Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced an unexpected strong rally since the beginning of 2026, with gold prices reaching historical highs due to various stimulating factors, including geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - International gold prices surged from $4,340 per ounce at the beginning of January to a peak of $4,891.1 per ounce by January 21, marking a cumulative increase of 12.7% in less than 20 days [2]. - Domestic gold futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract price rising by 4.61% to surpass 1,100 yuan per gram [3]. Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - Gold stocks experienced a surge, with over ten gold-related stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Zhaojin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [4]. - The gold ETF (159562) rose by 5.73% on the day, accumulating a 25.82% increase over the first 13 trading days of the year, reaching a new historical net value high [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has driven significant inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on several countries, further straining transatlantic trade relations [7][8]. - Denmark's decision to sell approximately $1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds amid the Greenland dispute marked a significant move, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions [9]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been on a gold-buying spree, with net purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2024, the second-highest on record, and major buyers including China, Poland, and Turkey [11]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves significantly, with a total of 2,306.32 tons by the end of 2025, marking a historical high in the proportion of gold in its foreign exchange reserves [11]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts have raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and anticipated interest rate cuts [21]. - Other institutions, such as UBS and Citigroup, have set even higher targets, with Citigroup suggesting a potential short-term price of $5,000 per ounce [21][22]. Group 6: Investment Trends - The demand for gold bars and coins increased by 18% in 2025, reaching 1,250 tons, with significant contributions from China [16]. - The global gold ETF market saw a record net inflow of $89 billion in 2025, with total holdings reaching 4,025 tons, marking a historical peak [16]. Group 7: Strategic Value of Gold - The strategic value of gold is being redefined, transitioning from an optional asset to a necessary component in high-uncertainty markets, as recognized by various market participants [22]. - The gold ETF (159562) has become a popular investment tool, with significant inflows and a focus on gold mining companies, reflecting the growing interest in gold as a strategic asset [23].

Core Viewpoint - The recent changes in the international financial environment have highlighted the safe-haven and reserve attributes of gold, leading to a historic surge in gold prices, with New York futures reaching $4000 per ounce and spot gold hitting $4040 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and debt credit, prompting market expectations for continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which has driven funds into gold as a hedge against future rate cuts [1][2]. - Political changes in Europe and Japan have weakened confidence in sovereign currencies, with Japan's new leadership promoting a dual easing policy and France facing challenges in fiscal consolidation, increasing sovereign debt risks in Europe [2]. - Significant capital inflows into gold ETFs from the U.S. and Europe indicate a growing demand for safe-haven assets, as geopolitical tensions and rising debt risks in developed economies encourage private investors to increase gold allocations [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Analysts predict that over the next 2-3 years, factors such as the restructuring of the global credit system, de-dollarization trends, continued central bank gold purchases, and supply-demand imbalances will provide strong support for gold prices [2]. - Despite short-term caution regarding gold price movements, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, with a potential shift in the definition of "safe assets" signaling a new order in financial markets [3]. - Investment opportunities in gold-related assets include gold commodity ETFs and gold stock ETFs, which have shown significant growth due to increased demand for gold [4].