Core Insights - Coty Inc. is set to lose the Gucci fragrance license in 2028 to L'Oréal, which has secured a 50-year exclusive license for Gucci's fragrance and beauty products [1][2] - Analysts predict that this loss could significantly impact Coty's financial performance, estimating a 12.5% dilution to total company EBITDA and a 14% dilution to the business excluding the Consumer Beauty assets currently for sale [3] Financial Impact - The Gucci license is estimated to represent approximately 10% of Coty's sales, equating to about $555 million, and around 12% of total adjusted EBITDA, approximately $121 million [5] - If Coty sells its Consumer brands, the Gucci license could account for a larger share, potentially around 14% of company sales and adjusted EBITDA [5] Strategic Considerations - Coty is currently focusing on balancing owned and licensed brands, with 76% of its portfolio being owned or under long-term licenses, while 14% of this is comprised of Gucci [6] - The expiration of the Gucci license poses challenges for Coty in maintaining its revenue and profitability, especially in the current business climate [6] Risk Assessment - Analysts from TD Securities estimate that the expiration of the Gucci license could lead to a negative earnings-per-share impact ranging from -4% to -19% annually for Coty [7]

Core Insights - The fragrance category is experiencing growth challenges but has a strong outlook due to its expansion into new markets and sectors [1] - L'Oréal's potential acquisition of Kering Beauty could significantly enhance its perfume portfolio, which has been a major growth driver in the beauty market [2][5] - The deal could reshape the beauty market landscape and lead to unexpected mergers among companies and brands [3] Group 1: L'Oréal and Kering Beauty Acquisition - A $4 billion sale of Kering's beauty unit to L'Oréal is nearing completion, which could be a transformative move in the beauty industry [5] - The acquisition would allow L'Oréal to add luxury brands like Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga, and Creed to its portfolio, enhancing its competitive position [6][7] - Kering's divestiture of its beauty division is part of a broader strategy to address financial struggles and reinvest in its core brands [4][20] Group 2: Market Implications - The acquisition could intensify competition in the fragrance market, particularly against Coty Inc. and Estée Lauder [9][10] - Kering's financial difficulties, including a significant debt load of €9.5 billion, are influencing its decision to sell its beauty division [21][23] - The fragrance market is projected to generate $62.11 billion in sales this year, indicating a highly fragmented and competitive landscape [8] Group 3: Kering's Strategic Moves - Kering Beauty's sales increased by 9% in the first half of the year, driven by strong performance from Creed fragrances [27] - The company has been focusing on relaunching its fragrance lines and exploring new market opportunities, particularly in Asia [28] - Kering's previous acquisition of Creed for €3.5 billion has raised concerns about value destruction and the sustainability of its beauty strategy [30][31]