Key Takeaways DGX has risen 25.7% YTD, outpacing its peer as the diagnostics market continues to expand.HOLX sees growth in Breast Health, GYN Surgical and Molecular Diagnostics across key global markets.DGX gains from advanced diagnostics demand, strategic acquisitions and its Invigorate cost-saving program.In the fast-growing diagnostics testing market, Hologic (HOLX) and Quest Diagnostics (DGX) stand out as two prominent players, each with its own niche. Hologic focuses on women’s health, providing a wid ...

Core Insights - Hologic's GYN Surgical segment achieved fourth-quarter revenues of $172.5 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.2%, driven by strong sales of MyoSure, Fluent, and contributions from the Gynesonics acquisition [1][8] Group 1: Product Performance - The MyoSure system, a minimally invasive treatment for uterine tissue removal, and the Fluent fluid management portfolio contributed significantly to revenue growth [2][8] - The Fluent Pro fluid management system, launched in late 2024, has gained strong traction, enhancing the MyoSure platform's performance and user experience [2] Group 2: International Expansion - Hologic's investments in commercial and market access capabilities have expanded the reach of its minimally invasive surgical products internationally, with MyoSure gaining more market share outside the U.S. [3] - NovaSure, used for treating abnormal uterine bleeding, has shown consistent double-digit growth internationally, particularly in Europe, supported by improved reimbursement strategies [3] Group 3: Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Gynesonics added the Sonata system, which generated $22.4 million in revenue for the year, enhancing Hologic's offerings for treating symptomatic uterine fibroids [4] Group 4: Market Performance - Hologic's stock has risen 8.6% over the past three months, outperforming the industry average growth of 0.6% [7][8] - The company is trading at a forward five-year price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.83X, which is lower than the industry average of 4.30X [9]

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on November 3, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated to increase by 8.9% year over year to $1.10 and revenues projected to rise by 4.7% to $1.03 billion [1][5]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter EPS has remained stable over the past 60 days, indicating no revisions [1][2]. - Hologic's earnings performance over the trailing four quarters has been mixed, with three beats and one miss, averaging a surprise of 0.96% [2][3]. Segment Analysis - The Diagnostics unit is expected to face macroeconomic pressures, limiting growth potential, while the Breast Health and GYN Surgical divisions are showing modest gains [5][20]. - The Molecular Diagnostics unit is anticipated to drive growth, particularly in the U.S. vaginitis market, and the oncology business may benefit from the Breast Cancer Index test [6][7]. - The Breast Health division is likely to return to growth, supported by new leadership and improved sales strategies, with a projected 0.1% year-over-year revenue increase [8]. - The GYN Surgical division is expected to deliver strong revenue performance, with an 11.9% year-over-year increase, driven by international markets and new product reimbursements [9]. - The Skeletal Health division is projected to see significant growth of 144.8% year-over-year, rebounding from previous operational challenges [10]. Market Position and Valuation - Year-to-date, Hologic shares have declined by 3.2%, underperforming compared to the industry average decline of 8.1% [11]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.64, above its median of 3.47 and the sector's 2.30 [15]. Strategic Considerations - Hologic is focusing on innovation and market access, with new product launches and a strong emphasis on operational efficiency [17][18]. - The company faces ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including tariffs that may impact gross margins and revenue expectations, particularly in China [19][20].

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) is experiencing strong momentum in its GYN Surgical portfolio, reflecting a growing global focus on women's health [1] - The company has expanded its market reach for minimally invasive surgical products through investments in commercial and market access capabilities outside the U.S. [1] - NovaSure, a product for treating abnormal uterine bleeding, has shown double-digit growth internationally despite domestic challenges [1] Market Overview - The U.S. uterine fibroids treatment devices market is projected to grow from $2.77 billion in 2024 at a CAGR of 9.3% through 2030 [2] - Women typically wait an average of 3.5 years before seeking treatment for fibroids, with hysterectomy being the most common option [2] - Increased awareness of minimally invasive treatment options presents growth opportunities for Hologic [2] Product Development and Acquisitions - Growth in the GYN Surgical segment has been driven by products like MyoSure and Fluent, along with strategic acquisitions such as Acessa Health in 2020 [3] - The recent acquisition of Gynesonics enhances Hologic's capabilities in treating mid-sized fibroids [3] Financial Performance and Projections - Hologic anticipates the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 to be the strongest for revenue growth in the GYN Surgical segment, forecasting an 11.9% year-over-year growth [4] - Hologic shares have decreased by 19.7% over the past 12 months, compared to a 15.5% decline in the industry [7] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors in the GYN Surgical segment include Medtronic and Johnson & Johnson, both of which are advancing their own surgical solutions [5][6] - Medtronic has initiated a clinical study for its Hugo robotic-assisted surgery system, while Johnson & Johnson has reached a milestone with its TECNIS ODYSSEY lenses [5][6] Valuation Metrics - Hologic is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.42X, which is lower than the industry average of 3.98X [9]

Core Insights - Hologic's international expansion is a crucial aspect of its growth strategy, but it faces macroeconomic challenges, particularly in China and Africa [1][8] - The Diagnostics segment is under pressure, but international markets are expected to contribute significantly to growth through 2026 and beyond [1] - The GYN Surgical segment is experiencing strong growth, particularly in international markets, with a nearly 25% increase in Q3 2025 [2][8] International Business Performance - Hologic's international business is projected to grow at a 4.7% CAGR from fiscal 2025 to 2027 [4] - The NovaSure product has shown consistent double-digit growth overseas, indicating strong potential for women's health advancements globally [2] - The Panther platform and Genius digital diagnostics system are achieving record utilization and positive feedback, respectively [3][8] Competitive Landscape - Abbott's international sales increased by 6.6% in Q2 2025, highlighting competitive dynamics in the market [5] - Thermo Fisher Scientific has launched new products targeting neurodegenerative disease research, indicating ongoing innovation in the industry [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Hologic shares have declined by 18.2% over the past year, slightly better than the industry's decline of 18.4% [7] - The stock is trading at a forward three-year price-to-sales ratio of 3.57X, below the industry average of 3.96X, suggesting potential value [9]

Core Insights - Hologic's latest quarterly results indicate progress, particularly in the Breast Health business, which is expected to return to healthy growth by the end of fiscal 2025 [1][9] - The company anticipates mid-single-digit revenue growth and high single-digit EPS growth in the fourth quarter, moving towards long-term financial goals [1] Breast Health Segment - The Breast Health segment's revenues improved sequentially in Q3 and slightly exceeded expectations, with a new leadership team and revamped sales strategy in place [5][9] - A new strategy to upgrade older gantries is expected to gain traction, reinforcing Hologic's market leadership [6] - The introduction of Genius AI Detection PRO enhances diagnostic accuracy and reduces radiologists' reading time by up to 24% [7] Interventional Breast Health - The acquisition of Endomagnetics has strengthened Hologic's interventional breast health portfolio, contributing to a 31.8% growth in the fiscal third quarter [8] Diagnostics Segment - The Panther platform's utilization is increasing, with significant potential in the U.S. vaginitis market and strong uptake of respiratory assays due to a severe flu season [10] - Plans to diversify the Fusion menu with IVD tests for gastrointestinal and hospital-acquired infections are underway [11] GYN Surgical Segment - International markets are driving momentum in GYN Surgical, with investments expanding access to minimally invasive surgical products [12] Valuation - Hologic shares are considered undervalued, trading at a forward five-year P/E of 14.41X compared to the industry average of 27.51X [13] Challenges - The Diagnostics business faces challenges outside the U.S., particularly in China, where revenue forecasts have been lowered by $20 million [16] - Tariff implications are a concern, with anticipated direct costs of $10 million-$12 million per quarter starting fiscal 2026 [17]

Core Insights - Hologic's international expansion is a key growth strategy, currently generating about 25% of total revenues from outside the U.S., which is lower than many peers, indicating significant room for growth [1][8] - The company has achieved over 10% annual international growth through targeted investments in international capabilities [1] - The Surgical division has seen over 20% growth in international business, supported by increased reimbursement and product guidelines [2] International Performance - MyoSure is experiencing rapid growth internationally due to untapped markets and demand for minimally invasive treatments [3] - Gynesonics, recently acquired, is expected to grow at a strong double-digit rate with Hologic's sales support [3] - International sales in Q2 were impacted by challenges such as a physician strike in South Korea and reduced hospital spending in China [4] Competitor Analysis - Becton, Dickinson and Company (BD) reported a 1.2% increase in international revenues in Q2 2025, with expectations of a $90 million hit to operating expenses due to tariffs [5] - Abbott's international sales accounted for approximately 61% of its 2024 net sales, with a 6.6% year-over-year increase in Q2 2025 [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Hologic shares have declined 8.5% year-to-date, compared to a 10.2% decline in the industry [7] - The stock is trading at a forward five-year price-to-earnings ratio of 14.84X, below the industry average of 28.28X [9] - Consensus estimates for Hologic's fiscal 2025 EPS have shown a downward trend over the past 90 days [10]

Core Insights - The demand for gynecology surgical instruments is increasing due to the rising prevalence of gynecological diseases and government investments in women's health, with a projected market growth rate of 8.26% CAGR from 2024 to 2032 [1] - Hologic's GYN Surgical business has shown a 7.6% CAGR over the past decade, driven by the MyoSure suite and the Fluent fluid management system [1][8] - The launch of the Fluent Pro system in late 2024 is expected to enhance MyoSure's performance and user experience, contributing positively to Hologic's Surgical performance [2] Market Position and Growth - Hologic's International Surgical segment remains the leading revenue driver, supported by investments in market development for minimally invasive GYN products [2] - Legacy NovaSure devices are gaining traction in Europe, despite declining volumes in the U.S., indicating significant expansion opportunities in international markets [3] - Inorganic investments, such as the acquisitions of Acessa Health and Gynesonics, have strengthened Hologic's product offerings and global market reach [4] Competitive Landscape - Hologic faces competition from major companies like Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic in the GYN Surgical space [5] - Johnson & Johnson's MedTech segment reported $8 billion in sales for Q1 2025, with a 4.1% year-over-year growth [6] - Medtronic's Medical Surgical Portfolio saw a 2% increase in Q4 2025, with expectations for improved growth as it expands its robotic platform [6] Financial Performance - Hologic's stock has declined by 8.7% year-to-date, slightly better than the industry's 9.1% decline [7] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.85, which is lower than the industry average of 28.39 [9] - Consensus estimates for Hologic's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings show a bearish trend, with current estimates remaining stable [10][11]

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) is currently attractively priced with a Value Score of B, trading at a forward five-year price-to-sales (P/S) of 3.39X, which is lower than its median of 4.33X and the industry average of 4.14X [1][4] - The company has faced a tough macroeconomic environment, resulting in a 10.8% year-to-date decline in shares, underperforming the industry and S&P 500 [5] - Despite returning to top-line growth in Q3 of fiscal 2024, fiscal 2025 has shown mixed performance with a 0.9% revenue increase in Q1 and a 1.2% decline in Q2 [7][10] Valuation Comparison - Hologic's P/S ratio of 3.39X is favorable compared to peers QIAGEN (3.30X) and Abbott (2.50X), but it trades at a premium to the broader Medical sector's historical average of 2.33X [4] - The company has reaffirmed its revenue guidance but lowered its adjusted EPS forecast to $4.15-$4.25 from $4.25-$4.35, indicating potential challenges ahead [12] Performance Challenges - Hologic's performance has been impacted by a stronger U.S. dollar, a significant drop in Breast Health revenues, and the loss of a $50 million annual revenue stream from HIV testing in Africa [8][10] - Analysts have become increasingly cautious, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 EPS decreasing by 2.1% to $4.19 over the past 90 days [13] Growth Drivers - The Surgical business has shown a 7.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last decade, driven by products like MyoSure and the acquisition of Gynesonics [15] - Hologic's strong financial health is highlighted by $169.5 million in operating cash generated in Q2 of fiscal 2025 and a cash position of $1.43 billion [16] Overall Outlook - While Hologic's Surgical division shows ongoing momentum and financial stability, macroeconomic headwinds and declining sales in key areas have negatively impacted performance [17] - The negative earnings estimate trend suggests continued near-term challenges, leading to a less compelling investment case at this time [18]

Core Insights - Hologic, Inc. is expected to report solid financial performance in its fiscal 2025 second quarter, particularly in the GYN Surgical segment, driven by international strength and contributions from its Diagnostics division [1][3][6] GYN Surgical Segment - The GYN Surgical division is projected to be the top performer, with a 20% increase in international sales in the previous quarter, driven by the MyoSure and NovaSure devices in Europe [3][5] - The tuck-in acquisition of Gynesonics is expected to enhance sales through the company's extensive GYN sales force, contributing to overall revenue growth [4] - Revenue growth for the GYN Surgical segment is projected at 3% compared to the same quarter in fiscal 2024 [5] Diagnostics Segment - The Diagnostics division is anticipated to show strong performance, primarily due to the core molecular diagnostics business, with ongoing adoption of the BV/CV/TV assay on the Panther platform [6][8] - The Aptima SARS-CoV-2 assay received full FDA clearance, which is expected to bolster confidence in testing and contribute to growth [7] - Modest revenue growth of 0.5% is projected for the Diagnostics segment in the upcoming quarter [8] Breast Health Segment - The Breast Health segment is expected to face challenges, with a projected revenue decrease of 3.6% due to capital equipment softness [9][11] - Service revenues are likely to remain solid, accounting for 40% of Breast Health sales, supported by the Interventional breast business and the addition of Endomagnetics [10] - The CE mark received for Affirm Contrast Biopsy Software is expected to expand access across Europe, enhancing the segment's offerings [10]