Core Insights - TotalEnergies has revised its production strategy for the Venus project in Namibia, lowering peak output expectations from 200,000 barrels per day to 150,000 barrels per day, focusing on sustaining production over a longer period rather than rapid early gains [1][3] - The Venus field, discovered in February 2022, is one of Africa's largest oil discoveries, with an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of light crude and 4.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, potentially increasing Namibia's GDP by up to 20% by 2030 [3][4] - Negotiations between TotalEnergies and the Namibian government are ongoing, with concerns about fiscal terms and the need to avoid unfavorable contracts similar to those seen in Guyana [4][10] Production and Economic Considerations - The project is technically challenging, located 3,000 meters underwater and 300 kilometers from shore, complicating gas production and reinjection strategies [2][5] - TotalEnergies has indicated a breakeven price of $20 per barrel, but this figure is viewed as a negotiation tactic rather than a realistic assessment, with comparable projects typically around $35 per barrel [5][6] - The exit of Shell from the region due to poor reservoir quality and high gas content highlights the risks associated with the Venus project [6] Strategic Context - Namibia is positioning itself as a new energy hub, with plans for a $10 billion green hydrogen project alongside oil developments, indicating a diversification strategy [7][8] - TotalEnergies' operations in Africa account for half of its production and the largest share of its exploration budget, with a focus on LNG and offshore oil [8] - Geopolitical factors, including China's growing investment in Namibia, introduce strategic risks for TotalEnergies, as delays in negotiations could allow competitors to gain a foothold [9][10] Future Outlook - The success of the Venus project hinges on overcoming technical challenges, negotiating favorable fiscal terms, and navigating geopolitical dynamics [10] - If successful, Venus could significantly enhance TotalEnergies' cash flow and redefine Namibia's economic landscape, but failure to reach agreements could stall progress [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; Medium - term: Bearish allocation for oil prices [3] Core View - China's crude oil inventory reached a record high this year, with on - land crude oil inventory reaching 1.1 billion barrels. The large - scale restocking in Q2 was mainly due to high imports, likely a result of increased US sanctions on Russia at the beginning of the year and geopolitical uncertainties after Trump took office. This restocking behavior has advanced demand, and future restocking is likely to slow down [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - NYMEX July - delivery light crude oil futures rose 71 cents to $65.29 per barrel, an increase of 1.10%; ICE August - delivery Brent crude oil futures rose 56 cents to $67.04 per barrel, an increase of 0.86%; SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.16% at 479 yuan per barrel [1] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the US plan on the Iran nuclear deal was unacceptable, and Iran will send its plan to the US via Oman. The next round of nuclear negotiations with the US is expected to be held in Oman on Sunday [1] - Iraq set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil for July to Europe at a $1.30 - per - barrel discount to Brent crude; to North and South America at a $1.05 - per - barrel discount to Argus sour crude; and to Asia at a $0.30 - per - barrel premium to the Oman/Dubai crude oil average [1] - CBOT soybean oil futures rebounded, with the benchmark contract up 1.3%, rebounding from a one - and - a - half - month low. This was mainly due to eased Sino - US trade tensions, stronger international crude oil futures, and expectations of the US EPA's biofuel blending policy. The US Senate is debating a new tax bill including fiscal support for the biofuel industry, and the market is positive about subsidy continuation, boosting soybean oil demand expectations. The US EPA is expected to release biofuel blending regulations in mid - June [1] Investment Logic - China's recent crude oil inventory reached a historical and annual high, with on - land inventory at 1.1 billion barrels. The large - scale restocking since Q2 was due to high imports, likely a response to geopolitical uncertainties. This behavior has advanced demand, and future restocking is likely to slow down [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; Medium - term: Bearish allocation for oil prices [3]