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High Expenses & Lower Fee Income Likely to Hurt HBAN's Q4 Earnings
ZACKS· 2026-01-20 18:36
Core Viewpoint - Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN) is expected to report an increase in fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 revenues and earnings year over year, with key factors including improvements in net interest income and fee income, although rising non-interest expenses may pose challenges [1][9]. Recent Developments - HBAN received shareholder approval for its $7.4 billion all-stock acquisition of Cadence Bank, anticipated to close on February 1, 2026, which will expand its presence in the southern United States [3]. - The company completed a $1.9 billion all-stock merger with Veritex Holdings in October 2025, enhancing its footprint in Texas markets and raising its 2025 net interest income growth outlook to 10%-11% from 8%-9% [4]. Q4 Performance Factors - Loans & NII: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to support HBAN's net interest income, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.61 billion, reflecting an 8.6% increase from the previous quarter [6]. - Average total earnings assets are estimated at $203.1 billion, indicating a 5.4% rise from the prior quarter [7]. - Non-Interest Income: Mortgage banking income is projected at $35.5 million, a 17.4% decline from the previous quarter due to stagnant refinancing and origination activity [8]. - Capital markets and advisory fees are expected to rise to $104.3 million, a 10.9% sequential increase, while total non-interest income is estimated at $601.8 million, indicating a 4.2% decline from the prior quarter [11][12]. Expense and Asset Quality - Higher expenses are anticipated due to increased costs from data processing, marketing, and branch expansions, despite some efficiency initiatives [13]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-accrual loans is $896 million, a 10.9% increase from the prior quarter, indicating potential asset quality concerns [15]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for HBAN's fourth-quarter earnings is 39 cents per share, suggesting a 14.7% rise year over year, with revenues projected at $2.2 billion, reflecting a 12.3% year-over-year increase [17]. 2025 Outlook - Average loans are expected to grow by 8% standalone and 9%-9.5% including Veritex, while average deposits are projected to increase by 5.5% standalone and 6.5%-7% including Veritex [18][19]. - Net interest income is anticipated to rise by 10%-11% year over year, with adjusted non-interest income expected to grow by 7% [19].