Report Summary Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Core View - Tensions in the Middle East show no sign of easing. The IAEA's announcement that Iran violated the nuclear non - proliferation treaty adds pressure on Iran. The probability of a US - Iran nuclear deal is low unless Iran makes major concessions. However, there is great uncertainty between geopolitical escalation and supply impact. Without threats to supply or key shipping routes, it's difficult for oil prices to have a trend - like increase [2] Market News and Key Data - **Oil Futures Prices**: On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the July - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price fell 11 cents to $68.04 per barrel, a 0.16% decline; the August - delivery Brent crude oil futures price on the London market dropped 41 cents to $69.36 per barrel, a 0.59% decline. The SC crude oil main contract rose 0.67% to 494 yuan per barrel [1] - **IAEA Resolution**: The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution stating that Iran violated nuclear non - proliferation obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years. Iran condemned it as a "political" decision and plans counter - measures [1] - **G7 on Russian Oil Price Cap**: Most G7 countries plan to lower the price cap on Russian oil even if Trump decides to withdraw. The current $60 per - barrel cap is almost ineffective due to falling global oil prices [1] - **Israel's Military Consideration**: Israel is considering military action against Iran in the coming days. The US may play a logistical role and share intelligence. Trump said there's a possibility of large - scale conflict in the Middle East [1] - **Singapore Fuel Inventory**: As of the week ending June 11, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 1.133 million barrels to 23.714 million barrels (a 7 - week high), light distillates inventory increased 232,000 barrels to 13.334 million barrels (a 3 - week high), and middle distillates inventory rose 1.475 million barrels to 10.715 million barrels (a 13 - week high) [1] - **US Jobless Claims**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained stable at a high level. As of the week ending June 7, it was 248,000 after seasonal adjustment, against a market expectation of 240,000 [1]

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 20 cents to settle at $62.69 per barrel, a gain of 0.32%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 13 cents to settle at $65.54 per barrel, a gain of 0.20%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 0.87% at 465 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump said he had a 2 - hour call with Putin, and "Russia - Ukraine will immediately start negotiations for a cease - fire and more importantly, to end the war". Putin said the call was rich and candid, and Russia advocates a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis [1] - Goldman Sachs is cautious about the oil price outlook. It maintains its forecast for Brent/WTI crude oil prices at $60/$56 for the rest of 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, lower than forward prices. It has raised its forecast for Iranian crude supply to 3.6 million barrels per day from the second half of 2025 to 2026 [1] - The EU Commission's trade commissioner will propose to G7 finance ministers to lower the current $60 per - barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil. EU officials suggest reducing it to $50 per barrel [1] - Trump's tax - cut bill, worth trillions of dollars, got approval from a key House committee, but faced obstacles earlier due to demands from conservative Republicans [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Global refinery profits have significantly recovered recently, with gasoline and fuel oil crack spreads rebounding and diesel crack spreads also rising. Reasons include supply disruptions at refineries, strong demand in Africa and Latin America, reduced exports from some major countries, and refinery closures in the US and Europe. In the short - term, crack spreads will remain firm [2] Group 3: Strategy - The short - term outlook for oil prices is neutral, and a medium - term short position is recommended [3]