证券研究报告 | 2025年7月13日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ➢ 根据马拉松资本《资本回报：穿越资本周期的投资》的观点，资本周期方法的关键是要理解一个行业内配置的资本数 量的变动将如何影响未来回报，换句话说，也就是观察供给方面的变化如何影响公司的竞争态势。传统价值/成长的二 分法存在问题。表现超过市场预期的公司有理由获得更高的估值。相比于分析供给，大部分投资者在分析需求上花更 多时间，但预测需求比预测供给更难。供给变动驱动行业盈利性，股价常常未能预见供给侧的变动。 ➢ 在企业生命周期的不同状态下，行业集中度呈现倒U型分布，先经历了供给侧的优化和高度竞争后的出清，随后集中度 走高形成垄断寡头格局，盈利也经历了类似的对称性分布。分红方面，随着企业从复苏期-增长期-竞争期-成熟期的演 化，股息率中枢不断走高。 ➢ 按照相对回报和绝对回报在历史 8 个阶段回报定位，根据一季报数据筛选得出的优势阶段行业和重点观察行业，按照 开支-盈利水平按照三季报的指引来定位，则可以发现行业集中度呈现 U 型分布。当前处于推荐阶段的二级行业有养殖 业、动物保健Ⅱ、元件、消费电子、通信服务、广告营销、电视广播Ⅱ、 ...

以"AI推动广告新阶段·品牌提升发展高质量"为主题的2025（第21届）中国广告论坛将于7月14日至16日在内 蒙古自治区呼和浩特市举行。本届论坛将聚焦人工智能、文旅品牌与数字经济融合发展，全面展示新时代广 告行业在技术革新与品牌建设方面的蓬勃活力，为推动广告产业高质量发展注入新动能。 论坛首次落地"青城"呼和浩特，依托其独特的北疆文化底蕴与开放进取的营商环境，进一步拓展论坛的地理 与产业边界，展现广告业对区域经济、文旅升级的深度赋能。草原在召唤，辽阔与文明在这里交融；时代在 奔涌，科技与创意在这里汇聚；品牌在生长，思想与远见在这里激荡。 重磅议程，描绘广告行业"新地图" 本次论坛规格高、嘉宾阵容强、内容设置实，呈现出"高位引领+前沿趋势+实践落地"三位一体的格局。 开幕式环节将由中国广告协会会长主持，国家市场监督管理总局、中央广播电视总台总经理室、呼和浩特市 有关领导将出席。此外开幕式环节将发布《品牌发展力团体标准》，呼和浩特也将正式成为首批共建城市之 一，这标志着城市品牌进入评价驱动、标准引领的新阶段。 "广告品牌新语" 主题论坛将邀请多方代表发表主题演讲，深入解析品牌在新时代的战略意义，以及人工智能 对 ...

公司动态 2025年7月，全球广告行业的领军企业WPP迎来历史性的时刻。微软高管Cindy Rose将接替Mark Read， 成为WPP的新任首席执行官（CEO），这也是该公司历史上首次由女性领导。Rose的任命不仅打破了 性别壁垒，也为WPP注入了新的能量，尤其在当前广告行业日益依赖技术和AI的背景下，她的到来无 疑为公司指明了新的方向。 WPP的变革与挑战：接班时机的特殊性 Cindy Rose的到来恰逢WPP在经历一段艰难的时期。2025年上半年，公司在多个方面面临压力，特别是 在客户流失、裁员、企业重组以及办公复工计划的失败等方面。这些挑战已经导致WPP股价大幅下 跌，甚至被竞争对手法国的阳狮集团（Publicis Groupe）超越，失去了全球广告行业最大广告网络的地 位。 此外，WPP在财务方面也面临着严峻考验。今年7月9日，WPP发布了令人震惊的利润预警，预计2025 年收入将下降3%至5%。尽管如此，Read在任期内加大了对AI和数据的投资，收购了数据清理平台 InfoSum，并每年投入3亿英镑用于开发WPP Open等自有AI工具。 性别多样性与领导力的突破 Cindy Rose的任命也具 ...

Group 1 - The company, Huayang Lianzhong, once held a leading position in the industry due to its first-mover advantage in comprehensive marketing services and served as the official communication agency for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, establishing itself as an industry benchmark [1] - The company has experienced continuous losses over the past three years, with a reported operating revenue of 2.031 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 63.07%, and a net profit loss of 547 million yuan, compared to a loss of 684 million yuan in the previous year [4] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 175 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 72.18%, and a net profit loss of approximately 56 million yuan, compared to a loss of 47 million yuan in the same period last year [4] Group 2 - The company has been sued by Beijing Weimeng Chuangke Network Technology Co., Ltd. over an advertising contract dispute, with the amount in question totaling 43.23 million yuan, plus overdue interest of approximately 2.68 million yuan [2] - The company and its actual controller, Su Tong, received a notice of investigation from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, leading to public reprimands and significant fines for both individuals [5] - The company is currently gathering claims from affected investors who bought shares before January 14, 2025, and sold or held them after January 15, 2025, with the final claim conditions to be determined by the court [5]

智通财经APP获悉，英国广告巨头WPP(WPP.US)周四宣布，任命董事会成员辛迪·罗斯(Cindy Rose)为新 任首席执行官。WPP方面表示，自2019年起担任董事会成员的罗斯将于9月1日接替即将离任的首席执 行官马克·里德(其离职时间比预期提前了四个月)。 而就在一天前，WPP宣布下调2025年业绩预期，扣除转嫁成本后的全年净收入预计将同比下降3%至 5%，较此前预测的最多2%跌幅进一步扩大;营业利润率同比降幅最高可达175个基点，与此前预期的持 平表现形成反差。这一重大盈利预警，凸显出该集团目前面临的挑战之严峻。 WPP曾是全球最大的广告公司，该公司一直在努力重振增长并精简运营，以应对销售疲软和前景黯淡 的问题。全球经济低迷打击了客户支出，尤其是在亚洲，而人工智能技术在自动化广告创作和分发方面 的崛起也引发了整个广告行业的担忧。 对此，高盛在其发布的研报中称，这一任命有助于缓解市场对该公司管理层继任不确定性的担忧。高盛 对WPP在伦敦上市股票的评级为"中性"，目标价为600便士，这一目标价较该股7月9日收盘价有近40% 的上涨空间。而该股自今年年初以来已下跌近47%。 值此困难之际，罗斯这位微软高管 ...

近期，兰州市市场监管局深入开展广告合规助企行动，帮助企业规范广告行为，规避合规风险，提升市场竞争力，不断优化营商环境，以广告监管领域高 效能服务型执法助推广告业高质量发展。 一、合规指导优服务 为企业提供广告法律法规解读，重点讲解《广告法》《反不正当竞争法》等核心条款。市局广告科和法规科联合，在兰州宣天下有限公司、美团兰州公司 等5家企业开展现场问诊式调研、答疑式服务、精准式帮扶，对企业在互联网广告方面遇到的法律问题进行答疑解惑并讲解《广告产业"组合式"助企政策 指引(2025年)》，收到企业一致好评；对40户连锁零售药店和较大的单体药店开展了广告发布合规讲堂，详细讲解了药品广告发布规范和审批的相关要 求，进一步压实了药店的广告活动主体责任。 二、风险预警促规范 及时向企业通报最新监管政策和典型违法案例，帮助企业提前规避风险。市局广告科、网监科、双反科等科室联合，对本地饿了么、拼多多、巨量引擎等 8个网络交易平台企业进行了约谈，通过政策宣讲、合规提示与典型案例剖析，帮助企业掌握合规要点，进一步压实直播电商平台依法合规发布广告的主 体责任；联合教育部门对22家校外培训机构进行专项检查，检查线上线下广告、宣传资料 ...

Group 1 - WPP appointed Cindy Rose as the new CEO, effective September 1, to address significant challenges following a major profit warning [1][2] - The company experienced a drastic reduction in profit expectations, leading to a 19% drop in stock price on Wednesday, reaching a 16-year low [1][2] - Cindy Rose has a strong background in digital transformation and artificial intelligence, which is expected to add value to WPP during a time of fundamental industry changes [1][2] Group 2 - WPP has lost several major clients and is facing reduced client spending and fewer new business opportunities, contributing to the profit downgrade [2] - The company was overtaken by Publicis as the largest advertising group globally last year, highlighting its competitive struggles [2] - The rise of artificial intelligence is impacting WPP, as clients are increasingly able to manage their marketing activities independently [2]

Core Insights - WPP has significantly lowered its full-year performance expectations, leading to an 18.09% drop in stock price, the largest single-day decline since 2020 [1][3] - The company's disappointing performance reflects broader challenges in the advertising industry, including AI transformation, macroeconomic pressures, and changing client behaviors [3][4] Financial Performance - WPP expects a comparable revenue decline of 4.2% to 4.5% for the first half of 2025, with a second-quarter drop of 5.5% to 6%, significantly below market expectations [4] - Core operating profit is projected to be between £400 million and £425 million, with profit margins decreasing to 8.0% to 8.5%, a decline of approximately 300 basis points year-on-year [4] - Full-year revenue is anticipated to decline by 3% to 5%, a revision from the previous forecast of 0% to -2% [4] - The company has already laid off about 3,800 employees (3.5% of total staff) in an attempt to cut costs, but these measures have not yet resulted in a recovery [4] Client Losses and Competitive Landscape - WPP has faced significant client losses, particularly in its WPP Media division, losing major accounts to competitors like Publicis Groupe [5] - Notable losses include Coca-Cola's $700 million North American media business and Paramount's unexpected termination of a 20-year partnership [5] - The trend of clients consolidating their agency relationships to streamline costs and enhance data capabilities is increasing, posing further challenges for WPP [5] Industry Trends - Global advertising spending has become more conservative since the second half of 2024, with brands tightening budgets, especially in traditional media and creative services [6] - WPP is undergoing a transformation to become an "AI-enabled advertising company," investing £300 million annually and acquiring platforms to enhance data security and retail media capabilities [7][8] Leadership and Future Outlook - The upcoming departure of CEO Mark Read marks a pivotal moment for WPP, as the company has struggled to keep pace with industry changes during his tenure [9] - The advertising industry is experiencing a consolidation trend, with competitors like Publicis gaining market share, raising questions about WPP's future direction and potential restructuring [9][10] - The need for advertising companies to redefine growth in a changing landscape is emphasized, focusing on technology, efficiency, and client insights [11]

优化"帮扶链"，精准服务提质增效。针对企业在广告宣传中的"急难愁盼"，靶向施策精准帮扶。建立潜 力企业名录，梳理形成帮扶清单，实行"一企一策"动态管理。为重点企业提供广告文案设计、发布前审 查等全流程指导服务，主动"把脉问诊"，提前规避风险。截至目前，已为16家重点企业提供内容审查， 发现并指导整改"最佳""首选"等违规用语及医疗用语不当问题30个，切实助力企业提升广告合规水平与 宣传质量。 织密"监管链"，刚柔并济规范秩序。坚持规范与护航并重，构建全方位监管格局。一是强化智慧监测， 运用技术手段建立覆盖传统媒体、户外、互联网广告的监测平台，专人值守，提升违法线索发现能力， 今年以来监测广告3万条次，发现违法线索3条。二是聚焦重点领域，对美容、保健食品、教育培训等高 风险行业开展专项整治，加大巡查力度，严打虚假宣传等违法行为，已立案查处违法广告案件2起，罚 没款0.4万元，形成有力震慑。三是推行"服务型执法"，贯彻"监管为民、执法服务"理念，建立"预防— 提醒—整改—规范"闭环机制，对12起情节轻微、及时整改的首次违规行为免予处罚，下达《责令改正 通知书》督促自查自纠，引导企业自觉规范经营。 通过"三链融合" ...

中国香港、美国通过了稳定币相关法案，欧盟、新加坡、英国则将稳定币纳入监管。一些科技公司和传 统金融机构也纷纷表态，备战稳定币。 稳定币中相较于国外某些没有底层资产作为价值支撑的空气币，RWA（真实世界资产）形式的稳定币 更符合未来发展方向。RWA需要通过区块链技术将现实中的实体资产，如房产、设备、新能源设施、 数据、知识产权、应收账款、艺术品等，转化映射为链上可交易的加密货币。目前，这个以实体资产与 数字经济融合的号角正以重塑全球资产配置格局的形式在全球吹响。 随着稳定币相关的利好一浪高过一浪，A股中相关企业的股价也"连根拔起"率先高走，企业也陆续表态 稳定币业务进展。其中，浙文互联（600986.SH）上个月加码了稳定币产业，增资浙江文化产权交易 所，持股比例提升至12.37%。目前A股市场中，"蹭"稳定币概念的企业占据多数，真正涉及稳定币产业 链的企业屈指可数。浙文互联的此次举动是否真的迈入了稳定币核心区？ 战略卡位RWA生态 浙文互联本身是致力于通过数据和技术驱动流量运营，为客户提供智能营销解决方案的企业。所以此次 对于浙江文化产权交易所的增资行为，对于浙文互联而言是抢占RWA生态合作战略要地的关键一步 ...