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How to Approach Harley-Davidson Stock After Q4 Earnings Release?
ZACKS· 2026-02-13 16:46
Core Insights - Harley-Davidson reported a loss of $2.44 per share in Q4 2025, a significant increase from a loss of 93 cents per share in the same quarter last year, with consolidated revenues of $496 million, down 28% year-over-year [1][9] Financial Performance - The company experienced a decline in gross margins, with HDMC's gross margin falling to 24.2% in 2025 from 28% in 2024, impacted by tariffs costing $67 million in 2025 [3] - Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) operating income is projected to drop to $45-$60 million in 2026, down from $490 million in 2025, due to lower volumes and reduced dealer inventory [6][10] Market Conditions - Global retail sales fell by 12% in 2025, with North America down 13% and EMEA down 11%, attributed to weak consumer confidence, high interest rates, and inflation concerns [4] - The company faces challenges in the EV market, with a lack of consumer incentives and a less supportive regulatory environment expected to hinder the growth of its LiveWire segment, projecting an operating loss of $70-$80 million in 2026 [5][10] Inventory and Sales Dynamics - Dealer inventory imbalances are evident, particularly with Touring models, which are above desired levels despite a 17% year-over-year decline in global dealer motorcycle inventories [7] - The company is implementing targeted promotions to manage inventory but faces risks of pricing pressure and uneven shipments due to macroeconomic uncertainties [8][10]