JD.com (JD.O) Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: JD.com - **Ticker**: JD.O - **Market Cap**: US$45.741 billion - **Current Price**: US$28.70 - **Target Price**: US$37.00 (down from US$44.00) [7] Key Financial Estimates - **4Q25 Revenue**: Estimated at Rmb349 billion (+0.57% YoY), below Bloomberg consensus of Rmb354.5 billion (+2.2%) [3] - **4Q25 Adjusted Net Profit**: Forecasted to decline 83% YoY to Rmb1.9 billion (0.54% margin), compared to consensus of Rmb1.25 billion (0.35% margin) [3] - **2025 Revenue and Net Profit Estimates**: Revised down by -1.7%/-7.0%, -4.5%/-16.5%, and -5.1%/-12.1% for 2025-2027 [2] - **Profit Assumptions for 4Q25/FY2025**: Lowered to Rmb1.9 billion/Rmb27.8 billion due to lower revenues and gross profit margin (GPM) [6][46] Sales Performance - **Electronics Product Sales**: Expected to decline 12.6% YoY to Rmb152.2 billion in 4Q25, partially offset by 10% growth in general merchandise sales [3][45] - **Direct Sales Growth**: Revised to -4% YoY to Rmb269.7 billion [3][46] - **General Merchandise Sales**: Expected to grow by 10% YoY to Rmb117.5 billion [3] Market Conditions - **Home Appliance Sales**: Declined by 14.6% and 19.4% YoY in October and November 2025, respectively, with expectations of further decline in December [14] - **Trade-in Program**: Extended into 2026, providing subsidies of 15% on select home appliances and digital products, but with limited overall benefit expected for JD.com due to high base effects [11][12][13] Strategic Initiatives - **JD Fashion Instant Delivery**: Significant growth with over 1,000 merchants onboarded, focusing on apparel and beauty categories [32][33] - **Joybuy Launch in Europe**: Scheduled for Q1 2026, aiming to replicate JD.com's successful delivery model in China [34][35] - **JD AI Shopping App**: Launched as a personal shopping assistant powered by JD's large language model [37] Earnings Summary - **2023 Net Profit**: Rmb35.2 billion, with diluted EPS of Rmb22.205 [6] - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb47.827 billion, with diluted EPS of Rmb31.094 [6] - **2025E Net Profit**: Rmb27.846 billion, with diluted EPS of Rmb18.660 [6] - **2026E Net Profit**: Rmb32.166 billion, with diluted EPS of Rmb21.751 [6] Conclusion - JD.com is facing significant challenges in the home appliance sector, leading to lowered revenue and profit estimates for 4Q25 and FY2025. Despite strategic initiatives and a maintained Buy rating, the company is expected to experience limited catalysts in the near term, with share price pressure anticipated [5][44].