Canadian National Railway Company (NYSE:CNI) is included among the 15 Best Passive Income Stocks to Buy Right Now. Bernstein Raises CNI Price Target to $109.44, Maintains Market Perform Rating Photo by Dan Dennis on Unsplash On November​ 11, Bernstein raised its⁠ price targ⁠e‍t on Canadian National Railway Company (NYSE:CNI) to $109.44 fr‌om $‍106.‌47 while main‍ta‌ining a Market P‌er‌for‌m rating, as reported by The Fly. The firm not‌ed that the com⁠pany faced‌ top-line pressure in Q3,‍ but ope⁠rating ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenues of CAD 3.7 billion, an increase of 3% year-over-year [5] - Operating ratio improved by 220 basis points to 60.7% [5][26] - Earnings per share increased by 11% to CAD 1.10 compared to the previous year [5][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive franchise achieved a record quarter with revenue up 2% and volume up 9% [23] - Bulk revenues increased by 4% driven by a 6% volume growth in grain, with U.S. grain volumes up 13% [18][19] - Intermodal revenue rose by 7% with an 11% increase in volume, supported by domestic intermodal growth [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian grain volumes decreased by 2% due to lower carryout stocks and demand for canola exports [19] - Potash revenues and volumes increased by 15% driven by strong demand fundamentals [19] - Energy, chemicals, and plastics revenue and volume declined by 2% due to softer demand and customs challenges [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on executing growth opportunities despite potential industry consolidation [8][10] - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining an industry-leading position and delivering strong results [10] - The company is exploring alliances with non-applicants to leverage regulatory requirements for merger-like benefits [42] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macroeconomic challenges but expressed confidence in achieving 10%-14% earnings growth [8] - The company is well-positioned to handle strong grain harvests in Canada and the U.S. [16][30] - Management expects to maintain strong labor productivity and margin improvement in the fourth quarter [28] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased 34 million shares, representing approximately 91% of the announced program [30] - The company is on track to invest approximately CAD 2.9 billion in capital expenditures for 2025 [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: M&A implications of UP and NS merger - Management highlighted that the approval of the UP and NS merger is not guaranteed and will depend on regulatory scrutiny [34][35] Question: Strategy in light of potential merger impacts - Management confirmed they are actively engaging with other railroads to create alliances and leverage opportunities [42] Question: Volume trends and achieving guidance - Management expressed confidence in achieving mid-single-digit RTMs and double-digit EPS growth despite challenges [57][68]

Core Insights - Old Dominion Freight Line announced a 4.9% general rate increase effective November 3, aligning with last year's increase but implemented one month earlier [1] - The general rate increase (GRI) is a common practice among carriers to adjust base rates across various lanes and weight categories, aimed at counteracting cost inflation and funding capital expenditure projects [2] Company-Specific Insights - Todd Polen, head of pricing services at Old Dominion, emphasized the need to enhance service quality and systems to meet customer expectations, stating that the GRI will help offset rising costs related to real estate, equipment, technology, and employee compensation [3] - Other carriers, such as ABF Freight and Saia, have also announced similar rate increases ahead of schedule, indicating a trend within the industry [4] Industry Context - The less-than-truckload (LTL) sector is experiencing prolonged downturns, with weak demand in the industrial sector affecting revenue for many carriers [6][7] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing activity was reported at 49.1 in September, indicating continued contraction in the sector [7] - Analysts express concerns that favorable pricing dynamics in the industry may be challenged by new capacity entering the market, particularly following the redistribution of Yellow Corp.'s terminal portfolio [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the North American freight rail industry Core Insights - Revenue growth in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by Canadian and Mexican railroads, with US railroads lagging behind due to declining coal traffic and insufficient growth in other areas [6][9] - The average freight revenue per unit increased for Canadian and Mexican railroads, while US carriers experienced significant revenue yield declines [15][16] - Intermodal traffic saw growth across most railroads, particularly for Union Pacific, while carload volumes generally decreased [12][18] - Operating ratios for most US carriers remained in the mid-60s, with Union Pacific being the only carrier around 60% [32][36] - Employment across the industry generally declined, with significant reductions noted in Eastern carriers [45][46] Revenue Analysis - Total revenue for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 showed varied performance among the major railroads, with Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) achieving peak revenue quarters [7][9] - The total revenue units for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 indicated a mixed performance, with some railroads experiencing growth while others saw declines [13][18] Operating Performance - The adjusted operating ratio for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 showed a range of performance, with CPKC and CN maintaining lower ratios compared to their peers [33][36] - Operating income for CPKC and Norfolk Southern (NS) reached their highest levels in four years, largely influenced by specific operational recoveries [56][59] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures varied significantly, with CPKC, CSX, and Union Pacific increasing their investments, while others reduced spending [62][63] Cash Flow and Financial Metrics - Year-to-date free cash flow showed mixed results, with BNSF, NS, and CPKC reporting double-digit increases [65][66] - Return on invested capital (ROIC) improvements were noted only for NS and Union Pacific over the past 12 months [69][70] Stock Performance - Railroad stock performance has lagged behind the S&P 500, with a declining trend observed since Q2 2024 [72][73] Operational Efficiency - Employee productivity generally increased across the industry, with only CSX and Ferromex (FXE) experiencing slight declines [53][54] - Significant reductions in injuries and incidents were reported across most carriers, indicating improvements in safety metrics [79][80]