汽车行业政策专家交流以旧换新 20251228 摘要 2025 年消费品以旧换新总额预计 3,000 亿，2026 年降至 2,500 亿， 涵盖汽车、家电、家装和数码产品。汽车以旧换新补贴建议按金额的 8%~12%补贴，或最有可能 10%，最高封顶 2 万元，且要求车辆持有 一年以上。 报废更新补贴方面，新能源车补贴比例建议为 8%~12%，燃油车 5%~10%。置换补贴从去年的 1.3 万-1.5 万调整为 1 万-1.2 万，并要 求地方政府均衡使用资金。目前没有单独针对燃油车的明确政策，但会 根据上半年情况储备相关政策。 旧车报废政策仍按 2024 年标准执行，置换政策要求车辆持有一年以上。 新车购买和上牌区域必须一致，以避免追逐补贴的情况。预计新能源车 的补贴比例会更高，10 万元以下低价位车型占比将显著增加。 2026 年燃油车报废补贴比例可能从 8%降至 5%，上限仍为 15,000 元。 新能源车的报废补贴比例预计为 10%。中央政府仍准备资金支持地方， 但力度不如去年，地方政府承担的比例将略高于今年。 Q&A 以旧换新政策预计何时出台？目前政策的动态如何？ 最快可能在上周五发布，但目前来看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest research from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) indicates that electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe have a lifecycle greenhouse gas emission that is 73% lower than that of traditional gasoline vehicles, including emissions from battery production [2] Group 1: Lifecycle Emissions - Electric vehicles have a higher carbon footprint during the initial manufacturing phase due to battery production, approximately 40% higher than gasoline vehicles, but this difference is offset after driving about 17,000 kilometers [2] - From 2025 to 2044, the average carbon emissions for medium-sized electric vehicles in the EU are projected to be around 63 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilometer, compared to approximately 235 grams for gasoline vehicles, which includes tailpipe emissions and indirect emissions from fuel production and vehicle manufacturing [2] Group 2: Market Growth in China - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China reached 31.6% in 2023, a significant increase from 2022, and is expected to rise to 40.3% in the first 11 months of 2024 [5] - In the first half of 2023, China's automotive industry saw a year-on-year growth of over 10% in multiple economic indicators, with NEV production and sales reaching 696.8 million and 693.7 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 41.4% and 40.3% [8] Group 3: Future Projections - It is anticipated that by 2025, the penetration rate of NEVs will reach 50%, with sales projected at approximately 16.5 million units; by 2030, the penetration rate is expected to be between 70% and 75% [9] - By 2035, the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles is expected to reach 85% to 90%, establishing a market structure of 333 for gasoline, hybrid, and pure electric vehicles [9]