Summary of Key Points from TSMC 2Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Industry**: Semiconductors Core Financial Results - **2Q25 Revenue**: NT$933.792 million, representing an increase of 11.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 38.6% year-over-year (YoY) [7] - **Operating Expenses (Opex)**: NT$83.946 million, a decrease of 2.7% QoQ and an increase of 17.3% YoY [7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: NT$15.36, up 10.2% QoQ and 60.7% YoY, exceeding Morgan Stanley's estimate of NT$14.60 [7] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: 58.6%, a slight decrease of 17 basis points (bps) QoQ but an increase of 545 bps YoY [7] - **Operating Margin (OPM)**: 49.6%, up 112 bps QoQ and 708 bps YoY [7] 3Q25 Guidance - **Expected Revenue**: Between US$31.8 billion and US$33.0 billion, indicating an 8% increase at the mid-point QoQ [10] - **Expected EPS**: NT$13.33, a decrease of 13.2% QoQ but an increase of 6.3% YoY [10] - **Gross Margin Guidance**: Expected to be between 55.5% and 57.5% [10] Strategic Insights - **Wafer Pricing**: TSMC is expected to achieve its goal of over 53% gross margin, supported by strong execution and potential wafer price hikes [12][14] - **AI Revenue Growth**: TSMC's AI semiconductor revenue is projected to account for approximately 34% of its revenue by 2027 [22] - **Chip Production**: TSMC is expected to produce 5.1 million chips in 2025, with full-year GB200 NVL72 shipments expected to reach 30,000 [24] Market Dynamics - **Demand for Advanced Nodes**: There is strong demand for TSMC's 2nm and 3nm nodes, driven by smartphone and high-performance computing (HPC) applications [27][29] - **China's AI Semiconductor Demand**: The demand for AI semiconductors in China is expected to grow significantly, with the total addressable market (TAM) for cloud AI projected to reach US$48 billion by 2027 [44] Risks and Considerations - **FX Impact**: The potential foreign exchange impact on TSMC's financials could be offset by strong operational execution and pricing strategies [12] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and US restrictions on China may pose risks to TSMC's operations and market access [84] Conclusion - TSMC's strong financial performance in 2Q25 and optimistic guidance for 3Q25 reflect robust demand in the semiconductor market, particularly in AI and advanced technology nodes. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities while navigating potential risks associated with geopolitical factors and market dynamics.

What more do we know about this Nvidia announcement and what it tells us about the Trump administration's thinking on export controls. Well, I think it's interesting that it was Nvidia who announced this, Not the White House. I'll get to that and what that means in a little bit.But essentially, this is a great victory for CEO Jensen Huang, who, by the way, is in Beijing right now, just appeared on state television. And we learned of this development on the H 20 chip through a blog post from Nvidia, essentia ...