Summary of Conference Call Records Company: Inspur (000977.SZ) Key Points 1. **Upgrade to Buy**: Inspur has been upgraded from Neutral to Buy due to improving GPU supply in the China market, new GPU platforms expected in 2H25, and the growth of local chipset platforms to meet generative AI demand in China. The 12-month price target (TP) has been raised to Rmb77.8 from Rmb55, indicating a potential upside of 39.5% [1][9][10]. 2. **Revenue and Earnings Growth**: Revenue projections for Inspur have been revised upwards by 8% for 2025, 25% for 2026, and 27% for 2027, primarily driven by higher AI training server revenues. The company expects a significant ramp-up in shipments of AI training servers due to better GPU supply and new product cycles [14][18]. 3. **Market Position**: Inspur is positioned as a leading AI server ODM in China, supplying major Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) and expanding its offerings from global-tier GPU-powered servers to local chipset-powered servers. This transition is expected to enhance its market share and profitability [10][13][14]. 4. **Earnings Revision**: Earnings have been revised upwards by 7% for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 9% for 2027, despite a lower gross margin (GM) and higher operating expenses (Opex) ratio. The expected GM is projected to decline slightly due to the higher contribution from AI training servers, which typically have lower margins [14][18]. 5. **Sensitivity Analysis**: A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 10% increase in AI training server shipments could lead to a 6% increase in total revenues and a 2% increase in gross profit. Conversely, a decrease in shipments would have the opposite effect [17]. 6. **Investment Thesis**: The investment thesis for Inspur is based on the anticipated increase in capital expenditure (Capex) from Chinese CSPs, telecom operators, and government clients focused on AI training and inferencing. The emergence of advanced AI applications is also expected to drive growth [29][32]. 7. **Risks**: Key risks include slower-than-expected ramp-up of AI servers in China, potential GPU supply constraints, and intensified pricing competition among ODM suppliers, which could negatively impact earnings [27][28][32]. Company: Piotech (688072.SS) Key Points 1. **Downgrade to Neutral**: Piotech has been downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to pressures on near-term profitability stemming from new product ramp-up. The revised TP is set at Rmb185, reflecting a 17% upside potential [2][33]. 2. **Profitability Concerns**: The company's gross margin fell to 20% in Q1 2025 from 47% in Q1 2024, attributed to higher delivery and service costs associated with new products. The expectation is that it will take time for margins to recover to the historical average of around 40% for deposition tools [35][37]. 3. **Earnings Revision**: Earnings estimates have been reduced by 3% to 5% for 2025-2027, primarily due to lower margins and adjustments in government subsidies. The target P/E multiple has been reset from 42.5x to 37.7x to reflect these changes [34][38]. 4. **Market Position**: Piotech is recognized as a local leader in deposition tools, expanding into high-end products. However, the company faces challenges due to its exposure to competitive mature nodes and the costs associated with new product delivery [34][39]. 5. **Government Subsidies**: Expected government subsidies have been lowered, reflecting the company's shift towards self-funding for new production facilities. Despite this, there is an ongoing effort to deepen cooperation with government entities [37][39]. Conclusion Inspur is positioned for significant growth in the AI server market, supported by favorable supply conditions and increasing demand. Conversely, Piotech faces challenges that have led to a downgrade, highlighting the importance of managing new product costs and maintaining profitability in a competitive landscape.

Key Takeaways DELL's gross margin fell 80 bps to 21.6% in Q1 FY26 due to pricing pressure and unfavorable server mix. ISG revenue rose 12% to $10.3B, driven by a record $6.3B in server and networking sales and AI demand. DELL plans to ship $7B in AI servers in Q2, expecting 10% quarter-over-quarter gross margin dollar growth.Dell Technologies (DELL) is suffering from a decline in gross margin, which contracted 80 basis points (bps) year over year to 21.6% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The dip was p ...

通信 周跟踪（20250707-20250713） 领先大市-A(维持) 2025 年 7 月 17 日 行业研究/行业周报 通信行业近一年市场表现 行业动向： 1）Grok4 发布，xAI 宣称达到最新的 SOTA（最先进的模型） 资料来源：最闻 7 月 10 日，马斯克宣布推出 xAI 下一代大模型 Grok4，其推理能力相较于前 代提升了 10 倍，主要得益于 Grok4 推理的强化学习再度提升了 10 倍的计算量， 这意味着后训练和推理领域的 scalinglaw 仍在发挥作用。Grok4 在 HLE（人类最 后的考试）中成绩刷新新高，马斯克认为，Grok4 目前在所有学科都达到了博士 后的水平。应用方面，Grok4 的语音能力相较于上代速度快了 2 倍，在真实物理 世界执行复杂操作任务的能力大幅领先，被认为在编程、机器人训练、科学模拟、 前沿课题研究等领域可以实现更佳的效果。 相关报告： 【山证通信】山西证券通信行业周 2）Kimi 发布最新一代 MoE 模型 K2 并宣布开源，在自主编程、工具调用、 数学推理能力上表现大幅进步 跟踪：Coreweave 开启首批部署 GB300， 星网发展有望加速 ...

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is now shipping advanced 4-socket servers optimized for large-scale database and enterprise applications, utilizing the latest Intel Xeon 6 Processors with Performance-Cores [1][2] - These new servers are designed to support high-performance computing (HPC), mission-critical workloads, and in-memory databases, offering significantly higher performance compared to previous generations [1][6] - The servers can accommodate up to 16TB of memory and support up to 6 double-width GPUs, making them suitable for demanding enterprise needs [2][6] Product Features - The 4-socket servers are certified for SAP HANA and Oracle Linux, allowing for superior performance by scaling workloads within a single node [3] - The systems can host two double-width GPUs in a 2U configuration and up to 6 double-width GPUs in a 4U configuration, enhancing capabilities for AI training and enterprise database applications [3][4] - Performance increases of up to 50% compared to the previous generation of Intel processors are reported, with a total of up to 344 cores per system [6] Market Position - Supermicro is positioned as a global leader in Application-Optimized Total IT Solutions, committed to delivering first-to-market innovations across various sectors including Enterprise, Cloud, AI, and 5G [5] - The company emphasizes its ability to provide complete data center solutions worldwide, leveraging its DCBBS approach and production capabilities [2][5] - Supermicro's products are designed and manufactured in-house across multiple locations, optimizing for total cost of ownership (TCO) and reducing environmental impact [5]

Core Insights - Wall Street continues its upward trend, primarily driven by the technology sector's adoption of generative AI, despite some challenges in early 2025 [2] - Three technology companies have seen significant earnings estimate revisions, indicating positive market expectations [3] Company Summaries Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) - DELL has experienced strong demand for AI servers, securing $12.1 billion in AI server orders, which has created a robust backlog [5][9] - The company is expanding its cloud services and AI infrastructure through its APEX platform, which offers multi-cloud solutions [7] - DELL's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 8.7% and 16%, respectively, with a recent 0.1% improvement in earnings estimates [8] Jabil Inc. (JBL) - JBL benefits from momentum in capital equipment and AI-powered data center infrastructure, with an 8.4% increase in next-year EPS estimates [9][12] - The company maintains high free cash flow, indicating efficient financial management and operational efficiency [11] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for JBL are 5.8% and 17.8%, respectively, for the next fiscal year [12] Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) - CRDO specializes in high-performance serial connectivity solutions, with its Active Electrical Cables (AEC) gaining traction in the data center market [14] - The company has seen a 37% increase in earnings estimates over the last 60 days, with expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 85.8% and over 100% for the current year [19] - CRDO's product lines, including PCIe retimers and Ethernet retimers, are experiencing robust demand, particularly in AI server applications [17][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Foxconn Industrial Internet is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb26.00, indicating an expected return of 11.1% [3][20]. Core Insights - Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII) reported a net profit guidance for 2Q25 of Rmb6.73-6.93 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 48%-52%, which exceeds CitiE and BBGe estimates by 12% and 26% respectively [1][2]. - Cloud computing revenue for FII increased by over 50% in 2Q25, with AI server revenue growing by over 60% year-over-year, although this was below the initial guidance of 100%+ [1][2]. - The revenue from CSP servers rose by more than 150% year-over-year in 2Q25, and significant growth was observed in GPU module and compute tray shipments [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FII's net profit guidance for 2Q25 is as follows: - High-end: Rmb6.93 billion, a 52% increase year-over-year - Medium: Rmb6.83 billion, a 50% increase year-over-year - Low-end: Rmb6.73 billion, a 48% increase year-over-year [4]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb26.00 is based on a valuation of 17.0x 2025E earnings, which is justified by an earnings upcycle expected in 2025-2026 [6]. - The valuation multiple aligns with a blended P/E approach, applying 15x P/E to the non-AI segment and 20x P/E to the AI segment [6]. Market Context - The market capitalization of FII is approximately Rmb476.23 billion (US$66.46 billion) [3]. - The expected dividend yield is 2.7%, contributing to the overall expected return of 11.1% [3].

Core Insights - Cisco Systems and Dell Technologies are leading providers of AI-powered enterprise infrastructure solutions [2][3] - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving significant growth in both companies, with Cisco securing over $1 billion in AI infrastructure orders and Dell shipping $1.8 billion in AI servers in Q1 [9][13] - IDC projects AI infrastructure spending to exceed $200 billion by 2028, with a significant portion allocated to servers with embedded accelerators [4] Company Performance - Cisco's stock has appreciated 16.2% year to date, while Dell's shares have increased by 11% [5] - Cisco's security business is thriving, with strong demand for its security solutions and a growing customer base [11][12] - Dell's PowerEdge XE9680L AI-optimized server is in high demand, contributing to a healthy backlog of $14.4 billion [13] Market Trends - Global IT spending is forecasted to reach $5.61 trillion by 2025, with data center systems expected to grow by 23.2% [4] - Enterprises with large-scale hyperscale data centers will account for over 70% of spending on AI-optimized servers by 2025 [4] Valuation and Investment Appeal - Dell Technologies is considered undervalued with a Price/Sales ratio of 0.81X compared to Cisco's 4.61X [18] - Dell holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), while Cisco has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a stronger investment appeal for Dell [21][22]

Core Insights - The server market is projected to experience significant growth driven by artificial intelligence, with revenues expected to grow at a 25% annual rate from 2024 to 2030, while unit shipments will increase at a 7% annual pace [1][10]. Company Insights - Dell Technologies is identified as a major beneficiary of the rising AI server demand, with an AI server backlog of $14.4 billion as of the first quarter of fiscal 2026, and projected AI server revenue growth from $9.8 billion in 2024 to over $44 billion by 2027 [5][6]. - Hewlett Packard Enterprise is also expected to benefit significantly, with AI server revenue projected to grow from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $20 billion by 2027, and an APU backlog of $3.2 billion at the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2025 [7]. Market Dynamics - AI server revenues are anticipated to grow at a 28% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2030, outpacing the overall server market growth of 25% CAGR, while non-AI server revenues will grow at about 4% annually [3]. - AI server unit shipments are expected to increase at a 15% CAGR, compared to total server units growing at a 7.2% annual rate during the same period [4]. Product Segmentation - Early AI-related demand is expected to focus on mid-range and high-end training servers, with inference server demand rising in later years, primarily in the mid-range segment [11]. - Volume servers priced below $10,000 are projected to grow at a 5% CAGR, while mid-range server units will grow at a 19% CAGR, and high-end server units will grow at a 39% CAGR, driven by the need to train AI models [12]. Competitive Landscape - The server industry is expected to face pressure on profit margins due to intensifying competition, with operating margins likely to remain in the low-to-mid single digits in the near term [9]. - Newer GPUs, such as Nvidia's Blackwell, require significant power, leading to the integration of liquid cooling systems, which currently command premium pricing but are expected to see price reductions over time [8].

Group 1 - BofA Securities has resumed coverage on Super Micro Computer (SMCI) with an 'Underperform' rating and a price target of $35, indicating a potential downside of approximately 28.5% from current levels [1] - SMCI stock closed at $49.11 on July 8, reflecting a 4.25% gain from the previous session, but experienced a 1.34% decline in premarket trading [2] - Despite BofA's bearish outlook, the broader Wall Street sentiment is more optimistic, with a "Moderate Buy" consensus based on 13 analysts' price targets, including 6 Buy ratings, 6 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell rating [3] Group 2 - The average 12-month price target for SMCI is $41.42, suggesting a potential downside of 15%, with forecasts varying from a high of $70.00 to a low of $24.00 [5] - Super Micro is projected to achieve strong revenue growth, with sales expected to increase nearly 48% to $22 billion in FY'25 and continue growing by 35% to approximately $30 billion in FY'26 due to robust data center spending [6] - The company's close ties to Nvidia's GPU ecosystem position it favorably to benefit from the upcoming Blackwell GPU ramp, although margin pressures from costly liquid-cooling systems and heightened competition may impact profitability in the near term [7]

Group 1 - Dell is primarily known for its laptops, but its servers are also a significant product line, especially with the rising demand for AI servers and AI PCs [1][3] - Over the past 30 years, Dell's revenue has shown a continuous upward trend, nearing $100 billion, as the company has successfully navigated multiple technological waves [1][3] - The article discusses Dell's ability to sustain growth in a competitive PC market and its recent entry into the AI sector [3][4] Group 2 - Dell's evolution can be divided into four key phases: direct sales model, internet empowerment, crisis period, and transformation into a full-stack IT service provider [4][10] - The initial phase (1984-1990) focused on a direct sales model that reduced operational costs by 15%-20% and improved response times to 72 hours [5] - The expansion phase (1991-2004) saw Dell leverage the internet, increasing daily online sales from $1 million to $50 million by 2000 [6][7] Group 3 - The crisis period (2005-2013) was marked by a loss of market share and a significant drop in profits, leading to the company's privatization in 2013 [8] - Since 2013, under the leadership of founder Michael Dell, the company has transformed into a comprehensive IT service provider, acquiring EMC for $67 billion in 2016 [10] - Dell's core business is now divided into Client Solutions Group (CSG) and Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), with a near 1:1 revenue split between the two [10][11] Group 4 - Dell's server business is currently a focal point, with expectations that AI servers will account for about 20% of ISG revenue [13][16] - The server industry chain includes upstream components like GPUs and CPUs, with Dell positioned in the midstream as a manufacturer and integrator [16][18] - Dell holds the top position among brand manufacturers in the server market, but only commands a 7.2% market share [20] Group 5 - The server market is projected to grow from $306.7 billion in 2024 to $608 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.5%, driven by AI server demand [31] - AI servers are expected to see a 15.6% CAGR, with their market share increasing from 14% to 25% by 2029 [35] - Dell's AI server revenue is anticipated to reach nearly $10 billion in 2024, benefiting from its deep partnership with NVIDIA [39]