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India 10-year bond sees second weekly fall on Fed letdown
The Economic Timesยท 2025-09-19 12:05
Core Viewpoint - The Indian government bonds have experienced a decline for the second consecutive week, influenced by hawkish commentary from the U.S. Federal Reserve and ongoing concerns regarding debt supply, which have negatively impacted investor appetite [7]. Group 1: Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year benchmark ended at 6.4885%, slightly down from 6.5139% on Thursday, marking a marginal increase over the week after a rise of 2 basis points last week [1][7]. - Yields move inversely to prices, indicating a complex relationship between bond prices and interest rates [2][7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled the possibility of an additional 50 basis points of cuts in 2025, although Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a "meeting-by-meeting situation" regarding future rate cuts [2][3][7]. - The current rate cut cycle may not be extensive, as suggested by Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank [3][7]. Group 3: Local Market Dynamics - There are ongoing concerns in the local market regarding constant supply from the central and state governments, which has contributed to rising yields and altered demand-supply dynamics [5][7]. - Traders are anticipating the borrowing calendar from the central government for the second half of the fiscal year, expected to be published before the end of September [6][7]. - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has advised states to diversify their borrowing across different tenures instead of concentrating on long-term bonds and to communicate their fundraising plans more clearly [6][7]. Group 4: Overnight Index Swaps - India's overnight index swaps (OIS) rates showed mixed results, with the one-year OIS rate at 5.45%, the two-year OIS rate at 5.42%, and the liquid five-year OIS rate ending at 5.71% [7].