The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) suggests a 0.9% decrease year over year to $1.05. The estimate has dropped by 1 cent in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third- quarter revenues currently stands at $1.01 billion, suggesting a 0.4% decline year over year. | | Q1 | Q2 | F1 | F2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current | 1.05 | 1.09 | 4.19 | 4.50 | | 7 Days Ago | 1.05 | 1.09 | 4.19 | 4.50 | | 30 Days Ago | 1.05 | 1.09 | 4.19 | 4.50 | | 60 Days Ago | 1 ...

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) is currently attractively priced with a Value Score of B, trading at a forward five-year price-to-sales (P/S) of 3.39X, which is lower than its median of 4.33X and the industry average of 4.14X [1][4] - The company has faced a tough macroeconomic environment, resulting in a 10.8% year-to-date decline in shares, underperforming the industry and S&P 500 [5] - Despite returning to top-line growth in Q3 of fiscal 2024, fiscal 2025 has shown mixed performance with a 0.9% revenue increase in Q1 and a 1.2% decline in Q2 [7][10] Valuation Comparison - Hologic's P/S ratio of 3.39X is favorable compared to peers QIAGEN (3.30X) and Abbott (2.50X), but it trades at a premium to the broader Medical sector's historical average of 2.33X [4] - The company has reaffirmed its revenue guidance but lowered its adjusted EPS forecast to $4.15-$4.25 from $4.25-$4.35, indicating potential challenges ahead [12] Performance Challenges - Hologic's performance has been impacted by a stronger U.S. dollar, a significant drop in Breast Health revenues, and the loss of a $50 million annual revenue stream from HIV testing in Africa [8][10] - Analysts have become increasingly cautious, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 EPS decreasing by 2.1% to $4.19 over the past 90 days [13] Growth Drivers - The Surgical business has shown a 7.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last decade, driven by products like MyoSure and the acquisition of Gynesonics [15] - Hologic's strong financial health is highlighted by $169.5 million in operating cash generated in Q2 of fiscal 2025 and a cash position of $1.43 billion [16] Overall Outlook - While Hologic's Surgical division shows ongoing momentum and financial stability, macroeconomic headwinds and declining sales in key areas have negatively impacted performance [17] - The negative earnings estimate trend suggests continued near-term challenges, leading to a less compelling investment case at this time [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was $1,005 million, a decrease of 0.5% in constant currency, but at the upper end of guidance [7][8] - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.30, flat compared to the previous year, reflecting solid gross margin expansion and benefits from share buybacks [8][30] - Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 61.1%, up 40 basis points year-over-year [31][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Diagnostics revenue was $453.6 million, growing 1.5% or 5.2% excluding COVID-related sales, driven by molecular diagnostics [16][18] - Breast Health revenue declined 6.9% to $356.2 million, with a 9.2% decline organically, attributed to lower gantry placements [19][40] - Surgical revenue increased 5.1% to $162.5 million, with international surgical business growing 16.2% [23][24] - Skeletal revenue grew 22.9% to $33 million, exceeding internal expectations due to improved production [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The diagnostics division's growth was impacted by reduced HIV testing in Africa due to funding cuts, affecting overall performance [18] - Sales expectations for China were lowered due to geopolitical challenges, with anticipated revenue now at approximately $50 million for the fiscal year [14][66] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to accelerate growth in Breast Health and has reorganized its sales team to improve focus on capital and disposable product sales [20][21] - Strategic acquisitions, such as Endomagnetics and Gynasonics, are expected to enhance market position and drive future growth [13][35] - The company is exploring various mitigation strategies for tariff impacts, primarily from Costa Rica and China [27][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate the challenging macroeconomic environment and anticipates improved growth rates in the fourth quarter [14][43] - The company expects to return to healthy growth in Breast Health by Q4 2025, driven by better commercial execution and new product introductions [40][43] Other Important Information - The company generated $169.5 million in operating cash flow in Q2 and ended the quarter with over $1.6 billion in cash and investments [12][35] - The effective tax rate for Q2 was 19%, reflecting adjustments to align with the expected full-year rate [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the potential higher costs from suppliers and mitigation efforts? - Management indicated that while there are discussions about potential price increases, they believe they can offset these costs through their existing operations in Costa Rica [46][47] Question: What is the current appetite for capital from hospitals? - Management noted that the breast health business has stabilized, and they expect hospitals to allocate budgets for meaningful product improvements [48][75] Question: How is the company addressing the decline in Africa and China? - The company is de-risking its revenue expectations from China and addressing funding cuts affecting testing in Africa [14][66] Question: What is the outlook for the Breast Health business? - Management is optimistic about returning to steady growth in Breast Health, with improvements expected in the fourth quarter [40][54] Question: Can you provide insights on the gantry replacement cycle? - The average life of gantries has extended to 10-12 years, and the company is actively managing an end-of-life strategy for older units [78] Question: How is the company managing supply chain challenges? - Management expressed confidence in their supply chain, particularly for US-manufactured products, while evaluating potential adjustments as needed [73][74]