Core Viewpoint - Seth Klarman's investment strategy indicates a shift from Alphabet to Amazon, highlighting the perceived undervaluation of Amazon amidst market pessimism and strong growth potential in cloud computing and AI services [2][10][12]. Group 1: Alphabet (GOOG) - Klarman initially invested in Alphabet during the COVID-19 pandemic, drawn by its strong free cash flow and dominant market position [4]. - Despite trimming his stake, Klarman sold 41% of his remaining shares in Alphabet last quarter, capitalizing on a significant price increase as the stock's forward P/E ratio rose from around 20 to 30 [5][8]. - Alphabet's recent developments, including lenient antitrust remedies and growth in its core Search and cloud computing businesses, contributed to its stock price surge, making it a top-10 position in Baupost's portfolio [6][8]. Group 2: Amazon (AMZN) - Klarman invested nearly half a billion dollars in Amazon in the fourth quarter, making it the second-largest position in Baupost's portfolio at 9.3% [10]. - Amazon's stock only increased by 5% from the start of 2025, contrasting sharply with Alphabet's 65% rise, which may present a buying opportunity due to its attractive valuation [11][12]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS) showed a 24% year-over-year revenue growth, with expectations for strong earnings acceleration in 2027, despite significant capital expenditures planned for 2026 [14][15].

Core Insights - Alphabet's diversified revenue streams and advancements in AI monetization position it as a strong investment ahead of its upcoming earnings report on February 4, 2026 [1] - The company's shares have increased by over 68% in the past year, indicating strong market performance [1] Online Search Dominance - Google Search revenue grew nearly 15% year-over-year to approximately $56.6 billion in Q3 2025, alleviating concerns about AI chatbots affecting its market share [2][3] - AI features like AI Overviews and AI Mode are enhancing user engagement, particularly among younger demographics, with AI Mode achieving over 75 million daily active users [2][3] AI Monetization - Alphabet is rapidly monetizing its Gemini large language models, which are integrated into Google Workspace and Google Cloud, and has secured a multiyear deal with Apple for its Siri assistant [4] - This partnership is expected to generate new licensing revenue from Apple's extensive user base of over 2 billion devices [4] Google Cloud and YouTube Growth - Google Cloud reported a 34% year-over-year revenue increase to $15.2 billion in Q3 2025, with a backlog growth of 82% to $155 billion, indicating strong revenue visibility [5] - YouTube continues to dominate the U.S. streaming market and has expanded its content offerings through a partnership with the BBC, while also achieving significant viewership milestones [6] Financial Strength - Alphabet maintains a robust balance sheet with approximately $98.5 billion in cash at the end of Q3 2025, providing financial flexibility for future investments [7] Valuation Considerations - The company is trading at 30 times forward earnings estimates, which may seem high, but is justified by its strong performance across search, cloud, and video segments [10] - Despite potential risks, the outlook for strong earnings results suggests that investors may benefit from acquiring a small stake in the stock ahead of the earnings report [10]

Core Insights - Alphabet is positioned as a leading AI stock for the upcoming year and beyond, with widespread daily usage of its products [2] - The company's primary business remains Google search, which is expected to continue being its most significant revenue source [3] Market Position - Alphabet dominates the search engine market with over 70% market share in both the Chrome browser and Android operating system, making it the default search engine for most users [4] - A revenue-sharing agreement with Apple further extends Alphabet's reach, excluding China where it does not operate [4] AI Integration - Alphabet is enhancing its search capabilities with its Gemini large language models, introducing multimodal AI features like Lens and Circle, which are increasing user queries [5] - The company is rolling out AI Mode, allowing seamless switching between traditional search and AI chatbots, and its Gemini app is gaining popularity with tools like "Nano Banana" [5] Competitive Advantage - Alphabet possesses a unique data advantage, with decades of behavioral data, extensive YouTube video libraries, and a large-scale ad network that supports diverse advertising campaigns [6] - This competitive edge contributes to a wide moat that protects Alphabet's market position in both search and AI [6] Growth Potential - The company is experiencing strong growth in cloud computing and is making strategic investments in emerging technologies [7] - Current stock valuations are considered attractive, indicating potential for future investment [7]