USA | Software Equity Research '26 Software Playbook – Waiting Patiently on Shore to Ride the AI Waves We recommend investors stay underweight software as growth decelerates and lags versus other sectors like semis. We believe '26 will be another year of gradual AI monetization, with more meaningful growth contribution/ acceleration needed to ease AI disintermediation fears, thus requiring more selectivity. Top picks - Mega Cap: MSFT, META; Large Cap: INTU, TEAM, ORCL; Mid Cap: PCOR, U, WIX; Small Cap: UPWK ...

Core Insights - ServiceNow (NOW) is actively expanding its portfolio through multiple acquisitions, including Logik.io, data.world, and Moveworks, enhancing its capabilities in AI-powered solutions and enterprise data governance [1] - The company has crossed a significant milestone with its Security and Risk business, achieving over $1 billion in annual contract value in Q3 2025 [2] - The acquisition of Veza strengthens NOW's security offerings by providing advanced identity governance capabilities, which will integrate with ServiceNow's existing workflows and AI systems [3] - ServiceNow's acquisition of Armis for $7.75 billion enhances its security portfolio, particularly in cyber exposure management, and is expected to drive AI adoption [4] - The company has raised its subscription revenue guidance for 2025 to between $12.835 billion and $12.845 billion, indicating a 20% growth on a non-GAAP constant currency basis [5] Financial Performance - ServiceNow's subscription revenue growth is projected to slow to 20% in 2025, down from 23% in 2024, due to tightening budgets in U.S. federal agencies [6] - The company's share price has decreased by 27.4% over the past year, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which returned 26.2% [11] - The forward 12-month price/sales ratio for ServiceNow is 12.01X, significantly higher than the sector average of 7.31X, indicating that the stock may be overvalued [14] Competitive Landscape - ServiceNow faces strong competition from Atlassian and Salesforce, both of which are enhancing their offerings in enterprise collaboration and AI capabilities [7][9] - Atlassian is focusing on subscription-based solutions and has seen significant enterprise penetration, with over 500 customers spending more than $1 million annually [8] - Salesforce reported a 10% year-over-year increase in subscription and support revenues, driven by its AI products, indicating robust growth in its cloud business [10]

Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) ranks among the best AI stocks to buy according to analysts. On December 4, Piper Sandler reaffirmed its Overweight rating and $315 price target for Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) following the company’s third-quarter results, noting solid advancements in its artificial intelligence products. Pixabay/Public Domain The CRM powerhouse reported Q3 revenue of $10.3 billion, a 9% year-over-year rise, as well as operational cash flow of $2.3 billion, up 17% year-over-year, along with ...

Core Insights - Salesforce's Agentforce is experiencing significant growth, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $540 million in Q3 FY26, representing a 330% year-over-year increase [1][9]. Group 1: Agentforce Performance - Since its launch, Salesforce has closed over 18,500 Agentforce deals, with 9,500 being paid transactions, indicating strong market adoption [2]. - More than 50% of new Agentforce bookings are from existing customers, showcasing customer retention and expansion [2]. - Agentforce has processed 3.2 trillion tokens since launch, with 540 billion tokens processed in October alone, reflecting a 25% sequential increase [2]. - The platform has achieved 1.2 billion LLM calls to date, with over 200 million calls processed in Q3 FY26, indicating robust early adoption [3]. Group 2: Business Model and Revenue Growth - The consumption-based model, supported by flexible payment options like Flex Credits, is driving demand for Agentforce, which may enhance recurring revenue growth over time [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Microsoft and ServiceNow are also advancing AI automation in the enterprise market, with Microsoft integrating AI features into Dynamics 365 and ServiceNow automating IT service management and customer support [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - Salesforce shares have declined by 2.5% year-to-date, compared to a 4.9% decline in the Zacks Computer – Software industry [7]. - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 5.47, which is below the industry average of 7.55, indicating potential undervaluation [10]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Salesforce's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings suggests year-over-year increases of approximately 15.10% and 10.53%, respectively, with recent upward revisions [13].

整理 | 华卫 "我们不再需要那么多人手。"作为全球市值最高的企业级软件公司之一，Salesforce 曾大举部署 AI 并裁 撤技术人员的数量，将客户支持团队的人员配置从 9000 人缩减到约 5000 人。过去一年间，Salesforce 首席执行官 Marc Benioff 一直对外宣称，旗下核心 AI 产品 Agentforce 能够借助大语言模型的技术优势 实现工作流程自动化，为企业节省成本。 然而如今，他们似乎后悔了。 据外媒报道，近期，Salesforce 的高管们客户传递了另一番截然不同的信号：当 Agentforce 不过度依赖 大语言模型时，运行效果反而会更好。 1路线大反转：用基础自动化替代 AI 推理 "一年前，我们所有人都对大语言模型深信不疑。" Salesforce 产品营销高级副总裁 Sanjna Parulekar 坦 言，Salesforce 已在 Agentforce 中引入了基础的 "确定性" 自动化技术，以此提升软件的可靠性。这意味 着该产品的决策逻辑将基于预设指令，而非 AI 模型所采用的推理与解读机制。 比如上周，有用户向 Salesforce 提交请求，希望解决与 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that global liquidity is continuously improving, which is expected to enhance equity asset returns, particularly in the context of AI-related software and edge applications [1][7][11] - The report suggests that the growth space for small-cap and growth sectors is likely to expand due to synchronized global monetary policy easing [7][11] - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI models, particularly with the release of Gemini 3.0 and GPT-5.2, which are expected to drive substantial commercial opportunities in AI applications [21][28][39] Group 2 - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Blue Sky Technology and Spring Wind Power, which are expected to benefit from AI-related growth [8][65] - It also mentions companies like Jieshun Technology and Kaige Precision Machinery, which are positioned to capitalize on AI-driven product releases and innovations [7][65] - The report notes that the valuation of small-cap stocks remains low, with PE ratios for the National Index 2000 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index at 57.1x and 41.21x respectively, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [65]

Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) is among the most undervalued tech giants to buy according to hedge funds. On December 24, TheFly reported that Barron’s, in its Stock Picks column, stated that although the software sector has been volatile over the past few years, Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) could rally as AI-related concerns ease and the company’s management remains focused on improving profitability. The report cites research from prominent analysts, including Oakmark Funds portfolio manager Bill Nygren and ...

Key Takeaways NOW is showing stronger growth and execution than Salesforce as enterprises expand digital workflows.NOW closed 103 deals above $1M ACV in Q3 2025, while customers generating over $5M ACV continued to climb.CRM's AI products drove $1.4B in Q3 recurring revenues; overall sales growth has slowed to single digits.Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) are two of the most important enterprise cloud software companies, helping large organizations modernize operations, automate workflows and manage c ...

Core Viewpoint - Salesforce has shifted its strategy from relying heavily on generative AI to implementing more deterministic automation techniques in its Agentforce product, indicating a reconsideration of the effectiveness of large language models in business applications [2][4][15]. Group 1: Strategic Shift - Salesforce reduced its customer support team from 9,000 to approximately 5,000, citing cost savings through AI automation [2]. - The company has introduced basic "deterministic" automation in Agentforce to enhance reliability, moving away from the unpredictability associated with large language models [4]. - Salesforce's recent communications suggest that when Agentforce does not overly depend on large language models, its performance improves [3]. Group 2: Customer Feedback and Issues - Customers have reported various technical issues with Agentforce, including a phenomenon referred to as "hallucination," where the AI produces incorrect outputs [7]. - The cost of using Agentforce is high, with each interaction costing $2, leading to complaints about operational expenses [7]. - Vivint, a customer of Agentforce, experienced stability issues, prompting them to implement deterministic triggers to ensure consistent service delivery [8]. Group 3: Technical Limitations - Salesforce's CTO acknowledged that using basic automation can lower operational costs and improve reliability, but noted that exceeding eight instructions can lead to missed commands, which is critical for high-precision tasks [7]. - The company is testing a system called Agentforce Script to identify tasks that can be completed without relying on large language models, aiming to reduce unpredictability [9]. Group 4: Leadership and Future Directions - CEO Marc Benioff has indicated a shift in focus towards data infrastructure rather than AI models, highlighting the risks associated with unreliable AI outputs [13]. - There are discussions about potentially rebranding the company to "Agentforce," reflecting a strategic pivot in response to market interests [13]. - Salesforce's spokesperson emphasized the need for integrating AI with reliable data and business logic to achieve predictable outcomes, while also denying claims of reducing large language model applications [14].

Core Viewpoint - AI software stocks are expected to emerge as significant market players in 2026, following the dominance of semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks in recent years [1] Group 1: SoundHound AI - SoundHound AI is transitioning from an AI voice company to a voice-led agentic AI company, leveraging its voice technology for a competitive advantage [2] - The company experienced rapid growth, with revenue more than doubling in the first nine months of 2025, and has established a strong presence in the automobile and restaurant industries [4] - SoundHound AI's acquisition of Amelia has enhanced its capabilities in creating an agentic AI platform and expanded its customer relationships in healthcare, financial services, and retail [4] - The company is improving its gross margins, with expectations of generating positive EBITDA soon, and is well-positioned for future growth [6] Group 2: Salesforce - Salesforce is viewed as a potential AI loser but is actually well-positioned due to its role as a system of record for customer service, marketing, and sales [8] - The acquisition of Informatica strengthens Salesforce's data management capabilities, enhancing its position as a reliable data source [8] - Salesforce's Agentforce solution is integrated throughout its product suite, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) for Agentforce surging 330% to $540 million last quarter [9] - The stock is considered undervalued, trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio below 5.5, a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 20, and a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio below 0.65 [10] Group 3: Snowflake - Snowflake operates a cloud-based data warehousing and analytics platform that separates storage from compute, allowing customers to access data across different cloud providers [11] - The platform's architecture creates a "sticky" environment for customers, making it difficult to move data once integrated [11] - Snowflake is also adopting AI agents through its Snowflake Intelligence solution, which had over 1,200 customers and a $100 million AI revenue run rate at the end of the last quarter [12] - The company reported a 29% revenue increase last quarter, with a net revenue retention rate of 125% over the past 12 months, indicating strong growth potential [13][14]