GB200/300 NVL72 racks

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全球信息与通信技术硬件及半导体 -2025 年第三季度考察:火力全开-Global I_O Tech Hardware & Semis _3Q25 UBS APAC Tech Tour Firing on all cylinders
UBS· 2025-09-25 05:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (O/W) rating for Taiwan, Neutral/Weight (N/W) for Korea, and moves Japan to Neutral/Weight from Underweight (U/W), while China is rated Underweight (U/W) from Neutral/Weight [4]. Core Insights - The smartphone industry unit Sell In forecasts have been raised to +3% YoY for 2025 and +1% YoY for 2026, with PC forecasts increased to +4% YoY for 2025 and +3% YoY for 2026, and server forecasts to +6% YoY for 2025 and +4% YoY for 2026 [1][9]. - AI demand remains robust, with expectations for Nvidia's GB200/300 NVL72 racks in 2025 at 28-29k and initial conservative estimates for 2026 at around 50-60k [1]. - The foundry outlook for 3nm and 2nm is strong, driven by AI accelerator projects, while DDR and NAND supply is tightening, with DDR potentially "sold out" until 2027 [2]. - Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) spending is trending upwards, with forecasts for 2025 at US$109 billion (+12% YoY) and 2026 at US$118 billion (+8% YoY) [3]. Summary by Sections Smartphones - The smartphone market is expected to see unit Sell In of 1.26 billion in 2025 (+3% YoY) and 1.27 billion in 2026 (+1% YoY), with Apple’s iPhone 17 builds projected to increase [9][11]. - Component upgrades in the iPhone 17 series include significant camera enhancements, indicating ongoing technological advancements despite cost pressures [12]. PCs - Global PC unit shipments are forecasted to grow by +4.4% YoY in 2025 and +3.4% YoY in 2026, with commercial segments showing resilient momentum due to the Windows 10 EOL replacement cycle [16][19]. - The report highlights a modestly positive outlook for PC shipments, with consumer PCs expected to grow 0.5% YoY in 2025, while commercial PCs are forecasted to grow by +6.6% YoY [19]. Memory and Foundry - The report indicates a tightening supply for DDR and NAND, with long-term agreements being established by major customers, particularly US hyperscalers [2]. - The outlook for 3nm and 2nm foundries is robust, with expectations for multi-year growth driven by AI projects [2]. Wafer Fab Equipment - WFE spending is expected to increase, particularly from Korean memory makers, with forecasts for domestic China WFE at US$37 billion in 2025 (+3% YoY) [3].