Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian Natural achieved record quarterly corporate production of approximately 1.62 million BOEs per day, an increase of approximately 257,000 BOEs per day or up 19% from Q3 2024 levels [4][14] - Adjusted funds flow for Q3 2025 was approximately CAD 3.9 billion, with adjusted net earnings of CAD 1.8 billion [14][16] - Returns to shareholders in the quarter were CAD 1.5 billion, including CAD 1.2 billion in dividends and CAD 300 million in share repurchases [14][15] - The company reported a strong balance sheet with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.9 times and liquidity of over CAD 4.3 billion [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil sands mining and upgrading production averaged 581,136 bbl per day, an increase of approximately 83,500 bbl per day or 17% from Q3 2024 levels [7] - Thermal in situ operations averaged 274,752 bbl per day, slightly up from Q3 2024 levels, with operating costs averaging CAD 10.35 per barrel, a decrease of 2% [8] - Primary heavy crude oil production averaged 87,705 bbl per day, an increase of 14% from Q3 2024 levels, with operating costs averaging CAD 16.46 per barrel, a decrease of 12% [9] - North American light crude oil production averaged 180,100 bbl per day, an increase of 69% from Q3 2024 levels [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American natural gas production averaged approximately 2.66 BCF for the quarter, an increase of 30% from Q3 2024 levels [11] - Operating costs for North American natural gas averaged CAD 1.14 per MCF, a decrease of 7% from Q3 2024 levels [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on continuous improvement and operational efficiency, with a commitment to driving execution of growth opportunities and increasing shareholder value [12][16] - Canadian Natural has increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years, reflecting a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [15] - The company is exploring egress opportunities to enhance market access for its crude, particularly in light of new pipeline projects [28][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the current operational setup, indicating that all assets are performing as expected [48] - There is a cautious but positive outlook regarding engagement with the federal government on carbon competitiveness and pathways for future growth [39][40] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for Canadian heavy crude, supported by egress opportunities and stable pricing [55] Other Important Information - The company closed an asset swap with Shell Canada, enhancing its operational capabilities and production capacity [5][6] - The board approved a quarterly dividend of CAD 58.75 per common share, payable on January 6, 2026 [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential operational benefits from the Albion Oil Sands asset swap - Management highlighted the potential for equipment utilization and cost savings due to the proximity of the two mining assets [20] Question: Opportunities for egress capacity to Midcontinent or Gulf Coast refiners - Management is open to participating in projects that enhance egress capacity, which is crucial for maintaining strong pricing differentials [28] Question: Need for further consolidation in Western Canada gas - Management noted that while consolidation is occurring, the focus should be on increasing egress opportunities to unlock the basin's potential [33] Question: Implications of T block decommissioning on capital expenditures - Management indicated that capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to increase modestly, with tax recoveries playing a significant role [44] Question: Operational setup and asset performance as the year ends - Management confirmed that all assets are performing as expected, with no significant issues to report [48] Question: Thoughts on M&A activity and capital allocation strategy - Management stated that while they look at M&A opportunities, there are no significant changes to their capital allocation strategy [54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian Natural achieved record quarterly corporate production of approximately 1.62 million BOEs per day, a significant increase of approximately 257,000 BOEs per day, or up 19% from Q3 2024 levels [4][14] - Adjusted funds flow for Q3 2025 was approximately CAD 3.9 billion, with adjusted net earnings of CAD 1.8 billion [14][16] - Returns to shareholders in the quarter totaled CAD 1.5 billion, including CAD 1.2 billion in dividends and CAD 300 million in share repurchases [14][15] - The company increased its 2025 corporate production guidance range to 1,560,000-1,580,000 BOEs per day [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil sands mining and upgrading production averaged 581,136 barrels per day of SCO, an increase of approximately 83,500 barrels per day, or 17% from Q3 2024 levels [7] - Thermal in situ operations averaged 274,752 barrels per day, showing slight growth from Q3 2024 [8] - Primary heavy crude oil production averaged 87,705 barrels per day, an increase of 14% from Q3 2024 levels [9] - North American light crude oil and natural gas production averaged 180,100 barrels per day, a 69% increase from Q3 2024 [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American natural gas production averaged approximately 2.66 BCF for the quarter, a 30% increase from Q3 2024 levels [11] - Operating costs for North American natural gas averaged CAD 1.14 per MCF, a decrease of 7% from Q3 2024 [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on continuous improvement and operational efficiency to drive value creation for shareholders [12][16] - Canadian Natural is exploring egress opportunities to enhance market access for its crude, particularly in light of new pipeline projects [28][40] - The company is committed to capital allocation towards high-return projects without reliance on any single commodity [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the operational setup into the end of the year, with all assets performing as expected [48] - There is a positive outlook on discussions with the federal government regarding carbon competitiveness and egress opportunities [39][40] - The company anticipates maintaining light-heavy differentials in the range of CAD 10-13 per barrel, supported by strong demand and egress capacity [55] Other Important Information - The company has a strong balance sheet with a quarter-end debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.9 times and liquidity of over CAD 4.3 billion [15][16] - Canadian Natural has increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years, with a CAGR of 21% [14][15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential operational benefits from the Albion Oil Sands asset swap - Management highlighted the potential for equipment utilization and cost savings due to the proximity of the two mining assets [20] Question: Opportunities for egress capacity to Midcontinent or Gulf Coast refiners - Management is open to reviewing opportunities for egress and sees positive implications for Canadian crude pricing [28] Question: Need for further consolidation in Western Canada gas - Management noted that while consolidation is occurring, the focus should be on increasing egress opportunities for gas [33] Question: Production growth outlook from Palliser and Endeavor assets - Management confirmed that both areas will be part of the capital allocation strategy for next year [34] Question: Progress on working with the federal government on pathways - Management reported more positive engagement with the new federal government, emphasizing the need for detailed discussions on carbon competitiveness [39][40] Question: Implications of potential acceleration of T block decommissioning on capital expenditures - Management indicated that capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to increase modestly, with tax recoveries considered [44] Question: Operational performance as the year ends - Management stated that all assets are performing as expected, with strong optimization and utilization [48] Question: Scheduled maintenance for 2026 - Management confirmed that Horizon will have a significant turnaround in Q3 2026, along with routine maintenance for thermal facilities [50] Question: Updated thoughts on M&A and capital allocation strategy - Management indicated no significant changes in M&A strategy, focusing on accretive opportunities close to core areas [54]

Core Insights - TotalEnergies has revised its production strategy for the Venus project in Namibia, lowering peak output expectations from 200,000 barrels per day to 150,000 barrels per day, focusing on sustaining production over a longer period rather than rapid early gains [1][3] - The Venus field, discovered in February 2022, is one of Africa's largest oil discoveries, with an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of light crude and 4.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, potentially increasing Namibia's GDP by up to 20% by 2030 [3][4] - Negotiations between TotalEnergies and the Namibian government are ongoing, with concerns about fiscal terms and the need to avoid unfavorable contracts similar to those seen in Guyana [4][10] Production and Economic Considerations - The project is technically challenging, located 3,000 meters underwater and 300 kilometers from shore, complicating gas production and reinjection strategies [2][5] - TotalEnergies has indicated a breakeven price of $20 per barrel, but this figure is viewed as a negotiation tactic rather than a realistic assessment, with comparable projects typically around $35 per barrel [5][6] - The exit of Shell from the region due to poor reservoir quality and high gas content highlights the risks associated with the Venus project [6] Strategic Context - Namibia is positioning itself as a new energy hub, with plans for a $10 billion green hydrogen project alongside oil developments, indicating a diversification strategy [7][8] - TotalEnergies' operations in Africa account for half of its production and the largest share of its exploration budget, with a focus on LNG and offshore oil [8] - Geopolitical factors, including China's growing investment in Namibia, introduce strategic risks for TotalEnergies, as delays in negotiations could allow competitors to gain a foothold [9][10] Future Outlook - The success of the Venus project hinges on overcoming technical challenges, negotiating favorable fiscal terms, and navigating geopolitical dynamics [10] - If successful, Venus could significantly enhance TotalEnergies' cash flow and redefine Namibia's economic landscape, but failure to reach agreements could stall progress [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; Medium - term: Bearish allocation for oil prices [3] Core View - China's crude oil inventory reached a record high this year, with on - land crude oil inventory reaching 1.1 billion barrels. The large - scale restocking in Q2 was mainly due to high imports, likely a result of increased US sanctions on Russia at the beginning of the year and geopolitical uncertainties after Trump took office. This restocking behavior has advanced demand, and future restocking is likely to slow down [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - NYMEX July - delivery light crude oil futures rose 71 cents to $65.29 per barrel, an increase of 1.10%; ICE August - delivery Brent crude oil futures rose 56 cents to $67.04 per barrel, an increase of 0.86%; SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.16% at 479 yuan per barrel [1] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the US plan on the Iran nuclear deal was unacceptable, and Iran will send its plan to the US via Oman. The next round of nuclear negotiations with the US is expected to be held in Oman on Sunday [1] - Iraq set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil for July to Europe at a $1.30 - per - barrel discount to Brent crude; to North and South America at a $1.05 - per - barrel discount to Argus sour crude; and to Asia at a $0.30 - per - barrel premium to the Oman/Dubai crude oil average [1] - CBOT soybean oil futures rebounded, with the benchmark contract up 1.3%, rebounding from a one - and - a - half - month low. This was mainly due to eased Sino - US trade tensions, stronger international crude oil futures, and expectations of the US EPA's biofuel blending policy. The US Senate is debating a new tax bill including fiscal support for the biofuel industry, and the market is positive about subsidy continuation, boosting soybean oil demand expectations. The US EPA is expected to release biofuel blending regulations in mid - June [1] Investment Logic - China's recent crude oil inventory reached a historical and annual high, with on - land inventory at 1.1 billion barrels. The large - scale restocking since Q2 was due to high imports, likely a response to geopolitical uncertainties. This behavior has advanced demand, and future restocking is likely to slow down [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; Medium - term: Bearish allocation for oil prices [3]