Key missing holdings make one choice better than the other as we head into the new year.For most investors interested in growth opportunities, their mind goes to tech stocks. Given how the tech sector has performed over the last decade or so, it's easy to see why this is the case. Overall, it has outperformed all of the other major sectors of the U.S. economy.Hitting it big on an individual tech stock can get you life-changing money, but it doesn't take that to make good money from the tech sector. Many tec ...

Group 1 - The Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM) and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) track the same index and have approximately $450 billion in assets under management, representing about 40% of the market [1] - The Sunday Investor focuses exclusively on U.S. Equity ETFs and has developed a proprietary ETF Rankings system that evaluates nearly 1,000 ETFs based on various factors [1] - The ETF Rankings system provides individual factor scores covering costs, liquidity, risk, size, value, dividends, growth, quality, momentum, and sentiment, resulting in a composite score from 1-10 [1]

The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF ( QQQ ) hit a new high recently, and it's prompted me to come back to an article I wrote five months ago, which I was planning to return to next month when we hit the six-month mark. However, theI manage portfolios and write about the world. Long signal, short noise. Macro strategist and investment advisor from Southern California. You can also find me on YouTube and Substack under my name; my weekly newsletter is called The Macro Obsession.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a benefici ...

Core Insights - The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) has recently reached a new high, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1]. Group 1 - The article references a previous analysis written five months ago, suggesting a continuous evaluation of the ETF's performance [1]. - The author manages portfolios and emphasizes a macro strategy focused on long-term signals rather than short-term noise [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the common investor misperception regarding the significance of an ETF's expense ratio, emphasizing that it should not be viewed solely as a cost but rather in the context of value received for that cost [1][2]. Group 1: Expense Ratio Insights - The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is reducing its expense ratio from 0.20% to 0.18%, which represents a 10% decrease in the cost of holding the investment for large shareholders [3][4]. - The long-standing expense ratio of 0.20% for QQQ can be attributed to its dominant market position and lack of urgency from the issuer, as there has not been significant asset withdrawal in protest [5]. - Investors often overlook the importance of factors beyond cost, such as the level of options activity associated with QQQ, which enhances its attractiveness despite potentially higher expense ratios [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Considerations - The article suggests that focusing solely on expense ratios can lead to poor investment decisions, as more money is often lost chasing past performance than by investing in well-constructed ETFs with higher fees that align with investment objectives [7].

Group 1 - The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is highlighted as a popular growth ETF with an Assets Under Management (AUM) of approximately $387 billion, indicating its status as a core investment choice for many investors [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in identifying high-growth investment opportunities [1] - The authors have a strong background in equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization, with experience in model validation and regulatory finance [1] Group 2 - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, focusing on macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings [1] - The collaboration between the authors aims to deliver high-quality, data-driven insights for investors seeking to outperform the market [1]

Core Insights - The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is highlighted as a popular growth ETF with an Assets Under Management (AUM) of approximately $387 billion, indicating strong investor confidence in this vehicle [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - QQQ is recognized as a go-to investment option for growth-focused investors, reflecting its established reputation in the market [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, with a focus on equity valuation and market trends [1]. - Previous experience includes a role as Vice President at Barclays, leading teams in model validation and stress testing, showcasing a deep expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis [1]. - The analyst collaborates with a research partner to produce high-quality, data-driven investment insights, emphasizing a blend of rigorous risk management and long-term value creation [1].

Economic Indicators - U.S. housing starts decreased by 8.5% month-over-month to an annual rate of 1.307 million units in August, missing market estimates of 1.37 million [5] - Building permits also fell by 3.7% to an annualized rate of 1.312 million in August [5] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.57% to 46,018.32, while the S&P 500 fell 0.097% to 6,600.35 and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.33% to 22,261.33 [6][7] - Futures for major indices were higher, with Dow Jones up 0.75%, S&P 500 up 0.89%, Nasdaq 100 up 1.06%, and Russell 2000 up 1.50% [2] Company Earnings - General Mills Inc. reported fiscal 2026 first-quarter results slightly above Wall Street expectations [4] - Manchester United PLC shares fell over 6% after reporting mixed fourth-quarter financial results [4] - Darden Restaurants Inc. rose 1.03% in premarket trading ahead of its earnings report, with analysts estimating earnings of $2.00 per share on revenue of $3.04 billion [18] - FactSet Research Systems Inc. was up 1.15% as analysts expect earnings of $4.13 per share on revenue of $593.45 million [18] - FedEx Corp. was up 0.12% ahead of its earnings report, with estimates of $3.62 per share on revenue of $21.67 billion [18] Market Sentiment and Projections - Analysts suggest that the S&P 500 could see substantial growth in the second year of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, with historical returns averaging over 16% [8][10] - The first year of the current rate-cutting cycle has already yielded a return of over 17%, surpassing the historical first-year average of 9.6% [10] - The Federal Reserve's projections indicate a modest decline in the federal funds rate to 3.4% by the end of 2026, suggesting a restrictive policy environment [13]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's second year of rate cuts, initiated in September 2024, historically correlates with significant gains for the S&P 500, averaging over 16% returns in the second year following initial cuts [1][4] - The S&P 500 achieved a strong return of over 17% in the first year of the current rate-cutting cycle, surpassing the historical average of 9.6% for year one [2][4] Economic Environment - Robust returns for the S&P 500 are contingent on the U.S. economy avoiding a recession, as historical data shows declines during rate-cutting cycles coinciding with recessions [2][6] - Sustained economic growth is deemed essential for continued upward momentum in stock prices, supported by stable interest rates, cooling inflation, fiscal stimulus, and investment in artificial intelligence [7] Market Performance - Historical analysis indicates that the average gain during the second year of rate cuts is 16.4%, with a median return of 14.4% [4] - The S&P 500 index has advanced 12.47% year-to-date, 17.48% over the past year, and 98.84% over the last five years [10] Potential Challenges - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with potential headwinds including deficit spending affecting long-term rates, a stalled job market raising recession fears, legal challenges to tariffs, and geopolitical risks [8] - Despite uncertainties, the consensus suggests that markets favor rate cuts that are seen as a luxury rather than an emergency, positioning the current backdrop as favorable for equities if recession risks remain low [9]

Group 1 - Three blockchain and cryptocurrency-linked ETFs have surged into the market's top decile, indicating a potential breakout rally [1][3] - The momentum percentile rankings assess an asset's relative strength by evaluating price movement patterns and volatility against sector peers [2] - A significant week-on-week momentum gain suggests these ETFs are outperforming most sector peers, often preceding sharp rallies or intense speculative interest [5] Group 2 - The Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ) saw its momentum score increase from 88.69 to 92.16, reflecting renewed buying demand and optimism around blockchain technology [7] - BITQ has gained 34.76% year-to-date and 92.88% over the past year, maintaining a strong price trend across all timeframes [7] - The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP) experienced a momentum score rise from 89.89 to 93.45, benefiting from improving sentiment in the digital asset space [8] - DAPP is up 37.91% year-to-date and 92.51% over the year, also showing a strong price trend [8] - The Bitwise Web3 ETF (BWEB) saw a momentum increase from 89.22 to 90.34, indicating growing interest in Web3 investments [8] - BWEB has advanced by 40.21% year-to-date and 78.63% over the year, maintaining a strong price trend [8]