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海外复盘系列(1):从Applovin崛起之路看AI+广告与潜在对标AI
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-16 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The programmatic advertising market has reached a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars, driven by "data + algorithms" which enhance advertising effectiveness. Major domestic internet companies are increasing investments in AI to achieve higher ROI [4][7] - Applovin has established itself as a leader in the programmatic advertising space by building a comprehensive industry chain and leveraging AI technologies to optimize ad placements and revenue generation [8][9] Summary by Sections Programmatic Advertising Market - The programmatic advertising market is valued at hundreds of billions of dollars, offering precise targeting capabilities compared to traditional advertising methods. The market is expected to grow significantly, with global programmatic ad spending projected to reach $724.84 billion by 2026 [7][35] - The core players in the programmatic advertising ecosystem include advertisers, advertising platforms, and media, with platforms like SSP, DSP, and ADX facilitating optimal ad placements [7][22] Applovin's Rise - Applovin has spent six years (2017-2022) establishing a full industry chain in programmatic advertising, acquiring platforms and games to enhance its data and algorithm capabilities. The company has successfully adapted to changes in privacy policies, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge [8][51] - The company has achieved a market share of 28% in the mobile in-game advertising sector, leading over competitors like Google AdMob and Unity [46] Financial Performance - Applovin's revenue and profit have shown significant growth, with revenues increasing from $2.817 billion in 2022 to $4.709 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 43.4%. Net profits have also improved from a loss of $193 million in 2022 to a profit of $158 million in 2024 [80][81] - The software platform business has become the main revenue driver, with its share increasing to 73% of total revenue by Q4 2024, reflecting a shift in company strategy [92] AI and Advertising - AI is expected to enhance advertising ROI by improving core models such as CTR and CVR. Applovin's AXON 2.0 recommendation engine exemplifies the integration of AI in optimizing ad placements [9][70] - The report highlights the importance of data in driving advertising effectiveness, with a focus on the need for comprehensive data sources to refine algorithms and improve ad targeting [31][77]