the AI space and struggles with monetization of its AI solutions, leading to a weaker outlook compared to Alphabet [18][19].

Core Insights - Adobe and Autodesk are leveraging AI to enhance their creative software offerings and improve workflow efficiency, with the creative software market projected to reach $10.25 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 1.54% [1] - Both companies have faced stock declines due to tech sell-offs, with Adobe down 17.3% YTD and Autodesk down 8.6% [2] Adobe Insights - Adobe's growth is driven by strong demand for its Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Adobe Experience Cloud, with an AI business expected to double by the end of fiscal 2025 [5][8] - The company has expanded its AI portfolio with new tools like Adobe GenStudio and Firefly Services, enhancing collaboration and productivity for brands [6][7] - For fiscal 2025, Adobe anticipates total revenues between $23.30 billion and $23.55 billion, with Digital Media revenues projected at $17.25 billion to $17.40 billion [8] Autodesk Insights - Autodesk is benefiting from new business growth and strong subscription renewal rates, with a focus on cloud-based products and design suites [9] - The company has made significant progress in high-growth segments like Construction and Manufacturing, adding nearly 400 new construction customers in Q4 of fiscal 2025 [10] - Autodesk expects revenues for fiscal 2026 to be between $6.895 billion and $6.965 billion, with billings estimated at $7.06 billion to $7.21 billion [12] Earnings Estimates - Adobe's fiscal 2025 earnings estimate is $20.36 per share, reflecting a 10.53% increase from fiscal 2024 [13] - Autodesk's fiscal 2026 earnings estimate remains steady at $9.48 per share, indicating an 11.92% growth over 2024 [14] Valuation Insights - Both companies are considered overvalued, with Adobe trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 6.44X, lower than Autodesk's 8.09X [16] - Autodesk holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), while Adobe has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a stronger investment case for Autodesk [18]