Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices have continued to rise since 2026, reaching record highs, driven by factors such as trade tensions, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical disturbances [1] Price Movements - On January 26, the London spot gold price briefly surpassed $5,100 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 18% [1] - The London spot silver price also exceeded $110 per ounce, showing a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1] Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve is set to hold its first monetary policy meeting of 2026 on January 27-28, with widespread market expectations that it will maintain its current stance [1] - A hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve could lead to increased market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in precious metals, particularly gold, are influenced by geopolitical tensions and monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve [2][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - London spot gold experienced significant volatility, peaking at $4,400 per ounce before closing up 0.13% [2][6]. - COMEX gold futures rebounded by 0.43%, while SHFE gold saw a slight increase of 0.04% [2][6]. - The market is characterized by large fluctuations, with short-term trading strategies being advised due to the upcoming two trading days during the New Year period [2][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that most participants believe further rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation continues to decline as expected [2][6]. - A majority supports a rate cut in December, citing increased risks to employment in recent months [2][6]. - The Fed's survey suggests that respondents expect a net purchase scale of approximately $220 billion within the first 12 months following the initiation of purchases [2][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the worsening situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Saudi airstrikes in Mukalla, Yemen, are contributing to increased risk aversion in the market [2][6]. - These geopolitical developments are likely to impact gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [2][6].