Core Insights - Morgan Stanley analysts have raised price targets for Seagate Technology and Western Digital, indicating strong growth potential for both companies in the hard disk drive (HDD) market [2][5] - The HDD market is currently undersupplied by up to 10%, which is driving higher prices and demand forecasts through the first half of 2027 [4][5] - The increasing demand for data storage, driven by cloud infrastructure spending and AI technologies, positions HDD makers as beneficiaries in the evolving tech landscape [3][5] Company Performance - Seagate's stock has increased by 168% year-to-date, while Western Digital's stock has risen by 160% [6] - Both companies have received an "overweight" rating from Morgan Stanley, with new price targets set at $265 for Seagate and $171 for Western Digital [2][5] - Seagate holds an IBD Composite Rating of 98, ranking second in the Computer-Data Storage group, while Western Digital also has a rating of 98, placing it third [7] Market Trends - The Computer-Data Storage industry has performed well, ranking third out of 197 industry groups tracked by IBD, with a 40% increase overall year-to-date [8] - The demand for HDDs is being bolstered by the perception that these stocks are less cyclical than in the past, potentially allowing for higher price-to-earnings multiples [5] - The spinoff of Sandisk by Western Digital has also contributed to the positive performance of the group, with Sandisk shares up over 200% since its Nasdaq debut [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the resurgence of traditional tech companies like Seagate and Western Digital amidst the AI boom, highlighting their critical role in data storage for AI applications [1][6][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - Seagate Technology Holdings Plc has emerged as the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 Index this year, with a remarkable increase of 156% [5]. - Western Digital Corp ranks third in performance with a 137% gain, while Micron Technology Inc has seen a 93% rise, following a record 12-session winning streak [5]. - Despite their recent performance, Seagate, Western Digital, and Micron are generally considered among the cheapest stocks in the S&P 500 due to their cyclical nature [11]. Group 2: Market Trends and Valuations - The stock market is experiencing a shift towards older technology sectors, with significant investments in infrastructure to support AI, including semiconductors and data centers [3][6]. - Seagate's valuation is currently at 20 times estimated profits, which is considered attractive given the strong demand outlook for its products [13]. - Analysts have noted that these stocks have risen rapidly, with Seagate trading over 20% above the average price projection, indicating potential profit-taking opportunities for investors [16]. Group 3: Revenue Projections - Seagate's revenue is projected to rise by 16% in fiscal 2026, down from 39% in fiscal 2025, while Western Digital is also expected to see a 16% revenue increase after a 27% decline in the previous fiscal year [15]. - Micron is anticipated to have the strongest sales outlook, with revenue expected to climb by 48% this year and 33% next [15].

Core Viewpoint - Western Digital announced an increase in prices across its hard disk drive product line due to unprecedented demand for its products, leading to a 5% jump in its shares during early market action [2]. Group 1: Company Actions - The company is increasing prices for its hard disk drive products [2]. - This decision is driven by unprecedented demand for every capacity in its product portfolio [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Western Digital's shares experienced a 5% increase in early trading [2].

Summary of Western Digital Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Western Digital (NasdaqGS: WDC) - **Event**: Goldman Sachs Communicopia and Technology Conference - **Date**: September 10, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Demand-Supply Dynamics**: The demand environment is strong and improving, with a misconception about a significant demand-supply imbalance. Supply is tight, but Western Digital believes it can meet demand effectively [6][9] - **Growth Forecast**: The storage business is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% to 23% from 2024 to 2028, driven by AI advancements [7] - **Areal Density**: Growth will primarily come from increasing areal density rather than unit capacity. Current average capacity is around 21-22 terabytes per unit, with plans to increase to 36 and eventually 44 terabytes [8][12] Pricing and Market Conditions - **Stable Pricing Environment**: The average selling price (ASP) per terabyte has remained stable, with fluctuations of about ±1% over recent quarters. Long-term agreements (LTAs) with major customers provide visibility into pricing stability [13][14] - **Customer Commitments**: Four out of five largest customers have purchase orders for all of fiscal 2026, indicating strong demand and pricing stability [14] Competitive Landscape - **HDD vs. SSD**: Approximately 80% of installed storage capacity is hard disk drives (HDD), with HDDs being six times lower in acquisition cost and 3.6 times lower in total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to SSDs. Both HDD and SSD markets are growing [19][20][21] - **Market Share**: Western Digital is focused on customer relationships rather than market share, emphasizing quality and reliability in their products [22][23] Technology and Product Development - **EPMR and HAMR Technologies**: Ultra-SMR technology accounts for 40-45% of nearline shipments, expected to rise to 50% by the end of 2025. The next generation of EPMR is set for qualification in 2026, with HAMR technology ramping in 2027 [24][25][28][30] - **Quality Assurance**: Emphasis on ensuring quality and reliability before ramping up production of new technologies [27][30] Financial Performance - **Revenue Composition**: Cloud business constitutes approximately 90% of total revenue, while client and consumer segments account for about 10%. The latter is expected to grow but at a slower rate than cloud [33] - **Gross Margins**: Current gross margins are in the low 40s, with potential for further improvement driven by stable pricing, cost reductions, and a favorable product mix [37][38][39] - **Debt and Capital Return**: The company has a net debt of $2.6 billion with a target leverage ratio of 1 to 1.5. Plans for capital return include a dividend program and a $2 billion share buyback initiative [48][50] Strategic Outlook - **Long-term Growth**: Western Digital is positioned well for future growth, particularly in the AI and data-centric cloud markets, with strong customer engagements and a focus on technological advancements [32][34][43]