Clinical Trial & Drug Performance - Novo's Alzheimer's drug trial (using weight loss drug MGovi) failed to meet its primary goal, showing no statistically significant slowing of Alzheimer's progression [1][2][3] - The trial results suggest that GLP-1s, while a new mechanism, may require combination with other drugs to be effective in treating Alzheimer's [8] - Biogen and Lily are considered the main players in the Alzheimer's space, with many other companies in earlier phases of development [8][9] Competitive Landscape & Market Share - Lily is perceived as consistently delivering best-in-class GLP-1 growth in obesity and diabetes, with a next product in orphagon [4] - Lily's Mjaro and Zetbound are growing significantly, taking market share from Novo [6] - Lily's market share has increased from 50% to approximately 75%, while Novo's has decreased to around 25% [11] Financial Analysis & Future Outlook - Analyst has a street-high target of $1500 for Lily, driven by the company's core business in the US [5] - Lily is expected to benefit significantly from locking in Medicare and Medicaid payer segments in the next 2-3 years, offsetting lower prices with higher volumes [10] - The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for obesity and diabetes drugs is expected to grow dramatically with expanded access to Medicare and Medicaid [12][14] - Analyst suggests that Lily is a better investment than Novo due to its pipeline, growth in the US and internationally, and overall investment in the space [13]

Company Overview - Novo's shares have fallen to a four-year low following the failure of its Alzheimer's drug trial, which did not meet its primary goal of slowing disease progression [1] - The trial results for Novo's weight loss drug MGovi were disappointing, leading to a significant drop in investor confidence [2] Market Comparison - There is a notable disparity in share prices between Novo and its competitor Lilly, with Lilly continuing to perform well in the GLP-1 market for obesity and diabetes [3][4] - Lilly's products, such as Mjaro and Zetbound, are experiencing significant growth and taking market share from Novo [6][11] Future Outlook - Despite the setback for Novo, there is still potential for GLP-1 drugs to be effective in treating Alzheimer's when combined with other therapies, indicating ongoing research opportunities in this area [8][9] - The total addressable market (TAM) for obesity drugs is expected to grow significantly, particularly with expanded access to Medicare and Medicaid [12] Investment Perspective - Analysts suggest that investing in Lilly may be more favorable than Novo, given Lilly's strong pipeline and growth trajectory in the obesity and diabetes sectors [13]