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Why Estee Lauder Could Be Your Next 30% Gain
Benzinga· 2025-07-10 19:25
Core Viewpoint - Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is set for a significant turnaround driven by its "Beauty Reimagined" strategy, despite recent challenges, particularly in Asia, with a forecasted stock price increase of 30% [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve a 4% revenue CAGR through fiscal year 2027 and a margin expansion of 430 basis points to 12%, with EBIT projected to be 10% above consensus [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) have dropped by 80% from their peak due to weakness in Asia, particularly in China and Hainan, but improved demand is anticipated in the upcoming quarters [5]. - The current trading multiple of 2.4x EV/sales indicates a significant discount compared to peers like L'Oréal, suggesting potential for a re-rating of the stock [7]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "Beauty Reimagined" strategy focuses on innovation speed, new channels, and cost efficiency, with a potential 10% reduction in headcount yielding up to $1 billion in savings, which may be reinvested into a 25% increase in brand and consumer marketing [4]. - The company generates $14 billion in revenue across 25 brands, positioning itself as the second-largest player in the $160 billion global prestige beauty market [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions - A more rational market environment during key shopping festivals and stabilizing trends in Hainan are expected to support growth in fiscal year 2026, while Korea's travel retail segment faces ongoing pressure [6].