Core Insights - The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) is expected to report fourth-quarter and 2025 results on January 13, with anticipated year-over-year increases in revenues and earnings [1][9]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, BK's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by increased fee revenues and net interest income (NII), along with a provision benefit [2]. - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $1.97 per share, reflecting a 14.5% increase from the previous year [3]. - The 2025 earnings estimate is $7.40 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 22.7% [4]. Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for total investment services fees is $2.61 billion, suggesting a 7.1% increase from the previous year [5]. - Financing-related fees are estimated at $56 million, indicating a 5.7% year-over-year rise [5]. - Total fees and other revenues are projected at $3.85 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase from the prior year [7]. Net Interest Income (NII) - The consensus estimate for NII is $1.27 billion, indicating a 6.5% year-over-year rise, supported by robust loan growth and stable funding costs despite recent interest rate cuts [10]. - Management expects fourth-quarter 2025 NII to remain flat sequentially, with full-year NII projected to rise 12% year-over-year [10]. Expense Outlook - Overall expenses are expected to increase due to inflationary pressures and technology upgrades, with fourth-quarter non-interest expenses estimated at $3.34 billion, suggesting a marginal year-over-year decline [11]. - For 2025, expenses are expected to rise 3% from $12.5 billion in 2024, driven by higher revenue-related expenses and continued investments [12]. Earnings Surprise Potential - BNY Mellon has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average beat of 9.1% over the last four quarters [3]. - The Earnings ESP for BNY Mellon is +1.25%, indicating a high likelihood of beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate [13]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [14].

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 9% year-over-year to $5.0 billion[5] - Expenses increased by 4% year-over-year to $3.2 billion[5] - Pre-tax margin increased by 3%-pts year-over-year to 37%[5] - EPS increased by 27% year-over-year[3] - ROTCE increased by 3.2%-pts year-over-year to 27.8%[5] Capital Allocation - Returned $1.2 billion to common shareholders, including $346 million in dividends and $895 million in share repurchases[5] - Declared a 13% increase in the quarterly common stock dividend in 3Q25[5] Business Segments - Securities Services total revenue increased by 10% year-over-year to $2.474 billion[20] - Market and Wealth Services total revenue increased by 13% year-over-year to $1.742 billion[24] - Investment and Wealth Management total revenue decreased by 2% year-over-year to $801 million[28] Capital and Liquidity - Tier 1 leverage ratio decreased by 17 bps quarter-over-quarter to 6.1%[12] - CET1 ratio remained flat quarter-over-quarter at 11.5%[12]