Riverwater Partners, an investment management company, released its “Small Cap Strategy” Q3 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Small Cap Core Strategy reported solid results for the quarter but did not keep pace with the sharp rally, thus lagging the benchmark. The market’s preference for lower-quality companies persisted in the quarter and contributed significantly to the benchmark’s outperformance. On the other hand, the strategy remains focused on higher-quality compa ...

Summary of Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) - **Market Cap**: Rmb210.2 billion / $29.5 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb201.5 billion / $28.3 billion - **Industry**: China Industrial Tech & Machinery Key Points and Arguments 1. **Rating Downgrade**: Sanhua A has been downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to recent stock performance and overly optimistic market expectations regarding humanoid robots [1][2][16] 2. **Stock Performance**: Since the announcement of Tesla's Masterplan IV on September 2, 2025, Sanhua A and H shares have increased by 51% and 31% respectively, reflecting market optimism about long-term revenue opportunities from humanoid robot actuators [1][16] 3. **Revenue Expectations**: Current valuation implies that Sanhua A would need to achieve 0.9 million to 2.0 million units of Tesla Optimus sales, which is deemed unlikely within the next 12 months [1][16][19] 4. **Earnings Growth Moderation**: Anticipated moderation in earnings growth over the next 2-3 quarters due to high base effects in HVAC and EV component segments, compounded by tighter trade-in subsidies [1][20] 5. **3Q25 Financial Performance**: Sanhua reported a strong 3Q25 performance, primarily driven by effective SG&A expense control, leading to a revision of 2025-30E EPS estimates upward by 4-8% [2][25] 6. **Target Price Adjustments**: New 12-month target prices are set at Rmb40.90 for Sanhua A and HK$43.10 for Sanhua H, indicating an 18% downside for A and a 5% upside for H [1][2] 7. **Future Product Launch Delays**: The launch of Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 has been postponed to early 2026, which may impact Sanhua's revenue projections from humanoid robots [19] 8. **Segment Performance Forecast**: Expected revenue growth for HVAC components to slow down to -2% to 5% year-over-year in upcoming quarters, while EV thermal management revenue is projected to grow modestly at 12% [20][21][23] Additional Important Insights 1. **Valuation Multiples**: The target multiple for Sanhua has been raised from a 2030E P/E of 21x to 25x based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the core business and humanoid robot segment [2][27] 2. **Market Share Sensitivity**: The valuation sensitivity analysis indicates that achieving the implied humanoid robot shipment expectations will be challenging, especially given Tesla's shipment target of 1 million units by 2030 [16][17] 3. **Cash Flow and Financial Ratios**: Sanhua's financial metrics indicate a healthy cash flow situation, with free cash flow projected to increase significantly over the next few years [13][25] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Sanhua Intelligent Controls, highlighting the company's current standing, future outlook, and potential challenges in the market.

Summary of Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) - **Market Cap**: Rmb210.2 billion / $29.5 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb201.5 billion / $28.3 billion - **Industry**: China Industrial Tech & Machinery Key Points and Arguments 1. **Rating Downgrade**: Sanhua A has been downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to recent stock outperformance, while Sanhua H remains at Buy. The stock prices have increased by +51% for Sanhua A and +31% for Sanhua H since Tesla's Masterplan IV announcement on September 2, 2025, indicating market optimism regarding humanoid robot actuator revenue opportunities [1][16][19]. 2. **Market Expectations**: Current valuations imply that Sanhua A could achieve 0.9 million to 2.0 million units of Tesla Optimus sales, which is deemed unlikely within the next 12 months, especially given Tesla's target of 1 million units by 2030 [1][16][19]. 3. **Earnings Growth Moderation**: Anticipated earnings growth for Sanhua is expected to moderate over the next 2-3 quarters due to a high base effect in both HVAC and EV component segments, compounded by tighter trade-in subsidies [1][20][21]. 4. **3Q25 Financial Performance**: Sanhua reported a strong 3Q25 performance, primarily driven by effective control of SG&A expenses, leading to a revision of 2025-2030 EPS estimates upward by 4-8% [2][25]. 5. **Target Price Adjustments**: The 12-month target prices for Sanhua A and H have been set at Rmb40.90 and HK$43.10, respectively, reflecting an 18% downside for Sanhua A and a 5% upside for Sanhua H [2][25]. 6. **Valuation Multiples**: The target multiple has been increased from a 2030E P/E of 21x to 25x, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis of core and humanoid robot businesses [2][27]. 7. **Revenue Forecasts**: Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: Rmb32,023.4 million - 2026: Rmb36,563.1 million - 2027: Rmb44,918.0 million This indicates a growth rate of 14.6% in 2025 and 14.2% in 2026 [4][13]. 8. **Segment Performance**: The HVAC component segment is expected to face growth pressure, with revenue growth forecasted to slow to -2% in 4Q25, while the EV thermal management segment is projected to see modest growth of 12% in the same period [20][21][23]. 9. **Market Valuation Context**: Sanhua A/H is currently trading at 47x/37x 12-month forward P/E, which is significantly above the historical average, indicating potential overvaluation [28]. 10. **Future Checkpoints**: The next significant assessment of Sanhua's opportunities will occur in February/March 2026, coinciding with the planned launch of Tesla's Gen 3 product [1][19]. Additional Important Information - **Cash Flow and Financial Health**: Sanhua's free cash flow is projected to improve, with net income expected to rise from Rmb3,099.2 million in 2024 to Rmb6,005.8 million by 2027 [13][25]. - **Dividend Policy**: The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain stable at around 30% [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current standing, market expectations, and future outlook.

Core Insights - Lennox International, Inc. has completed the acquisition of the HVAC Division of NSI Industries for approximately $550 million, which includes the Duro Dyne and Supco brands, enhancing its HVAC portfolio [1][3] - NSI Industries will focus on its core electrical manufacturing business, pivoting away from HVAC [2][4] - The acquisition is seen as a strategic fit, allowing Lennox to expand its manufacturing and distribution capabilities in the HVAC sector [4][5] Company Developments - The acquisition strengthens Lennox's presence in the HVAC components sector, particularly in the North American market [3][4] - NSI's HVAC President expressed enthusiasm about joining Lennox, emphasizing a commitment to operational excellence and product innovation [4] - Sentinel Capital Partners, the seller, aims to maximize long-term value through strategic repositioning of assets [5] Industry Trends - The HVAC industry is experiencing consolidation as companies seek to achieve scale to meet the demand for energy-efficient systems and enhance supply chain resilience [6]

Summary of Sanhua Intelligent Controls Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050.HK/002050.SZ) - **Industry**: HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) and EV (Electric Vehicle) thermal management components Key Investment Thesis - **Target Price**: Initiated H-share at Buy with a 12-month target price (TP) of HK$33.2, implying a 24% upside [1] - **Growth Forecast**: Expected revenue and net profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% from 2025 to 2030 [1][3] - **Humanoid Robot Actuators**: Projected to contribute 25% of total revenue and 18% of net profit by 2030, leveraging existing mechanical and electrical expertise [1][23] Core Business Performance - **HVAC Segment Growth**: Forecasted to grow at an 11% CAGR from 2025E to 2030E, driven by: - 19% CAGR in commercial HVAC due to market share gains and sensor product ramp-up - 3% CAGR in residential HVAC, slightly above stable global AC production [2][46] - **EV Thermal Management**: Expected to grow at a 14% CAGR from 2025E to 2030E, supported by increased global EV penetration [2] Financial Metrics - **Valuation**: H-share trading at 29x 12-month forward P/E, below historical average of 31x since 2018 [19] - **Revenue Projections**: Total revenue expected to reach Rmb 73,045 million by 2030, with a 19% CAGR [21] - **Gross Margin**: Expected to stabilize around 27% through 2030 [21] Market Position and Competitive Advantages - **Market Share**: Dominant positions in HVAC components with significant shares in various product categories (e.g., 55% in 4-way reversing valves) [46] - **R&D and Manufacturing**: Agile R&D capabilities and scalable manufacturing processes, producing over 100 million motors annually [25][26] - **Global Footprint**: 20-30% of capacity outside China, enhancing supply chain resilience [27] Risks and Challenges - **Customer Concentration Risk**: High dependency on a limited number of customers [4] - **Market Growth Deceleration**: Potential slowdown in the domestic market for HVAC and automotive segments post-subsidy phase-out [4] - **Competition**: Increased competition in humanoid robot actuator assembly [4] Humanoid Robot Market Insights - **Market Potential**: Humanoid robots expected to become a widely adopted terminal device, with significant demand anticipated as costs decrease [37] - **Sanhua's Role**: Projected to hold a 70% market share in actuator assembly for humanoid robots by 2030, with revenue from this segment expected to reach Rmb 18 billion [23][34] - **Global Shipment Forecast**: Anticipated shipments of humanoid robots to reach 150,000 units by 2030 [30] Conclusion Sanhua Intelligent Controls is positioned for robust growth in both its core HVAC and EV thermal management businesses, while also capitalizing on emerging opportunities in the humanoid robot actuator market. The company's strong market position, combined with its innovative capabilities and global manufacturing footprint, supports a positive long-term outlook despite potential risks associated with market concentration and competition.