Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors regarding Industrial Fulian's revenue forecast for Q4 2025 have led to significant market reactions, including a stock price drop of 7.8% on November 24, 2023, prompting the company to issue a clarification stating that operations are proceeding as planned and there are no adjustments to revenue targets [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - In Q3 2025, Industrial Fulian reported revenue of 243.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.81%, and a net profit of 10.37 billion yuan, up 62.04%, both marking record highs for a single quarter [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 603.93 billion yuan and a net profit of 22.49 billion yuan, nearing last year's total figures [2]. - The growth is primarily driven by the expansion of the AI server market, large-scale deliveries of AI cabinet products for data centers, and explosive growth in cloud service provider business, with GPU AI server revenue increasing over 300% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Product Development and Operations - Industrial Fulian's GB200 product shipments are progressing smoothly, and the GB300 product has entered mass production in Q3, with improvements in yield and testing efficiency [2]. - The company anticipates that declining unit costs and improved yields will positively impact gross margins in Q4, maintaining confidence in delivery efficiency as manufacturing processes are optimized [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Clarifications - Following the rumors about potential revenue adjustments, Industrial Fulian issued a statement confirming that all operations, including product shipments and customer demand, are normal and in line with established plans [1]. - The company has not lowered its profit targets for Q4 and is continuing to develop next-generation products as scheduled [1].

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 24 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 2025 年 50%以上数据中心项目或将应用液冷技术，关注北交所液冷服务器产业链标的 ——北交所科技成长产业跟踪第五十二期（20251123） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 内容目录 | 1. | 液冷服务器：2025 年 50%以上数据中心项目或将应用液冷技术 | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1. | 新闻：基于英特尔至强 6900 系列性能核处理器的双路冷板式全域液冷服务器发布 | 5 | | 1.2. | 行业：2025 年中国液冷服务器市场规模预计可达 218 亿元 | 5 | | 2. | 总量：北交所科技成长股股价涨跌幅中值-9.77% | 12 | | 3. | 行业： ...

2025.11.24 本文字数：1314，阅读时长大约2.5分钟 作者 |第一财经郑栩彤 关于"AI泡沫论"的讨论仍在进行，美股多只算力相关个股股价震荡。上周英伟达发布超市场预期的最新季度财报后，该公司股价连续两日下跌。 A股的英伟达概念股工业富联近期股价也在震荡下行。10月30日到11月24日，工业富联股价已累计下跌30.77%，市值蒸发超4000亿元。截至11月24日收 盘，工业富联股价下跌7.8%。 工业富联第三季度营收和净利润则则创下单季度历史新高。第三季度营收2431.72亿元，同比增长42.81%，净利润103.73亿元，同比增长62.04%，前三季 度营收逼近去年全年营收。 但一些机构已在第三季度减持英伟达。对冲基金桥水在第三季度大幅减持芯片巨头英伟达，减持比例近三分之二。"硅谷风投教父"彼得·蒂尔旗下的基金 Thiel Macro Fund第三季度出售了约53.7万股英伟达股票，占其投资组合的近40%。 除了机构减持，英伟达与OpenAI的绑定关系也受到市场关注，英伟达此前计划助力OpenAI构建和部署至少10吉瓦的AI数据中心，这些数据中心包含数百 万块英伟达GPU。但OpenAI在大模型领 ...

公司发布FY25/26Q2财报，超预期。FY25/26Q2实现营业收入204.52亿美元，同比+14.58%;实现调整后 的净利润5.12亿美元，同比+25.18%，由于净利润受到认股权证公允价值变动的影响较大，因此重点关 注调整后的净利润。整体来看，公司收入小幅超预期，净利润大超预期。 IDG智能设备业务集团 申万宏源发布研报称，维持联想集团(00992)"买入"评级，业绩超预期，营收和调整后净利润分别同比 增长14.58%和25.18%。增长主要由AIPC加速渗透(全球出货量占比达33%)和AI服务器业务强劲驱动(收 入同比增23.65%)，公司预计AI趋势将延续高景气 申万宏源主要观点如下： 业绩表现 ISG基础设施解决方案 AI服务器双位数高增，后续将维持高景气。FY25/26Q2ISG板块实现营业收入40.87亿美元，同比 +23.65%。拆分来看，AI服务器高两位数增长，订单储备情况良好;海神液冷技术收入同比大增154%， 公司AI服务器业务转型持续推进，预计在规模效应+全球供应链体系的加持下，ISG板块将实现扭亏。 FY25/26Q2公司毛利率为15.39%，环比+0.66pcts，验证公司AI ...

Core Insights - The technology cycle of AI is unlikely to end in the short term, with a continued focus on computing power as a key driver [1] - NVIDIA's recent earnings report exceeded expectations, indicating that the demand for computing power is still rapidly growing [1] - Google's Gemini3 model has received positive market feedback for its strong capabilities [1] - The hardware sector for computing power is expected to see significant growth in light modules and other components in the coming year [1] Industry Overview - The ongoing investment in computing infrastructure both domestically and internationally is expected to sustain high demand in the light module market [1] - The Communication ETF (515880) is the largest in its category, with light modules accounting for 52% and servers for 22% of its composition as of October 28 [1] - When combined with fiber optics and copper connections, these components represent over 81% of the ETF, reflecting the fundamental strength of overseas computing power [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 14.6% year-on-year, reaching $20.45 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.7% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin increased to 2.5%, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 0.3% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from the IDG segment was $15.11 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.7%, with a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] - The ISG segment generated $4.09 billion in revenue, which was below Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9%, but still showed a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [1] - The SSG segment achieved a record revenue of $2.56 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.2%, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin was reported at 15.4%, slightly lower than Bloomberg's expectation by 0.06 percentage points [1] - The operating profit margin for the IDG segment was 7.3%, in line with expectations, while the SSG segment reported an operating profit margin of 22.3%, exceeding expectations by 3.1 percentage points [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates adjusted net profit growth of 16.9%, 9.9%, and 13.3% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, translating to $1.68 billion, $1.85 billion, and $2.10 billion respectively [1] - The stock price is projected to have a PE ratio of 9.2X, 8.4X, and 7.4X for FY25/26 to FY27/28 [1]

Group 1: AI and Energy Demand - The AI competition has shifted from chip supply to power supply, with significant implications for data center investments, projected to reach $3 trillion globally [1] - AI's energy consumption is rapidly increasing, with the energy demand for AI inference workloads expected to reach petawatt-hours by 2026, potentially overwhelming power grids [2][3] - The cost of electricity for data centers is substantial, with a 1 GW data center potentially incurring annual electricity costs of $700 million to $876 million [3] Group 2: Energy Strategies of Tech Giants - Tech companies are increasingly viewing energy as a survival necessity, with energy efficiency improvements translating to significant cost savings [4] - Major tech firms are adopting aggressive strategies, such as building their own power plants to ensure energy supply for their data centers [5][6] - The "Stargate" project, involving OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, aims to invest $500 billion in constructing multiple giant data centers globally [6] Group 3: China's Energy Strategy - China is leveraging its clean energy advantages and policy guidance to meet AI computing power demands, with a massive $1.2 trillion power project expected to fulfill 75% of the national AI computing needs [7] Group 4: Cooling Technologies - AI data centers face a cooling crisis, with cooling energy consumption accounting for approximately 40% of total power demand [9] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for AI data centers, with its ability to handle higher heat densities compared to traditional air cooling methods [11] - The global data center cooling market is projected to grow from $18.78 billion in 2025 to $42.48 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 12.4% [11] Group 5: Lenovo's Position in Liquid Cooling - Lenovo has established itself as a key player in the liquid cooling market, with a 154% year-on-year revenue growth in its liquid cooling technology [13] - The company’s liquid cooling solutions have demonstrated significant energy efficiency, achieving a PUE value below 1.1 [13] - Lenovo's liquid cooling systems have been deployed in over 80,000 units globally, showcasing its competitive edge and market recognition [14] Group 6: Future Outlook - The global AI boom is transforming energy infrastructure into a high-growth asset class, with liquid cooling technology becoming a critical solution for energy efficiency [15] - Companies like Lenovo are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for efficient cooling solutions in the AI sector [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Lenovo, with a target price adjusted to HKD 14.00 from the previous HKD 16.00, reflecting a 12.5% decrease [5][7]. Core Insights - Lenovo reported a revenue of USD 20.45 billion for 2QFY26, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 1.7%. The Non-HKFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 512 million, up 25.2% year-over-year, exceeding the company's prior guidance by approximately 19% [1][5]. - The company benefits from a strong position in the global PC market, holding the largest market share and demonstrating robust supply chain management capabilities, which enhances its resilience against industry cycles [1][2]. - The AI-related business has become a core growth driver, with its revenue contribution reaching 30% and a year-over-year increase of 13 percentage points [1][5]. Summary by Sections IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - IDG's revenue increased by 11.8% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 60%. The global PC market share rose by 1.8 percentage points to 25.6%, marking a record high [2]. - Driven by mixed AI demand, PC revenue grew by 17% year-over-year, with AI PC penetration increasing by 16 percentage points to 33% of total shipments [2]. ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG's revenue grew by 23.7% year-over-year, primarily due to strong demand for cloud infrastructure and enterprise solutions. The AI server business recorded high double-digit revenue growth [3]. - The Neptune liquid cooling technology saw a revenue increase of 154% year-over-year, reinforcing the company's leadership in energy-efficient AI infrastructure [3]. SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG achieved an 18.3% year-over-year revenue growth, maintaining double-digit growth for 18 consecutive quarters, with an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [4]. - The project and solution services, along with operational services, accounted for 60% of SSG's total revenue, indicating a stable growth trajectory [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects a slight decrease in Non-HKFRS net profit estimates for FY26, FY27, and FY28 by 1.8%, 1.7%, and 1.7% respectively, with expected profits of USD 1.66 billion, USD 1.85 billion, and USD 2.08 billion [5][10]. - The expected Non-HKFRS EPS for FY26, FY27, and FY28 is projected to be USD 0.12, USD 0.14, and USD 0.15 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 15.5%, 11.4%, and 12.4% [5][10].

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜何小桃 兰素英 ①【三大期指齐涨】道指期货涨0.44%、标普500指数期货涨1.06%、纳指期货涨1.41%。 ②【明星科技股普涨】明星科技股盘前普涨。截至发稿，特斯拉、谷歌涨超2%，Meta、亚马逊、微软涨1%。 ③【英伟达涨超5%，Q3营收利润均涨超60%】截至发稿，英伟达上涨5.42%。当地时间11月19日，英伟达2026财年第三季度业绩显示，营收达到创纪录的 570亿美元，高于公司的整体指引区间，并且较分析师预期高出3%以上。营收同比增速从前一季度的56%提升至62%，这是自2024财年第四财季以来首次 营收增速较前一季度加快。净利润约为319亿美元，同比大涨65%。 ④【AMD涨超5%】截至发稿，AMD上涨5.19%，思科上涨0.48%。当地时间11月19日，沙特AI公司Humain宣布将与AMD、思科系统公司成立合资企业， 计划于2030年前在沙特阿拉伯建设并运营高达1吉瓦（GW）的AI基础设施，以助力沙特发展成为面向区域及全球客户的世界级AI解决方案领先供应商。 该计划设有多阶段扩容目标，首阶段将在沙特部署100兆瓦的项目，后期将逐步将产能扩展至数千兆瓦，旨在为全球A ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Lenovo's strategies and outlook in response to challenges in the tech industry, particularly regarding AI and component shortages, emphasizing that while there may be short-term pressures, the overall direction of AI development is positive and not a bubble [3][6]. Group 1: AI and Market Dynamics - Lenovo's chairman, Yang Yuanqing, believes that the current AI development phase is not a bubble, as it is entering a stage of widespread application and infrastructure investment, similar to the internet boom [3][6]. - The demand for components such as memory and solid-state drives is experiencing significant growth, with price increases expected to persist throughout 2026 [3][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Management - Lenovo is one of the largest buyers of components in the industry, maintaining close relationships with suppliers and securing optimal contracts to ensure supply stability for the upcoming year [4][5]. - The company is cautious about user demand growth exceeding forecasts, which could impact pricing strategies [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the second fiscal quarter ending September 30, 2025, Lenovo reported a revenue increase of 15% year-on-year to 146.4 billion RMB, achieving a historical high for the quarter, with adjusted net profit rising 25% to 3.66 billion RMB [6][7]. - AI-related business revenue now accounts for 30% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points year-on-year, driven by AI devices, servers, and solutions [6][7]. Group 4: Business Segments - The IDG smart device segment generated 108.1 billion RMB, a 12% increase year-on-year, with AI terminal devices making up 36% of IDG's revenue, a nearly 17 percentage point increase [7]. - The ISG infrastructure solutions segment saw revenue of approximately 29.3 billion RMB, a 24% year-on-year increase, with AI server revenue experiencing high double-digit growth [7]. - Lenovo plans to launch a personal super-intelligent device globally in January, integrating various wearable and environmental sensing devices for enhanced user interaction [7].