March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.22 (+1.48%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +4.30 (+1.01%). Sugar prices are moving sharply higher today, with NY sugar posting a 2-week high and London sugar posting a 1-week high.  Today's rally in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) to a 1-week high against the dollar has sparked some short covering in sugar futures.  The stronger real discourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices have retreated ...

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing fluctuations due to varying production levels in major producing countries, with a notable increase in output from India and Brazil leading to bearish market conditions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 (SBH26) increased by +0.26 (+1.77%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 (SWH26) rose by +7.20 (+1.72%) due to a weaker dollar prompting short-covering in sugar futures [1]. - Sugar prices have recently retreated to three-week lows, primarily influenced by increased production in India and Brazil [2]. Group 2: Production Insights - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a significant increase in Indian sugar production, with a +43% year-on-year rise to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the period of October-November [2]. - Brazil's Conab raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, reflecting a bullish outlook for Brazilian sugar output [3]. - The ISMA also revised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, marking an increase of +18.8% year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Global Supply Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up by +1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [5]. - The robust global sugar supply outlook has negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5].

Core Insights - Sugar prices are stabilizing after recent gains, with March NY world sugar 11 down by 0.01 (-0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 remaining unchanged [1] - Positive developments in India regarding ethanol pricing are influencing sugar supply dynamics, as mills may shift focus from sugar production to ethanol [2] - India's food ministry has allowed mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, a reduction from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, due to a quota system introduced after production issues [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, contrasting with a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26, contributing to bearish price trends [4] - Brazil's sugar production outlook is particularly bearish, with Conab raising its estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, and recent data showing a 16.4% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the second half of October [6] Price Trends - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar prices hitting a 5-year low [5] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, indicating a growing supply situation [5] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil has also increased, further contributing to the bearish price environment [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined from recent highs due to a drop in crude oil prices, leading to increased sugar production as mills shift focus from ethanol to sugar [2][4][6] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has revised its forecast to indicate a sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in key countries [4][6] - India's food ministry's decision to limit sugar exports for the 2025/26 season provides some support to sugar prices despite the overall bearish outlook [5] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.04 (-0.27%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -0.30 (-0.07%) [1] - Sugar prices fell back from 3.5-week highs after crude oil prices tumbled more than -2%, prompting long liquidation in sugar futures [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The ISO forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, following a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [4] Group 3: Export Regulations - India's food ministry will allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, following a quota system introduced in 2022/23 [5]

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.05 (+0.35%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +0.60 (+0.14%) on Wednesday [1] - Sugar prices rebounded from early losses due to short covering linked to the strength of the Brazilian real, which reached a 2.5-week high against the dollar [1] Group 2: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September increased by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills rose to 51.17% from 47.73% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through September increased by +0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 million tons [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 is projected to rise by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [2] Group 3: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26 [3] - Covrig Analytics estimated a global sugar surplus of 4.1 million tons for 2025/26 [3] Group 4: Indian Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon and potential for a bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons, following a -17.5% year-on-year decline in 2024/25 [4] - India may export as much as 4 million tons of sugar in 2025/26, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons [5]

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend, with March NY world sugar 11 increasing by +1.72% and December London ICE white sugar 5 rising by +1.17% due to a rally in crude oil prices [1] - The surge in crude oil prices, which rose more than +5% to a two-week high, is expected to lead sugar mills to shift more cane crushing towards ethanol production, potentially reducing sugar supplies [1] Group 2: Sugar Production and Supply Outlook - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar reaching a 4.5-year low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low due to increased sugar output in Brazil, which rose by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons in the second half of September [2] - Brazil's sugar mills increased the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar from 47.73% to 51.17% year-on-year in the same period, contributing to a cumulative sugar output of 33.524 million tons for 2025-26, up +0.8% year-on-year [2] - Datagro projects Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons, while BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26 [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production is expected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for 2025/26, following a significant decline of -17.5% year-on-year to 26.2 million tons in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that could lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus and could lead to increased exports of up to 4 million tons, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing significant declines, with NY sugar down 1.71% and London sugar down 0.95%, influenced by expectations of robust global sugar supplies [1] - Projections indicate a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, with BMI Group estimating a surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) and Covrig Analytics estimating 4.1 MMT for the 2025/25 season [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar reaching a 4.5-year low last month due to increased sugar output in Brazil [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September rose by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.17% from 47.73% [2] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through September increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [2] Group 2: Regional Production Insights - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline of 17.5% to 26.2 MMT in the previous season [3] - The strong monsoon in India, with cumulative rainfall of 937.2 mm (8% above normal), is expected to contribute to a bumper sugar crop [3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - India's potential to divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus, leading to increased export expectations of up to 4 MMT [4] - India, being the world's second-largest sugar producer, is likely to export more sugar than previously anticipated due to the surplus [4]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices are mixed, with NY sugar up by 0.25% and London sugar down by 0.27% as they consolidate recent losses [1] - NY sugar fell to a 3-week low and London sugar dropped to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, influenced by expectations of robust global sugar supplies [2] - Over the past seven months, NY sugar reached a 4.5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar output in Brazil [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, with cumulative 2025-26 output rising by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a decline of 17.5% year-on-year in 2024/25 [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery from early losses, influenced by a weaker dollar and short covering in futures markets [2] - The global sugar supply outlook remains robust, with projected surpluses impacting price levels [2][4] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.25 (+1.60%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +3.30 (+0.74%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 3-week low earlier in the day, and London sugar hit a 4.25-year nearest-futures low [2] Supply Dynamics - BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimates a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region fell by -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT through mid-September [3] India’s Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for sugar crop production [4] Export and Ethanol Production Factors - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus [5] - Indian sugar mills are expected to export up to 4 MMT of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have been declining, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, primarily due to increased sugar output in Brazil and favorable weather conditions in India [2][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down by 0.49 (-3.04%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 fell by 6.40 (-1.42%) [1] - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar posting a 4.5-year nearest-futures low last month [2] - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is bearish for prices, with BMI Group projecting a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26 [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons (MT) [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [2] - Cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [2] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Outlook - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports, exceeding earlier expectations [5]