Geopolitics added a constant background hum. Tensions in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and fragile US-China relations – namely on the trade front – regularly unsettled markets.Inflation became the second recurring fault line. Headline pressures eased, but progress was uneven, particularly in services. Every upside surprise reopened the debate about how restrictive policy really needed to be, and each time the result looked familiar: a firmer Dollar and a reminder that the disinflation process was not ...

Corporate News - JPMorgan has significantly raised its price target for Ocentrus Energy, identified as Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU), from $164 to $275, indicating a positive outlook for the energy company [3][9] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is facing challenges, with Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC), and Ripple (XRP) experiencing price declines amid ongoing market weakness [4][9] - Ethereum is set for a Fusaka upgrade on December 3, which may influence future market dynamics [4] Foreign Exchange Market - The Australian Dollar (AUD) has declined against the US Dollar (USD), with the AUD/USD exchange rate falling to 0.6552 on October 31, 2025, down 0.04% from the previous session and 0.93% over the past month, driven by decreasing odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut [5][9] - The Japanese Yen (JPY) has maintained gains due to stronger Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, although it has struggled to attract sustained buying interest [6][9]

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Global Markets Strategy Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) Market - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Core Views and Arguments - **Bearish Outlook on USD**: J.P. Morgan maintains a bearish view on the US dollar, citing stagflationary trends in US data, declining real yields, and concerns regarding Federal Reserve independence as key drivers [4][12][38] - **Market Conditions**: Despite recent dollar price action being disappointing, the underlying conditions for USD weakness remain intact, with expectations for a dovish Fed stance that could further weaken the dollar [9][10][12] - **FX Trading Themes**: - Preference for bearish USD against cyclical currencies, particularly mid- to low-yielders [4][12] - Carry-efficient USD shorts, particularly against currencies like NOK, AUD, and MXN [4][12][28] - Fiscal differentiation in developed markets (DM), favoring currencies with fiscal surpluses [4][28] Key Currency Insights - **G10 Currency Targets**: - EUR/USD target at 1.22, USD/JPY at 142, and USD/CAD downgraded to 1.34 [4][12] - Emerging Markets (EM) targets include USD/BRL at 5.60 and USD/MXN at 18.50 [4][12] - **Regional Preferences**: - Overweight positions in EUR, Scandis, and Antipodeans in developed markets [4][12] - In EM, overweight positions in MYR, THB, HUF, ZAR, TRY, and ILS [4][12] Important but Overlooked Content - **Stagflationary Data Trends**: The US is experiencing a stagflationary evolution, with employment growth slowing while inflation remains firm, leading to a deterioration in real policy yields [14][15] - **Fed's Upcoming Decisions**: The upcoming FOMC meeting is critical, with potential implications for USD based on the Fed's sensitivity to labor market conditions and inflation risks [18][38] - **Legal and Political Risks**: Ongoing legal issues surrounding Fed independence and tariff policies could impact the dollar's performance, with significant implications for market sentiment [39][40] Conclusion J.P. Morgan's analysis indicates a cautious but strategic approach to currency trading, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic indicators and central bank policies in shaping FX market dynamics. The firm advocates for a bearish stance on the USD while identifying specific currency pairs and regions that present potential opportunities for investors.