Key Takeaways SJM raised coffee prices to counter green coffee inflation and tariff-driven import cost increases. U.S. Retail Coffee sales rose 11% in Q4 FY25 on stronger net pricing, though volume/mix stayed flat. FY26 outlook expects 20% pricing but a 10% volume drop as consumers react to higher coffee prices.The J.M. Smucker Company’s ((SJM) coffee prices are influenced by several factors like raw ingredient costs, tariffs, evolving consumer patterns and broader market volatility. The company has been ...

Core Viewpoint - The J.M. Smucker Company reported mixed fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with adjusted earnings exceeding estimates but net sales declining year over year, raising questions about future performance and investor sentiment [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.31, down 13% year over year, but above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.25 [3]. - Net sales totaled $2,143.8 million, a 3% decline year over year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,191 million [4]. - Gross profit decreased by 10% due to elevated costs and unfavorable volume/mix, with adjusted gross profit falling 9% [5]. Segment Performance - U.S. Retail Pet Foods: Sales fell 13% to $395.5 million, with a significant adverse impact from volume/mix [6]. - U.S. Retail Coffee: Sales increased 11% to $738.6 million, supported by higher net price realization [7]. - Sweet Baked Snacks: Sales dropped 26% to $251 million, with a 72% decline in segment profit [9]. - International and Away From Home: Net sales rose 3% to $308.9 million, with a 13% increase in segment profit [10]. Financial Health - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $69.9 million and long-term debt of $7,036.8 million [11]. - Cash flow from operating activities was $393.9 million, with free cash flow at $298.9 million [12]. Future Outlook - Fiscal 2026 net sales are expected to increase by 2% to 4%, with comparable net sales anticipated to rise by 3.5% to 5.5% [13]. - Adjusted EPS for fiscal 2026 is projected to be between $8.50 and $9.50, down from $10.12 in fiscal 2025 [13]. - The consensus estimate has shifted downward by 11.4% since the earnings release, indicating a negative trend in investor sentiment [14]. Industry Context - Smucker operates within the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry, where competitor United Natural Foods reported a revenue increase of 7.5% year over year [17]. - United Natural has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of A, contrasting with Smucker's Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [18].

Core Insights - The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with net sales missing estimates while adjusted earnings exceeded expectations, both metrics showing a year-over-year decline [1][3][10] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $2.31, down 13% year over year, but above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.25 [3][10] - Net sales totaled $2,143.8 million, a 3% decline year over year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,191 million [3][10] - Excluding noncomparable sales from divestitures and currency impacts, net sales decreased by 1%, attributed to a 3% drop in volume/mix, partially offset by a 3% increase in net price realization [3][10] Segment Performance - U.S. Retail Pet Foods: Sales fell 13% to $395.5 million, with an 11-percentage-point negative impact from volume/mix [5] - U.S. Retail Coffee: Sales increased 11% to $738.6 million, driven by a 10% rise in net price realization [6] - U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads: Sales decreased slightly to $449.8 million, with a profit drop of 5% to $91 million [7] - Sweet Baked Snacks: Sales were $251 million, down 26% year over year, with a profit decline of 72% to $20 million [8] - International and Away From Home: Sales increased 3% to $308.9 million, with a profit increase of 13% to $69.2 million [9] Financial Health - Cash and cash equivalents stood at $69.9 million, with long-term debt of $7,036.8 million and total shareholders' equity of $6,082.6 million [11] - Operating cash flow was $393.9 million, and free cash flow was $298.9 million for the quarter [11] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, SJM anticipates net sales growth of 2-4%, factoring in the impact of recent divestitures [13] - Comparable net sales are expected to rise approximately 3.5-5.5%, driven by higher net price realization, despite volume/mix declines [14] - Adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 is set between $8.50 and $9.50, down from $10.12 in fiscal 2025 [15]

Core Insights - Smucker (SJM) reported revenue of $2.14 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, reflecting a decrease of 2.8% year-over-year and a surprise of -2.18% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.19 billion [1] - The company's EPS was $2.31, down from $2.66 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of +2.67% against the consensus estimate of $2.25 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads net sales were $449.80 million, slightly below the estimated $462.28 million, marking a year-over-year decline of -0.2% [4] - U.S. Retail Coffee net sales reached $738.60 million, exceeding the average estimate of $715.26 million, with a year-over-year increase of +10.9% [4] - U.S. Retail Pet Foods net sales were $395.50 million, below the estimated $433.66 million, representing a year-over-year decline of -12.6% [4] - International and Away From Home net sales were $308.90 million, slightly below the estimate of $310.83 million, with a year-over-year increase of +3.1% [4] - Sweet Baked Snacks net sales were $251 million, below the estimated $270.36 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of -25.5% [4] Segment Profit Analysis - Segment profit for Sweet Baked Snacks was $20 million, significantly lower than the average estimate of $53.95 million [4] - Segment profit for U.S. Retail Coffee was $211.20 million, exceeding the average estimate of $182.87 million [4] - Corporate administrative expenses were reported at -$75.10 million, better than the average estimate of -$93.98 million [4] - Segment profit for U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads was $91 million, slightly below the average estimate of $93.28 million [4] - Segment profit for International and Away From Home was $69.20 million, surpassing the average estimate of $62.50 million [4] - Segment profit for U.S. Retail Pet Foods was $106.10 million, below the average estimate of $115.33 million [4] Stock Performance - Smucker's shares have returned -0.6% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by +6.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Smucker (SJM) to report quarterly earnings of $2.25 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 15.4%, with revenues projected at $2.19 billion, down 0.8% from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - There has been a slight upward revision of 0.1% in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [1][2] Revenue Projections - Analysts forecast 'Net Sales- U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads' at $462.28 million, a year-over-year increase of 2.6% [4] - 'Net Sales- U.S. Retail Coffee' is expected to reach $707.77 million, reflecting a 6.3% increase from the previous year [4] - 'Net Sales- U.S. Retail Pet Foods' is projected at $435.92 million, indicating a decline of 3.7% year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales- International and Away From Home' is estimated at $310.83 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 3.8% [5] - 'Net Sales- Sweet Baked Snacks' is expected to be $269.23 million, reflecting a significant decline of 20.1% from the previous year [5] Segment Profit Estimates - 'Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Coffee' is projected to be $177.89 million, down from $210.30 million year-over-year [6] - 'Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads' is estimated at $94.43 million, slightly down from $95.80 million year-over-year [6] - 'Segment Profit- International and Away From Home' is expected to reach $62.76 million, up from $61.10 million year-over-year [6] - 'Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Pet Foods' is projected at $117.21 million, compared to $114.10 million in the same quarter last year [7] Stock Performance - Smucker shares have shown a return of -0.2% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 5.2% [7]