Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals & Mining, specifically focusing on the Indian steel sector and its relation to China's economic policies and property market recovery [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **China's 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP)**: The upcoming plan is expected to prioritize economic resilience, national security, and inclusive development over explicit GDP targets, reflecting China's structural challenges from the property downturn [1][2] - **Strategic Importance**: The 15th FYP is deemed more significant than the 14th, addressing issues such as youth unemployment, income disparities, and the need for a policy reset towards inclusive growth and structural resilience [2][3] - **Property Market Challenges**: The primary domestic challenge for China from 2026 to 2030 will be addressing the structural imbalances in the property sector, which is crucial for economic stability [3] Implications for Indian Steel Sector - **Positive Outlook for Indian Steel**: The anticipated recovery in China's property sector is expected to boost domestic consumption, which will positively impact global hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices and reduce exports [4] - **Key Factors Supporting Indian Steel**: 1. Strong domestic demand momentum 2. Higher utilization rates due to lagging capacity additions 3. China's anti-involution measures 4. Potential roadmap for property recovery in China 5. Extension of safeguard duties to support prices [4] Additional Important Insights - **Current Market Conditions**: Recent data indicates a decline in new housing starts in China, reaching the lowest level in a decade, while excavator sales, a leading indicator for construction activity, have shown signs of recovery [6][8] - **Price Trends**: Average housing prices in China have been consistently falling, and weaker domestic consumption has led to lower domestic HRC prices [10][15] - **Future Expectations**: Analysts expect Indian domestic margins to improve as demand recovers in the second half of FY26 [21] Company Ratings - **Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)**: Current price at INR 1,008 with a Buy rating [26] - **JSW Steel (JSTL IN)**: Current price at INR 1,163 with a Buy rating [29] Risks to Consider - **Lower Spreads**: If Chinese HRC margins do not recover or if net exports from China increase, it could pressure export HRC prices and domestic margins [27][31] - **Delays in Expansion**: Delays in commissioning new projects could lead to lower than expected volumes and potential cost overruns [27][31] - **Domestic Demand Disruptions**: If domestic demand does not grow as anticipated, it could negatively impact domestic HRC margins and increase reliance on exports [27][31]