Core Viewpoint - Overall sentiment surrounding Expand Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:EXE) remains positive amid a risky macro environment [1] Group 1: Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets - As of March 9, 2026, approximately 88% of analysts remain bullish, with a consensus price target of $133.00, implying a 22.43% upside [2] - Benchmark raised its price target for Expand Energy from $112 to $124, citing stronger natural gas realizations and a 24% organic increase in reserves as key factors [3] - Mark Lear of Piper Sandler reduced his price target from $137 to $136 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, attributing the change to increased geopolitical tensions with Iran [4] Group 2: Company Performance and Market Context - Expand Energy Corporation produces and develops liquids, natural gas, and oil throughout the Haynesville, Northeast, and Southwest Appalachia, based in Oklahoma City [5] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, analysts view the immediate impact on U.S. operators as minimal, suggesting potential upside from higher commodity prices and downside from market uncertainty [5]

Summary of the Conference Call on North America Midstream & Energy Infrastructure Industry Overview - The report focuses on the North American midstream and energy infrastructure sector, particularly in the context of the ongoing Iran conflict and its implications for midstream stocks [1][19]. Key Points and Arguments Market Reactions - Midstream stocks experienced a decline towards the end of trading after President Trump suggested that the Iran conflict could be nearing an end, which contrasts with previous administration indications [1]. - Despite a surge in commodity prices since the conflict began, midstream equities have only increased by 0.5% when excluding the LNG sector, indicating a potential disconnect between commodity prices and midstream stock performance [1]. Natural Gas Sector - Approximately 40% of midstream equities have declined since the onset of the conflict, particularly affecting natural gas companies, which have remained largely flat or down [2]. - DT Midstream (DTM) has seen a slight increase of around 1%, attributed to the announcement of the Midwestern Gas Transmission open season, which could potentially drive a 15-20% increase in EBITDA if sanctioned [2]. G&P and Liquids Sector - Liquids names have not performed significantly better, with TRGP and KNTK showing negative performance despite their high beta to crude prices [3]. - PAA and OKE are the best performers among liquids stocks, each up by 4%. PAA benefits from direct commodity exposure, with every $10/bbl increase in crude resulting in a $40 million EBITDA tailwind if sustained [3]. - EPD has shown a 3% increase, benefiting from LPG export read-through, while TRGP and ET have both posted negative performance [3]. LNG Sector - The LNG sector has seen significant outperformance, particularly with Venture Global (VG) up by 19%. The stock is trading close to a previously updated valuation of $12/share, which anticipated brief downtime for Qatar LNG [4]. - Cheniere LNG has rebounded to summer 2025 levels after underperforming in Q4 2025, despite a more constructive LNG price curve prior to the conflict. LNG also announced a $9 billion buyback, which was positively received [4]. Additional Important Content Valuations and Target Prices - DT Midstream Inc. has a target price of $156, implying a 15.8x EV/EBITDA multiple on 2027 estimates, with a 9.5% discount rate and ~7% cap rate assumed [8]. - Oneok Inc. has a target price of $95, implying a ~10.2x EV/EBITDA on 2027 estimates [10]. - Venture Global Inc. has a target price of $12, based on a 19x EV/EBITDA multiple on 2027 estimates, but carries a high-risk rating due to its dependence on successful project commercialization and exposure to spot prices [12][13]. Risks - Risks to DT Midstream's target price include reduced producer activity and lower power demand [9]. - Oneok faces risks related to synergy execution, reduced producer activity, and weaker ethane recovery economics [11]. - Venture Global's risks include commodity price fluctuations and ongoing arbitration proceedings [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the North American midstream and energy infrastructure sector.

Core Insights - Eni SpA reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 87 cents per American Depository Receipt, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents and improving from 58 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - Total revenues for the quarter reached $24.4 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.4 billion, although down from $25.6 billion a year ago [1] Operational Performance - The strong quarterly results were primarily driven by higher oil and gas production and improved performance in the Refining segment [2] - Eni operates through four business segments: Exploration & Production, Global Gas & LNG Portfolio and Power, Refining and Chemicals, and Enilive and Plenitude [3] Exploration & Production - Total oil and gas production was 1,839 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), a 7% increase from 1,716 MBoe/d in the prior-year quarter [4] - Liquids production was 890 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), up 13% from 786 MBbl/d a year ago, while natural gas production totaled 4,966 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d), compared to 4,862 mmcf/d in the previous year [4] - The average realized price of liquids was $58.40 per barrel, down 15% from $69.02 a year ago, and the realized natural gas price was $6.89 per thousand cubic feet, lower than $7.35 in the year-ago period [5] - The segment reported a pro-forma adjusted EBIT of €2.8 billion, flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 [7] Global Gas & LNG Portfolio and Power - Worldwide natural gas sales in the fourth quarter totaled 13.41 billion cubic meters (bcm), down 12% year over year, primarily due to lower gas volumes sold in Italy [8] - Thermoelectric production totaled 5.76 terawatt-hours (TWh), up 3% from 5.60 TWh in the prior-year quarter [9] - The Global Gas & LNG Portfolio segment reported a pro-forma adjusted EBIT of €135 million, reflecting a 40% decrease from €226 million a year ago, while the Power segment reported a pro-forma adjusted EBIT of €51 million, a 4% decrease from €53 million [10] Refining & Chemicals - Total refinery throughputs were 6.12 million tons (mmtons), compared to 6.04 mmtons in the corresponding period of 2024 [12] - The Refining segment reported a pro-forma adjusted EBIT of €95 million, a 316% improvement from a negative €44 million a year ago, driven by better refining margins and increased volumes [13] - The Chemicals segment reported a pro-forma adjusted negative EBIT of €204 million, an improvement of 17% from a negative €231 million in the previous year [13] Enilive & Plenitude - Total sales managed by Enilive improved 6% year over year to 5.12 mmtons, with bio throughputs increasing to 276 thousand tons from 163 thousand tons [14] - Retail gas sales managed by Plenitude improved 1% year over year to 1.75 bcm, with installed renewable capacity rising to 5.8 GW from 4.1 GW [15] - Enilive's performance was bolstered by strong results from biorefineries in Italy, while Plenitude's results were impacted by weaker performance in its wholesale business [15][16] Financials - As of December 31, 2025, Eni had long-term debt of €20.1 billion and cash and cash equivalents of €8.2 billion, with net cash generated by operating activities at €4.3 billion [17] - Capital expenditure for the quarter totaled €2.62 billion, with full-year gross capex guidance reiterated at €7 billion [18] 2026 Outlook - Eni expects net capex of €5 billion and a gearing ratio between 10% and 15% for the upcoming year [18]

Core Insights - Shell plc reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per ADS of $1.14, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21 due to declining oil prices and unfavorable tax adjustments, despite higher hydrocarbon production [1][11] - The company's revenues for the quarter were $66.7 billion, slightly down from $66.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, and missed consensus estimates by 2% [2] Financial Performance - Shell's cash flow from operations decreased by more than 28% year over year to $9.4 billion, while free cash flow was $4.2 billion compared to $8.7 billion a year ago [12] - The company returned $2.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and spent $6 billion on capital projects during the quarter [12] - As of December 31, 2025, Shell had $30.2 billion in cash and $75.6 billion in debt, with a net debt-to-capitalization ratio of approximately 20.7%, up from 17.7% a year ago [9] Segment Performance - Upstream segment profit was $1.6 billion, down from $1.7 billion a year ago, primarily due to lower prices and a decline in natural gas output [3] - Integrated Gas reported an adjusted income of $1.7 billion, down from $2.2 billion in the same quarter of 2024, affected by adverse tax implications and lower realized prices [6] - Chemicals and Products segment improved to an adjusted loss of $66 million from a loss of $229 million a year ago, attributed to higher refining margins [5] - Renewables and Energy Solutions segment turned around to an adjusted income of $131 million from a loss of $311 million a year ago, driven by trading and optimization contributions [8] Guidance - For the first quarter of 2026, Shell expects upstream volumes of 1,700-1,900 MBOE/d and Integrated Gas production between 920 MBOE/d and 980 MBOE/d [13] - The company anticipates marketing sales volumes of 2,550-2,750 thousand barrels per day and refinery utilization between 90-98% [13] - Total cash capital expenditure for full-year 2026 is projected to be between $20 billion and $22 billion [13]

Core Insights - Shell reported adjusted earnings of $5.4 billion for Q3, down from $6 billion year-over-year but above the consensus estimate of $5.09 billion [1] - Cash flow from operations (CFFO) reached $12.2 billion, exceeding the forecast of $11 billion, although it was lower compared to the previous year due to declining oil prices [2] - The company experienced stronger Q3 results compared to Q2, driven by robust operational performance and increased trading and optimization contributions [2] Production and Trading Performance - Shell's production of liquids and natural gas, along with LNG output and trading volumes, increased from Q2, contributing to the earnings beat [3] - The indicative refining margin rose to $11.60 per barrel in Q3 from $8.90 in Q2, with refinery utilization increasing to 96% from 94% [4] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a $3.5 billion buyback program for the next three months, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of at least $3 billion in buybacks [5]

Company Overview - Kinetik Holdings (NYSE: KNTK) is a significant player in the US oil and gas infrastructure sector, involved in gathering natural gas, liquids, crude oil, and water from production sites, as well as compressing, transporting, processing, and treating these resources [1] Analyst Experience - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology companies such as Google and Nokia [1] - The analyst has researched more than 1000 companies in-depth throughout their investing career [1] Investment Focus - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where they have researched hundreds of different companies [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in covering metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with other industries such as consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

Financial Performance - Equinor reported an adjusted operating income of USD 6.53 billion and an adjusted net income of USD 1.67 billion for Q2 2025, leading to adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.64 [1][8] - The net operating income decreased to USD 5.72 billion from USD 7.66 billion in the same quarter last year, impacted by an impairment of USD 955 million due to regulatory changes [9] - Cash flows from operating activities before taxes and working capital items amounted to USD 9.17 billion for the quarter [10] Production and Operational Highlights - Total equity production reached 2,096 mboe per day, a 2% increase from 2,048 mboe in Q2 2024 [4] - The US onshore assets contributed to a 28% increase in oil and gas production compared to the same period last year [5] - The Johan Castberg field reached production plateau shortly after starting operations, contributing to strong operational performance [14] Strategic Developments - Equinor is progressing its renewable energy portfolio, with financial closure on the Baltyk 2 and 3 offshore wind projects in Poland, totaling EUR 6 billion [16] - The company announced the divestment of the Peregrino field in Brazil for USD 3.5 billion, focusing on the Bacalhau field start-up expected later in 2025 [15] - A long-term gas sales agreement was signed with Centrica for 55 TWh of natural gas per year over ten years, emphasizing the importance of gas supplies from the Norwegian continental shelf [14] Capital Distribution - An ordinary cash dividend of USD 0.37 per share was declared, with an expected total capital distribution of USD 9 billion for 2025, including a share buy-back program of up to USD 5 billion [17][18] - The third tranche of the share buy-back program, valued at up to USD 1.265 billion, is set to commence on July 24, 2025 [18]

Core Insights - Coterra Energy is participating in the 2025 J.P. Morgan Energy, Power, Renewables and Mining Conference, highlighting its strategic importance in the energy sector [1] - The company has a unique capital allocation strategy that invests in both liquids and oil as well as natural gas, which is particularly relevant given the current volatility in energy markets [3] Company Overview - Thomas E. Jorden, the CEO, emphasizes the macroeconomic concerns surrounding oil prices, indicating a renewed focus on oil within the industry [4] - Coterra's approach to capital allocation allows it to leverage its strong asset base across different segments of the commodity price spectrum, providing a competitive advantage [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shell plc reported first-quarter 2025 earnings per ADS of $1.84, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54, driven by higher natural gas realizations, although down from $2.38 in the previous year due to lower LNG sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - Shell's revenues for the first quarter were $70.2 billion, a decrease from $74.7 billion in the first quarter of 2024, missing the consensus estimate by 12.2% [2]. - The company repurchased $3.3 billion in shares during the first quarter and plans an additional $3.5 billion in repurchases for the second quarter [2]. - Cash flow from operations was $9.3 billion, down 29.5% year-over-year, with free cash flow of $5.3 billion compared to $9.8 billion a year ago [9]. Segment Performance - **Upstream**: Reported a profit of $2.3 billion, up from $1.9 billion year-over-year, mainly due to higher natural gas prices [2]. - **Integrated Gas**: Adjusted income fell to $2.5 billion from $3.7 billion, impacted by a 2.3% decrease in LNG sales volumes to 16.49 million tons [5]. - **Chemicals and Products**: Adjusted profit dropped 72% to $449 million from $1.6 billion, attributed to unfavorable tax movements [4]. - **Marketing**: Income increased to $900 million from $781 million year-over-year, due to lower operating expenses and higher margins [6]. - **Renewables and Energy Solutions**: Reported an adjusted loss of $42 million, down from a profit of $163 million, primarily due to asset disposals [7]. Production and Pricing - Worldwide realized liquids prices averaged $71.49 per barrel, down 6.6% year-over-year, while natural gas prices increased by 21.3% [3]. - Upstream volumes averaged 1,855 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day, a slight decrease of 0.9% from the previous year [3]. - Liquids production rose by 0.3% to 1,335 thousand barrels per day, while natural gas output fell by 3.7% to 3,020 million standard cubic feet per day [3]. Guidance - For the second quarter of 2025, Shell expects upstream volumes between 1,560-1,760 MBOE/d and Integrated Gas production between 890 MBOE/d and 950 MBOE/d [10].

Core Viewpoint - BP is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.56 per share, a decline of 42.3% year-over-year, with revenues forecasted at $57.16 billion, reflecting a 14.4% increase compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 3.9% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Revenue and Income Projections - Analysts estimate 'Total revenues and other income - Sales and other operating revenues' at $47.84 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 2.1% [5] - 'Total revenues and other income - Interest and Other Income' is projected to be $391.82 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 2.8% [5] Production Metrics - 'Total revenues and other income - Earnings from associates - after interest and tax' is expected to reach $567.19 million, a significant increase of 90.3% from the previous year [6] - 'Production (net of royalties) - Oil production & operations - Natural gas' is estimated at 2,223.25 Mcf/D, down from 2,364 Mcf/D year-over-year [6] - 'Production (net of royalties) - Oil production & operations - Liquids' is forecasted at 1,077.04 million barrels per day, compared to 1,056 million barrels per day in the same quarter last year [7] - Average realizations for liquids are expected to be $66.76 per barrel, down from $71.24 per barrel in the same quarter last year [7] Regional Production Estimates - 'Production (net of royalties) - Oil production & operations - Liquids - US' is projected at 488.01 million barrels per day, up from 459 million barrels per day year-over-year [8] - 'Production (net of royalties) - Oil production & operations - Liquids - Europe' is expected to be 154.35 million barrels per day, compared to 136 million barrels per day in the same quarter last year [9] - 'Production (net of royalties) - Oil production & operations - Liquids - Rest of World' is forecasted at 441.70 million barrels per day, down from 461 million barrels per day year-over-year [10] - 'Production (net of royalties) - Oil production & operations - Natural gas - US' is estimated at 1,603.74 Mcf/D, down from 1,742 Mcf/D year-over-year [10] - 'Production (net of royalties) - Oil production & operations - Natural gas - Europe' is projected at 264.43 Mcf/D, down from 279 Mcf/D year-over-year [11] - 'Production (net of royalties) - Oil production & operations - Natural gas - Rest of World' is expected to be 347.55 Mcf/D, slightly up from 343 Mcf/D year-over-year [12] Stock Performance - Over the past month, BP shares have declined by 13.8%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has decreased by 4.3% [12]