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高盛:泡泡玛特股价波动源于放量策略,需求并没减弱,名创优品IP孵化顺利,估值仍具吸引力
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-12 07:27
Group 1: Industry Overview - The retail and toy industry in China is experiencing a significant strategic differentiation, marking a critical shift from high-frequency data-driven approaches to a focus on fundamentals [1] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted target prices for various companies based on their growth prospects, with Pop Mart's target price set at HKD 350, Miniso raised to USD 29/HKD 56, and Blokus lowered to HKD 93 [1] Group 2: Pop Mart - Pop Mart's stock price volatility in August reflects market concerns over slowing high-frequency data, particularly in the secondary market [2] - The initial launch of the Mini Labubu series saw a significant production volume of approximately 1 million units, supporting revenue growth despite limited price premiums [3] - The secondary market price premiums for the Macaron/Have a Seat series ranged from 40%-60% to single digits, while the Big into Energy series generally saw single-digit premiums [3][7] Group 3: Blokus - Blokus accelerated its new product launches in August, introducing over 50 SKUs, more than double the number from July [8] - The new products primarily focus on existing IPs, with notable sales growth in adult product lines and specific new releases like the Naruto product achieving approximately 1,500 units sold in August [8] Group 4: Miniso - Miniso's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, leading to a valuation recovery to a high double-digit P/E ratio for 2025, with a focus on its proprietary IP initiatives [9] - The Yoyo product launch is projected to generate sales of RMB 40 million this year, and the Kumaru blind box product has received positive market feedback [9] Group 5: Overseas Market Insights - In the overseas market, U.S. labor data showed weakness, but companies reported resilient consumer demand, indicating a positive trend for IP-related firms [12] - Miniso's U.S. credit card sales grew by 97%, slightly down from 98% in Q2, while Top Toy's first store in Tokyo achieved sales of JPY 11 million (approximately RMB 500,000) on its opening day [12]