+852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 21 July 2025 | 7:45AM HKT China: Consumer Dashboard 2025Q2: Household income growth slowed amid increased US tariffs (Yang) Andrew Tilton Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chel ...

Group 1 - The 27th China Building Expo (Guangzhou) will open on July 8, organized by the China Foreign Trade Center Group and the China Architectural Decoration Association, covering an area of 300,000 square meters with nearly 2,000 exhibitors and expected to attract over 200,000 domestic and international professional visitors [2] - This year's expo features three main sections: indoor space, doors and windows outdoor, and material intelligence manufacturing, with a new smart lighting exhibition area and the introduction of smart home products, including smart appliances and robots [3] - The expo will host over 70 events discussing opportunities in architectural design and AI, including a high-end residential design trend exhibition for 2025 and a forum on "Building Reconstruction: AI Towards New" featuring experts from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology [4]

Core Insights - The Canton Fair, established in 1957, is a significant biannual event that showcases the internationalization of China's trade [2][3] - The current edition has attracted nearly 43,000 exhibitors and around 250,000 visitors, covering an area of 1.55 million square meters [3][4] Global Reach and Promotion - The fair has expanded its international reach through promotional events in various cities, including Vienna, Budapest, and Amsterdam, as well as in African countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya [5] - The Canton Fair has been instrumental in helping Chinese brands, such as BYD, Huawei, Haier, and Lenovo, gain global recognition and market penetration [6] Opportunities for Businesses - The fair provides a platform for both large and small businesses to network and expand beyond major Chinese cities [8] - It accommodates a diverse range of sectors, with the spring fair focusing on electronics and home appliances, while the autumn fair emphasizes textiles and consumer goods [9] Changing Business Mindset - The participation of big companies aims to enhance international exposure and experience, reflecting a shift in the business mindset of Chinese exhibitors towards more proactive engagement in international trade [11][12] - The rise of Chinese fashion brands and designers illustrates the evolving outlook of Chinese enterprises in the global market [13] Cultural Appeal - The fair is complemented by the cultural attractions of Guangzhou, enhancing the overall experience for visitors [14] Future Prospects - The latest edition of the Canton Fair is expected to be larger and more impactful, aligning with the growing importance of international trading opportunities [15][16]

16 June 2025 | 1:21PM HKT China: Strong retail sales, softer industrial production and investment in May Bottom line: China's May industrial production (IP) and fixed asset investment (FAI) missed market consensus modestly, while retail sales beat meaningfully. IP growth moderated in May on the back of slowing export growth due to increased US tariffs, led by slower output growth in electrical machinery and chemical manufacturing industries. FAI growth declined further, weighed on mainly by slower infrastru ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities analyst Rafe Jadrosich upgraded Whirlpool Corporation from Underperform to Neutral, raising the price forecast from $68 to $94 due to improved North American margin prospects and tariff-related benefits [1]. Group 1: Financial Estimates - The analyst increased 2025 earnings estimates to $8.56 from $8.35 and 2026 EPS estimates to $10.33 from $9.39, benefiting from new appliance-related steel tariffs [1]. - Fiscal year 2027 earnings per share were raised to $10.73 from $9.96 [6]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - Whirlpool is well positioned to benefit from new Section 232 tariffs, which will impose a 50% duty on the steel content of imported home appliances starting June 23, as 80% of its U.S. sales are domestically produced and 96% of its steel is U.S.-sourced [3]. - Competitors relying on imports for over half of their U.S. sales, particularly from China and Korea, will face increased costs, reducing their previous cost advantage [4]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - The tariffs could force competitors to raise wholesale appliance prices by 3–5%, or approximately $15–$20 per unit, potentially giving Whirlpool a competitive edge [5]. - A price increase of $15–$20 on half of Whirlpool's North America volume could boost EBIT margins by 150–200 basis points and raise profits by 20–30% [5]. - With appliance manufacturing being a low-margin business, rivals are expected to pass on costs, allowing Whirlpool to gain market share or expand margins [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE: WHR) stock, which has fluctuated around the $100 level since the last bullish article was published nearly a year ago, with the current trading price being noted [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - The stock was trading around $102 per share in the previous analysis, and it has since experienced volatility, trading both above and below the $100 mark [1]. - The investment strategy highlighted focuses on strategic buying opportunities, particularly in dividend and value stocks, which has led to a strong reputation on platforms like Tipranks.com and Seeking Alpha [1].

Accessible version 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Xiaomi Corporation 2025 Investor Day: AI spotlight; "Human + Car + Home" ecosystem materializing Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 66.00 HKD | Price: 53.20 HKD AI biggest highlight, driving long-term synergy Xiaomi hosted 2025 Investor Day on 3 June, and mgmt. highlighted core strategies across AI, premiumization, smart retail, and overseas expansion. Xiaomi aims to spend one-third of its CNY30bn+ R&D on AI in 2025; of which, 90%+ is for LLM/ADAS. Mgmt. highlighte ...

Group 1 - The policy of trade-in for old products has significantly boosted the consumer market for home appliances and automobiles in 2023 [1] - As of June 2, 2023, Shenzhen's trade-in policy has led to the sale of 9.486 million units of home appliances and digital products, generating a total sales revenue of 17.49 billion yuan [1] - Specifically, 7.493 million units of home appliances were sold, amounting to 12.07 billion yuan, while 1.992 million units of digital products, including mobile phones, generated sales of 5.43 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The trade-in policy has also positively impacted the automotive sector, resulting in the sale of 60,400 vehicles with a total sales value of 15 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - The ongoing 618 shopping festival in China is showing strong performance, positively impacting Alibaba's stock, which rose nearly 4% [1] - Preliminary data indicates a significant increase in sales during the 618 period, with Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall Group reporting a 283% rise in government-subsidized categories compared to the previous year's Singles' Day [4] - JD.com also reported impressive sales, with a 380% year-over-year surge in home appliances and electronics within the first hour of its 618 campaign [5] Company Performance - Alibaba's stock performance is benefiting from the lively shopping activity during the 618 festival, contrasting with the flat performance of the S&P 500 [1] - The company's internal data suggests a robust shopping environment, which is likely to enhance its market position [1][4] Industry Trends - The 618 shopping festival, initiated by JD.com, has become a significant event for various Chinese retailers, including Alibaba, offering extensive deals and discounts [2] - The Chinese government's subsidy program is playing a crucial role in boosting sales, particularly in home appliances and related products, indicating a trend that could benefit multiple online retailers [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed Core Insights - China's economy appears stable with a focus on boosting demand and improving consumer sentiment, despite challenges in the property market [1][4] - The property market remains fragile but stable, with government policies aimed at stimulating demand rather than supply [5][10] - Exporters are shifting production to Southeast Asia and Mexico due to high costs in the US, leading to potential price increases for Chinese products [1][5] - Industrial technology is advancing, with Chinese companies catching up to Western suppliers in automation and AI [1][28] - Datacenter construction is expected to significantly increase in 2025 due to AI adoption, with a potential doubling in compute buildout [1][6] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in China is stable, with minimal panic regarding tariffs and a notable focus on demand-side stimulus [4][8] - Consumer sentiment is increasingly important, with government efforts to boost consumption following trade negotiations [4][10] Property Market - The property market is stabilized by demand-side policies, but improvement is fading, and the government is focused on fixing this part of the economy [5][11] - Transaction volumes in the secondary housing market are performing better than new housing, with a notable divergence between luxury and ordinary homes [7][10] Export and Production Shifts - Exporters are moving production to existing hubs in Southeast Asia and Mexico, avoiding the US due to high costs [5][18] - Chinese appliance companies are successfully penetrating overseas markets, particularly in the EU and North America [13][19] Industrial Technology - The discrete automation market is showing signs of recovery, with Chinese companies developing competitive technologies in software and AI [28][39] - Shenzhen Inovance is gaining market share in industrial automation, focusing on customized solutions and responsiveness to customer demands [30][32] Datacenter and AI Adoption - AI adoption is accelerating, with significant investments expected in datacenter infrastructure by 2025 [6][39] - Companies are taking a pragmatic approach to AI integration, looking for validated use cases before large-scale implementation [6][39] Company-Specific Insights - Midea's domestic sales are expected to see single-digit growth, driven by a replacement cycle rather than new demand [13][21] - Haier is experiencing growth in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, while maintaining a focus on the US and EU [19][24] - Hisense is benefiting from subsidy policies, leading to revenue growth in both domestic and international markets [24][25]