Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for KE Holdings with a target price of USD 26.30, indicating a potential upside of approximately 30% from the current share price of USD 20.23 [5][7][23]. Core Insights - KE Holdings reported a 42% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 6% non-GAAP net profit margin in 1Q25, which exceeded management's guidance but was largely in line with market expectations. The management's guidance for a stable recovery in profitability is viewed positively [2][12]. - The company anticipates a flat secondary home Gross Transaction Value (GTV) and a 10% year-on-year growth in primary home GTV for 2Q25, which is considered conservative. The guidance for a 6.8% non-GAAP operating profit margin in 2025 suggests improved visibility for full-year earnings [2][12]. - Management expressed confidence in maintaining stable commission rates despite concerns about potential cuts in various cities, attributing any potential downside risks more to market competition than regulatory changes [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, KE Holdings' total net revenue was RMB 23.328 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 4.821 billion, reflecting a 42% increase in revenue year-on-year [22]. - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 1.393 billion in 1Q25, which was stable compared to the previous quarter [22]. - The report projects total net revenues to grow from RMB 93.457 billion in 2024 to RMB 116.586 billion by 2027, with a consistent increase in operating profit over the same period [13]. Business Segments - The existing home transaction services segment generated RMB 6.870 billion in 1Q25, while new home transaction services contributed RMB 8.075 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 64% [22]. - Home renovation and furnishing services showed a significant improvement in contribution margin, increasing to 32.6% in 1Q25 from 29.8% in 4Q24, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4][22]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price based on an unchanged target PE multiple of 23x, applied to the average 2025-26 non-GAAP EPS estimate of RMB 8.44 [5][23]. - The projected PE ratios for the upcoming years are 23.0 for 2024, 19.2 for 2025, and further declining to 13.2 by 2027, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings growth [8][15].

Core Viewpoint - KE Holdings Inc. ("Beike") reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, highlighting a significant increase in net revenues and gross transaction value (GTV), despite a decrease in net income and adjusted net income year-over-year. The company emphasizes its commitment to technology-driven and human-centric services in the evolving real estate market in China [1][4][23]. Financial Highlights for Q4 and FY 2024 - In Q4 2024, net income was RMB577 million (US$79 million), a decrease of 13.9% year-over-year, while adjusted net income was RMB1,344 million (US$184 million), down 21.6% year-over-year [3][17]. - The total GTV for 2024 was RMB3,349.4 billion (US$458.9 billion), an increase of 6.6% year-over-year, with net revenues reaching RMB93.5 billion (US$12.8 billion), a 20.2% increase year-over-year [5][23]. - The number of active stores on the platform grew to nearly 49,700, an 18.3% increase year-over-year, and the number of active agents surpassed 445,000, a 12.1% increase year-over-year [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - GTV of existing home transactions in 2024 was RMB2,246.5 billion (US$307.8 billion), up 10.8% year-over-year, while GTV of new home transactions decreased by 3.3% to RMB970.0 billion (US$132.9 billion) [5][25]. - Net revenues from home renovation and furnishing services increased by 36.1% to RMB14.8 billion (US$2.0 billion) in 2024, and net revenues from home rental services surged by 135.0% to RMB14.3 billion (US$2.0 billion) [23][25]. Cost and Profitability - Total cost of revenues increased by 25.8% to RMB70.5 billion (US$9.7 billion) in 2024, with gross profit rising by 5.6% to RMB22.9 billion (US$3.1 billion) [24][26]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 24.6%, down from 27.9% in 2023, primarily due to increased fixed compensation costs [26]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased shares totaling approximately US$716 million in 2024, representing about 3.9% of total issued shares at the end of 2023 [8]. - A final cash dividend of US$0.12 per ordinary share, or US$0.36 per ADS, was declared, amounting to approximately US$0.4 billion [37][38]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance its technology-driven and human-centric approach, leveraging AI to better understand customer needs and improve service efficiency [4][6].