Vi e w p o i n t | 15 Dec 2025 02:02:09 ET │ 12 pages Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) 2026E Shipment at ~5.5mn Units (Over +30% YoY) CITI'S TAKE We hosted a business update call with Horizon Robotics on Dec 15, with key takeaways set forth below. (1) Mgmt. expect 2026E shipment at around 5.5mn units (more than +30% YoY growth), with low-end ADAS chip <2mn units, mid-end ADAS chip 3mn+ units (BYD & Geely to both contribute 1mn units respectively), and high-end HSD solution 300-400k units. (2) The company intends ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Horizon Robotics is "Buy" with a high risk designation [7]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics expects significant growth in shipments for 2026, projecting high-end shipments between 300,000 to 500,000 units, mid-end shipments around 3 million units, and low-end shipments approximately 2 million units. Key contributors to high-end shipments are anticipated to be Chery and Chang'an, accounting for 50% of the total [1][2]. - The company maintains its guidance to ship 4 million units of automotive-grade processing hardware in 2025, with mid-to-high end products making up 50% of this total [2]. - Horizon Robotics has secured design wins for its high-end ADAS solution from Chery and Chang'an, with mass production of the first models expected in the second half of 2025 [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) for various products is detailed as follows: HSD (J6P) at US$700, HSD (dual J6M) at US$400, mid-end ADAS at US$90-100, and low-end ADAS at US$20-30 [4]. - The gross margin for the J6P chip is around 50%, while the software component has a gross margin close to 100% [5]. - Horizon Robotics has established collaborations with overseas tier-1 suppliers such as Bosch, Continental, and Denso to enhance its competitiveness in international markets [5]. - The company aims to increase its market share with BYD's God's Eye C solution in 2026 and plans to explore additional solutions [9]. - Horizon Robotics believes its HSD offers a competitive edge over Huawei's ADAS solution due to its high value for money, making it suitable for mass-market models [10]. - The deployment of HSD is expected to facilitate the development of Robotaxi systems, with a partnership announced with Hello Inc. in September 2025 [11]. - The valuation of Horizon Robotics is based on projected strong growth in the ADAS market from 2025 to 2030, with a target price set at HK$12.30, reflecting a potential return of 49.1% [12].

China Semiconductors Horizon Robotics Rating Outperform Price Target Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D. +852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com 9660.HK 15.00 HKD HK$12 HK$10 HK$8 HK$6 HK$4 11/24 02/25 05/25 08/25 11/25 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 9660.HK ASIAX Francis Ma +852 2123 2626 francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui +852 2123 2694 zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Horizon Robotics: The first vehicle equipped with HSD L2++ hardware and software solution open for order The first vehicle equipped with the Horizon Ur ...