Acquisition Highlights - Sompo Holdings will acquire Aspen Insurance Holdings for $3.48 billion (approximately ¥519.5 billion, equivalent to 1.3x PBR)[7, 30] - The acquisition is expected to be completed between January and June 2026, subject to regulatory approval[7] - The acquisition is projected to reduce operating expenses by $200 million by FY2030[9, 12] Strategic Significance - The acquisition expands Sompo's overseas insurance/reinsurance business, making it a top 10 global reinsurance company[7] - Aspen Capital Markets (ACM) will expand fee income with low capital requirements, reducing profit volatility and improving balance sheet flexibility[7, 31, 54] - Gross written premiums in insurance are expected to increase by approximately 20%, from $12.0 billion to $14.7 billion[49] - Gross written premiums in reinsurance are expected to increase by approximately 40%, from $4.5 billion to $6.4 billion[49] Financial Impact - The acquisition is expected to improve the likelihood of achieving mid-term targets for FY2026, including ROE and EPS growth[8, 14] - Adjusted consolidated ROE is expected to increase by approximately 1 percentage point due to the acquisition[15] - Adjusted EPS growth is projected to increase, with a CAGR of +18%[6, 15] - ACM adds approximately $170 million in fee income in 2024[54]

Company Performance - Hamilton Insurance's stock decreased by 1.02% to $21.33, underperforming the S&P 500's slight gain of 0.02% on the same day [1] - Over the past month, Hamilton Insurance shares have increased by 0.51%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 gained 4.24% and 4.93%, respectively [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to announce earnings on August 6, 2025, with a forecasted EPS of $1.01, reflecting a 15.83% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - Quarterly revenue is projected to be $591.68 million, which is a 0.64% increase compared to the previous year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are estimated at $3.23 per share and revenue at $2.6 billion, indicating a decrease of 11.99% in earnings and an increase of 11.45% in revenue from the prior year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest a favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Hamilton Insurance has a Forward P/E ratio of 6.67, which is lower than the industry average of 10.14, indicating that the company is trading at a discount compared to its peers [6] - The Insurance - Multi line industry is currently ranked 164 out of over 250 industries, placing it in the bottom 34% [6] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates stocks based on estimate changes, currently ranks Hamilton Insurance at 3 (Hold) [5] - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has risen by 2.81% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hamilton Insurance's stock performance has shown a positive change recently, but it has underperformed compared to the broader market and the finance sector over the past month [1][2]. Company Performance - The stock closed at $21.61, reflecting a +2.76% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1]. - Over the last month, Hamilton Insurance shares experienced a loss of 0.76%, while the Finance sector gained 4.07% and the S&P 500 gained 5.88% [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to release its earnings on August 6, 2025, with a forecasted EPS of $1.01, indicating a 15.83% decrease from the same quarter last year [3]. - Revenue is projected to be $591.68 million, which is a 0.64% increase from the prior-year quarter [3]. - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $3.23 per share and revenue of $2.6 billion, reflecting changes of -11.99% and +11.45% respectively from last year [4]. Analyst Sentiment - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Hamilton Insurance are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends [5]. - Upward revisions in estimates indicate analysts' positive outlook on the company's operations and profit generation capabilities [5]. Stock Valuation - Hamilton Insurance is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 6.51, which is lower than the industry average of 10.03, suggesting it is trading at a discount [8]. - The Insurance - Multi line industry is part of the Finance sector and has a Zacks Industry Rank of 161, placing it in the bottom 35% of over 250 industries [8].

Group 1 - Hamilton Insurance closed at $21.39, marking a +2.3% move from the prior day, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.38% [1] - The stock has risen by 2.45% in the past month, lagging behind the Finance sector's gain of 2.88% and the S&P 500's gain of 6.6% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings release is forecasted to report an EPS of $0.92, indicating a 23.33% decrease from the same quarter last year, with quarterly revenue expected at $578.72 million, down 1.57% year-over-year [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are predicted at $3.15 per share and revenue at $2.59 billion, reflecting changes of -14.17% and +10.96% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Hamilton Insurance indicate changing near-term business trends, with positive alterations suggesting analyst optimism regarding business and profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows Hamilton Insurance currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [6] Group 4 - Hamilton Insurance has a Forward P/E ratio of 6.64, which is lower than the industry average of 9.92, indicating it is trading at a discount [7] - The Insurance - Multi line industry is part of the Finance sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 92, placing it in the top 38% of all industries [7]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Hamilton Insurance due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Hamilton Insurance is expected to report earnings of $0.04 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decrease of 97.1% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $586.52 million, indicating an 11% decline from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.98% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive [6][7]. - Hamilton Insurance's current Zacks Rank is 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Hamilton Insurance had an expected EPS of $0.76 but delivered only $0.32, resulting in a surprise of -57.89% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Industry Comparison - Another player in the insurance sector, Lemonade, is expected to report a loss of $0.94 per share, a year-over-year change of -40.3%, with revenues projected at $143.93 million, up 20.9% [17]. - Lemonade has an Earnings ESP of 3.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [18].