Hamilton Insurance (HG) could be a solid choice for investors given the company's remarkably improving earnings outlook. While the stock has been a strong performer lately, this trend might continue since analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for the company.The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this provider of insurance and reinsurance services, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research ...

Core Insights - SelectQuote (SLQT) reported a quarterly loss of $0.26 per share, slightly better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.27, and consistent with the loss of $0.26 per share from the previous year, resulting in an earnings surprise of +3.70% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $328.81 million for the quarter ended September 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.07% and showing an increase from $292.26 million year-over-year [2] - SelectQuote shares have declined approximately 42.7% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 15.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.19 on revenues of $520 million, while for the current fiscal year, the estimate is -$0.10 on revenues of $1.71 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for SelectQuote was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Insurance - Multi line industry, to which SelectQuote belongs, is currently ranked in the top 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - The performance of SelectQuote may be influenced by the overall industry outlook, as empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and earnings estimate revisions [5]

Group 1 - Hamilton Insurance's stock closed at $23.53, reflecting a -3.61% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.63% [1] - Over the past month, Hamilton Insurance shares have appreciated by 3.61%, outperforming the Finance sector's loss of 0.83% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.92% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings report for Hamilton Insurance is scheduled for November 4, 2025, with expected earnings of $0.71 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 4.05% [2] - The consensus estimate projects revenue of $612.29 million, reflecting a 19.39% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Group 3 - For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $0 per share and revenue of $2.76 billion, showing changes of 0% and +18.28% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Hamilton Insurance suggest evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [3] Group 4 - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimate changes, provides a rating system that can help investors capitalize on stock price performance [4] - The Zacks Rank spans from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), with 1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] Group 5 - Hamilton Insurance is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 7.26, which is lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 9.56, suggesting it is trading at a discount [6] - The Insurance - Multi line industry is part of the Finance sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 68, placing it in the top 28% of over 250 industries [6]

Acquisition Highlights - Sompo Holdings will acquire Aspen Insurance Holdings for $3.48 billion (approximately ¥519.5 billion, equivalent to 1.3x PBR)[7, 30] - The acquisition is expected to be completed between January and June 2026, subject to regulatory approval[7] - The acquisition is projected to reduce operating expenses by $200 million by FY2030[9, 12] Strategic Significance - The acquisition expands Sompo's overseas insurance/reinsurance business, making it a top 10 global reinsurance company[7] - Aspen Capital Markets (ACM) will expand fee income with low capital requirements, reducing profit volatility and improving balance sheet flexibility[7, 31, 54] - Gross written premiums in insurance are expected to increase by approximately 20%, from $12.0 billion to $14.7 billion[49] - Gross written premiums in reinsurance are expected to increase by approximately 40%, from $4.5 billion to $6.4 billion[49] Financial Impact - The acquisition is expected to improve the likelihood of achieving mid-term targets for FY2026, including ROE and EPS growth[8, 14] - Adjusted consolidated ROE is expected to increase by approximately 1 percentage point due to the acquisition[15] - Adjusted EPS growth is projected to increase, with a CAGR of +18%[6, 15] - ACM adds approximately $170 million in fee income in 2024[54]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Hamilton Insurance despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Hamilton Insurance is expected to report earnings of $1.01 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 15.8%, while revenues are projected at $591.68 million, a slight increase of 0.6% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.99% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, suggesting no recent differing analyst views [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Hamilton Insurance had an earnings surprise of +1,075.00%, beating the expected earnings of $0.04 per share with actual earnings of $0.47 [14]. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [15]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, Hamilton Insurance does not currently appear to be a strong candidate for exceeding earnings expectations, and investors should consider other factors before making investment decisions [18].

Company Performance - Hamilton Insurance's stock decreased by 1.02% to $21.33, underperforming the S&P 500's slight gain of 0.02% on the same day [1] - Over the past month, Hamilton Insurance shares have increased by 0.51%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 gained 4.24% and 4.93%, respectively [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to announce earnings on August 6, 2025, with a forecasted EPS of $1.01, reflecting a 15.83% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - Quarterly revenue is projected to be $591.68 million, which is a 0.64% increase compared to the previous year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are estimated at $3.23 per share and revenue at $2.6 billion, indicating a decrease of 11.99% in earnings and an increase of 11.45% in revenue from the prior year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest a favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Hamilton Insurance has a Forward P/E ratio of 6.67, which is lower than the industry average of 10.14, indicating that the company is trading at a discount compared to its peers [6] - The Insurance - Multi line industry is currently ranked 164 out of over 250 industries, placing it in the bottom 34% [6] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates stocks based on estimate changes, currently ranks Hamilton Insurance at 3 (Hold) [5] - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has risen by 2.81% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hamilton Insurance's stock performance has shown a positive change recently, but it has underperformed compared to the broader market and the finance sector over the past month [1][2]. Company Performance - The stock closed at $21.61, reflecting a +2.76% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1]. - Over the last month, Hamilton Insurance shares experienced a loss of 0.76%, while the Finance sector gained 4.07% and the S&P 500 gained 5.88% [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to release its earnings on August 6, 2025, with a forecasted EPS of $1.01, indicating a 15.83% decrease from the same quarter last year [3]. - Revenue is projected to be $591.68 million, which is a 0.64% increase from the prior-year quarter [3]. - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $3.23 per share and revenue of $2.6 billion, reflecting changes of -11.99% and +11.45% respectively from last year [4]. Analyst Sentiment - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Hamilton Insurance are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends [5]. - Upward revisions in estimates indicate analysts' positive outlook on the company's operations and profit generation capabilities [5]. Stock Valuation - Hamilton Insurance is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 6.51, which is lower than the industry average of 10.03, suggesting it is trading at a discount [8]. - The Insurance - Multi line industry is part of the Finance sector and has a Zacks Industry Rank of 161, placing it in the bottom 35% of over 250 industries [8].

Group 1 - Hamilton Insurance closed at $21.39, marking a +2.3% move from the prior day, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.38% [1] - The stock has risen by 2.45% in the past month, lagging behind the Finance sector's gain of 2.88% and the S&P 500's gain of 6.6% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings release is forecasted to report an EPS of $0.92, indicating a 23.33% decrease from the same quarter last year, with quarterly revenue expected at $578.72 million, down 1.57% year-over-year [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are predicted at $3.15 per share and revenue at $2.59 billion, reflecting changes of -14.17% and +10.96% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Hamilton Insurance indicate changing near-term business trends, with positive alterations suggesting analyst optimism regarding business and profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows Hamilton Insurance currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [6] Group 4 - Hamilton Insurance has a Forward P/E ratio of 6.64, which is lower than the industry average of 9.92, indicating it is trading at a discount [7] - The Insurance - Multi line industry is part of the Finance sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 92, placing it in the top 38% of all industries [7]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Hamilton Insurance due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Hamilton Insurance is expected to report earnings of $0.04 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decrease of 97.1% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $586.52 million, indicating an 11% decline from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.98% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive [6][7]. - Hamilton Insurance's current Zacks Rank is 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Hamilton Insurance had an expected EPS of $0.76 but delivered only $0.32, resulting in a surprise of -57.89% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Industry Comparison - Another player in the insurance sector, Lemonade, is expected to report a loss of $0.94 per share, a year-over-year change of -40.3%, with revenues projected at $143.93 million, up 20.9% [17]. - Lemonade has an Earnings ESP of 3.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [18].