证券研究报告 科技 2025 年 5 月 08 日│美国 动态点评 AI 驱动的数据中心建设仍具备增长逻辑，SMCI 能否抢占先机？ 从 1Q25 看，美股科技巨头持续加码，对 AI 基建投入热度未减，谷歌/Meta/ 微软/亚马逊 Capex 分别同比增长 43/104/53/74%至 172/137/ 167/243 亿美 元。全年看，Meta 更上调 Capex 指引至 640-720 亿美元（原值 600- 650 亿美元），谷歌/微软/亚马逊亦分别维持 FY25 750/800/1000 亿美元的高位 指引。此外，IDC 预计未来五年 AI 服务器市场规模 CAGR 可达 16.3%，而 液冷巨头 Vertiv 也认为数据中心市场规模于同期 CAGR 为 15-17%，中期增 长逻辑仍具支撑。考虑到英伟达 GB 系列 NVL72 或面临散热与信号干扰等 挑战，上半年出货或较少，但部分客户已转单至 HGX Blackwell。英伟达在 GTC 25 也表示，Blackwell Ultra NVL72 计划 2H25 推出，最近 Digitimes 也提到该芯片或改回原来 Bianca 架构，以确保良率 ...

Core Insights - The AI infrastructure market is expected to exceed $200 billion in spending by 2028, with both Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise well-positioned to benefit from this growth opportunity [2] Dell Technologies - Dell Technologies is experiencing strong demand for its AI-optimized servers, particularly the PowerEdge XE9680L, driven by digital transformation and interest in generative AI applications [3] - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, Dell's AI-optimized server orders increased by $1.7 billion, with shipments totaling $2.1 billion and a backlog of $4.1 billion [5] - Dell's partnership with companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft is expanding, enhancing its AI capabilities and enterprise AI adoption [6] - Dell's shares are trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 0.5X, indicating a relatively low valuation [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dell's fiscal 2026 earnings is $9.34 per share, reflecting a 14.74% year-over-year increase [15] Hewlett Packard Enterprise - Hewlett Packard is also benefiting from strong demand for its AI-optimized servers, with its server business growing 30% year-over-year to $4.3 billion in Q1 of fiscal 2025 [7] - The launch of HPE's ProLiant Gen 12 server platform is expected to improve performance and energy efficiency, potentially replacing multiple older server generations and reducing power consumption by at least 65% [8] - HPE's GreenLake cloud product has achieved significant growth, with annual recurring revenue surpassing $2 billion, a 46% increase year-over-year [9] - HPE's shares are trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 0.52X, slightly higher than Dell's [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HPE's fiscal 2025 earnings is $1.94 per share, indicating a 2.51% decline year-over-year [15] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Dell's shares have decreased by 34.9%, while HPE's shares have dropped by 37.6%, largely due to broader market weaknesses and rising trade tensions [10] - Dell holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), making it a stronger pick compared to HPE, which has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [17]