March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed up +0.05 (+0.35%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +0.60 (+0.14%). Sugar prices shook off early losses and turned higher on Wednesday as short covering emerged due to strength in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL).  The real rallied to a 2.5-week high against the dollar on Wednesday, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices have been under pressure in recent weeks and fell to 4.75 ...

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend, with March NY world sugar 11 increasing by +1.72% and December London ICE white sugar 5 rising by +1.17% due to a rally in crude oil prices [1] - The surge in crude oil prices, which rose more than +5% to a two-week high, is expected to lead sugar mills to shift more cane crushing towards ethanol production, potentially reducing sugar supplies [1] Group 2: Sugar Production and Supply Outlook - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar reaching a 4.5-year low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low due to increased sugar output in Brazil, which rose by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons in the second half of September [2] - Brazil's sugar mills increased the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar from 47.73% to 51.17% year-on-year in the same period, contributing to a cumulative sugar output of 33.524 million tons for 2025-26, up +0.8% year-on-year [2] - Datagro projects Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons, while BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26 [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production is expected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for 2025/26, following a significant decline of -17.5% year-on-year to 26.2 million tons in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that could lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus and could lead to increased exports of up to 4 million tons, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing significant declines, with NY sugar down 1.71% and London sugar down 0.95%, influenced by expectations of robust global sugar supplies [1] - Projections indicate a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, with BMI Group estimating a surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) and Covrig Analytics estimating 4.1 MMT for the 2025/25 season [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar reaching a 4.5-year low last month due to increased sugar output in Brazil [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September rose by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.17% from 47.73% [2] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through September increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [2] Group 2: Regional Production Insights - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline of 17.5% to 26.2 MMT in the previous season [3] - The strong monsoon in India, with cumulative rainfall of 937.2 mm (8% above normal), is expected to contribute to a bumper sugar crop [3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - India's potential to divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus, leading to increased export expectations of up to 4 MMT [4] - India, being the world's second-largest sugar producer, is likely to export more sugar than previously anticipated due to the surplus [4]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices are mixed, with NY sugar up by 0.25% and London sugar down by 0.27% as they consolidate recent losses [1] - NY sugar fell to a 3-week low and London sugar dropped to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, influenced by expectations of robust global sugar supplies [2] - Over the past seven months, NY sugar reached a 4.5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar output in Brazil [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, with cumulative 2025-26 output rising by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a decline of 17.5% year-on-year in 2024/25 [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery from early losses, influenced by a weaker dollar and short covering in futures markets [2] - The global sugar supply outlook remains robust, with projected surpluses impacting price levels [2][4] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.25 (+1.60%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +3.30 (+0.74%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 3-week low earlier in the day, and London sugar hit a 4.25-year nearest-futures low [2] Supply Dynamics - BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimates a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region fell by -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT through mid-September [3] India’s Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for sugar crop production [4] Export and Ethanol Production Factors - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus [5] - Indian sugar mills are expected to export up to 4 MMT of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have been declining, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, primarily due to increased sugar output in Brazil and favorable weather conditions in India [2][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down by 0.49 (-3.04%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 fell by 6.40 (-1.42%) [1] - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar posting a 4.5-year nearest-futures low last month [2] - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is bearish for prices, with BMI Group projecting a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26 [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons (MT) [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [2] - Cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [2] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Outlook - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports, exceeding earlier expectations [5]

Group 1 - Sugar prices settled lower, with NY sugar reaching a 2.5-week low and London sugar hitting a four-year nearest-futures low [2][3] - Weakness in crude oil prices and the Brazilian Real are contributing factors to the decline in sugar prices, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to a 5-month low [2] - Brazil's sugar output is projected to increase, with a reported 15.7% year-on-year rise in sugar production in the first half of September [4] Group 2 - A global sugar surplus of 4.1 million metric tons is anticipated for the 2025/26 season, negatively impacting sugar prices [3] - India's monsoon rains are expected to lead to a bumper sugar crop, with a projected 19% year-on-year increase in sugar production for 2025/26 [5] - The cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 30 was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant increase, with NY sugar reaching a 4-week high and London sugar a 1.5-week high, driven by dollar weakness and stronger global demand, particularly from Pakistan's order of 320,000 MT of sugar for immediate delivery [1] Group 1: Current Market Trends - NY sugar futures rose by +0.15 (+0.94%) and London ICE white sugar increased by +6.50 (+1.41%) [1] - The recent dollar weakness is supportive for sugar prices, alongside indications of stronger global demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A projection by StoneX indicates a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2] - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 MT in the second half of August, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% [3] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports, with expectations of 4 MMT, surpassing earlier estimates of 2 MMT [4] Group 3: Global Production and Consumption Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25, with production expected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT [5] - The USDA projects a record global sugar production of +4.7% year-on-year to 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-on-year [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend, reaching 1.5-week highs due to dollar weakness, which has led to short-covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent projections indicate a shift from a sugar deficit to a surplus in the global market for the 2025/26 season, with a surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) expected [2] Group 1: Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 is up +0.16 (+1.01%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 is up +2.20 (+0.48%) [1] - Last Tuesday, NY sugar reached a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar hit a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [2] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 MMT in the second half of August, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, surpassing earlier expectations [4] Group 3: Global Sugar Deficits and Surpluses - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, an improvement from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [5] - Global sugar production is projected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season, while consumption is expected to increase by +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 MMT [5] - Czarnikow projects a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years, with the USDA forecasting a +4.7% year-on-year increase in global sugar production to a record 189.318 MMT [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices exhibited mixed results, with NY sugar reaching a 1.5-week high while London sugar declined, influenced by crude oil price movements [2] Group 1: Sugar Market Trends - NY sugar futures closed up +0.11 (+0.70%), while December London ICE white sugar futures closed down -1.90 (-0.41%) [1] - The recent rise in crude oil prices has led to short covering in sugar futures, as WTI crude reached a 1.75-month high, potentially shifting sugar production towards ethanol [2] Group 2: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - A significant global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) is projected for the 2025/26 season, reversing a previous deficit of -4.7 MMT in 2024/25 [3] - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar, although cumulative output for 2025-26 is down -1.9% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Regional Production Insights - India is expected to divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may lead to increased exports of sugar, exceeding earlier estimates [5] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although this is an improvement from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [6]