Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **transportation industry**, specifically the impact of tariffs on freight flows from **China to the USA** [1][2][3]. Core Observations - **Laden vessels from China to the USA** decreased by **8% week-over-week**, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline after a surge in inbound shipments [1][5]. - Year-over-year (YoY), laden vessels showed a **3% drop** [5]. - **Port of Los Angeles** is expected to see a **22% increase** in sequential imports, followed by a **17% decrease** two weeks later, indicating volatility in shipping patterns [5][40]. - **Rail intermodal volumes** on the West Coast increased by **5% YoY**, suggesting a recovery in logistics following previous declines [5]. - **Container rates** remained flat sequentially but are under significant pressure, down **70% YoY** [5][37]. Trade Scenarios for 2025 - Two potential scenarios for trade in 2025: 1. A surge in orders ahead of a **90-day tariff pause** in China. 2. A slowdown in activity due to uncertainty regarding tariffs and inventory management [6][7]. - The likelihood of a pull-forward surge is seen as more probable, complicating volume and earnings predictions for transportation companies [7]. Tariff Impact - The **30% tariffs** remain high, potentially affecting demand over time, especially as e-commerce faces the end of de minimis exemptions [8]. - Three possible outcomes for transport stocks: 1. A significant pull-forward leading to inventory build-up followed by a drop in freight demand in the second half of 2025. 2. A less pronounced pull-forward, leading to uncertainty for shippers. 3. Economic stability leading to increased orders as retailers face inventory shortages [11]. Freight Forwarders and Logistics - Freight forwarders like **EXPD** and **CHRW** are expected to benefit from volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff pauses [12]. - **Parcel services** (e.g., **UPS** and **FDX**) may also benefit from increased demand for air freight during this period [14]. Container and TEU Trends - **TEUs** from China to the USA increased by **10% YoY** in the latest week, following a previous decline [21]. - The overall trend in TEUs remains volatile, reflecting the dynamic nature of trade flows [23][27]. Port Activity - **Chinese major port throughput** increased by **3% week-over-week** and **5% YoY**, indicating a slight recovery in port activity [34][35]. - The **Big Three ports** (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) saw a **5% YoY decline** but a **21% sequential increase** from May to June, indicating a recovery trend [57][59]. Inventory and Cost Trends - The **Logistics Managers Index** showed upstream inventory expansion at **66.4** in June, while downstream inventories compressed at **44.2** [72]. - The **inventory cost index** rose to **80.9**, reflecting higher costs associated with inventory management [73]. Conclusion - The transportation industry is currently experiencing significant volatility due to tariff impacts, shifting shipping patterns, and fluctuating demand. Companies in this sector must navigate these challenges while looking for opportunities in freight forwarding and logistics as trade dynamics evolve.

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 20, with earnings expected to be flat at 47 cents per share and revenues projected to rise by 21% year over year to $1.67 billion [1] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - High operating expenses are anticipated to negatively impact the company's bottom-line performance, although top-line growth is expected to be driven by strong parcel volumes [2] - ZTO Express has updated its 2025 parcel volume guidance to a range of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20-24% [3] - The ongoing trade war between the United States and China is expected to influence the results for the upcoming quarter [3][4] Group 2: Previous Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2024, ZTO Express reported mixed results, with earnings of 44 cents per share falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents, while total revenues of $1.77 billion exceeded the estimate of $1.65 billion [7]