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Hagerty's classic-car market predictions for 2026
Youtube· 2025-12-17 18:27
Market Overview - The classic car market has shown strong performance in 2025, with significant activity in live auctions, digital sales, and private transactions, indicating a solid year overall [2][3] - There is optimism that this strength will continue into 2026, with no indicators suggesting a downturn [3] Supercar Segment - The supercar segment has emerged as the biggest story of 2025, with 80% of vehicles purchased by major collectors being supercars, particularly models from the 1990s and later [4][5][6] - New manufacturers and boutique brands are contributing to the growth of this segment, with high-value cars being sold rapidly [7] Generational Trends - The baby boomer generation is simplifying their collections as they age, while younger generations (Gen X, millennials, Gen Z) are beginning to enter the market and show interest in car collecting [10][11][12] - The anticipated wealth transfer of approximately $4 trillion annually is expected to influence the classic car market, as younger generations inherit and decide the fate of these vehicles [13][14] Market Dynamics - Luxury car manufacturers are producing and selling vehicles in greater numbers than in the past, with brands like Ferrari and Lamborghini setting record sales [17][18] - The market is also seeing a rise in interest for trucks, SUVs, and vintage restorations, indicating diverse opportunities for collectors [19][20] Collector Insights - A list of 11 cars has been identified as great value options for collectors, including iconic models like the Porsche Carrera GT and more affordable options like the Mazda Miata [22][23] - The Porsche 911 continues to be a strong investment, with various generations maintaining popularity among collectors [30] Economic Indicators - The strength of the classic car market is linked to consumers feeling positive about their financial situations, which encourages purchases despite uncertainties like tariffs [34][36] - The performance of the stock market is seen as a potential tailwind for the classic car market, as strong stock performance may lead to increased spending on luxury items [37]
Markets could pay the piper despite weighing in the Fed decision
Youtube· 2025-09-10 20:37
Market Overview - The stock market is currently not far from record highs, but the economy appears to be slowing, with significant job revisions and inflation not cooperating [12][13]. - The S&P 500 has seen a total return of approximately 75% over the last three years, while the Russell 2000 has only seen about half that return, indicating a concentration of performance in a few stocks [14][15]. - There are growing expectations for the Federal Reserve to take action, with the market anticipating potential rate cuts [12][27]. Economic Indicators - Analysts expect volatility in the latter half of 2025 or early 2026, with year-end price targets for the S&P 500 reflecting this uncertainty [24]. - The upcoming CPI and PPI reports are critical for market direction, as inflation indicators remain elevated [27][43]. - The market is currently pricing in expectations for multiple rate cuts, which may not align with actual economic conditions [28][29]. Sector Analysis - In the tech sector, there is a focus on AI and data center spending, with companies like Meta and OpenAI announcing significant investments [20]. - Healthcare stocks have been under scrutiny, with companies like United Healthcare performing poorly, but there is renewed interest as earnings growth expectations may finally materialize [87][92]. Investment Strategies - There is a trend of managing concentrated positions in portfolios, with a focus on diversifying into broader areas with better expected returns [80]. - The private markets are seen as offering potential growth opportunities, as companies are staying private longer [80]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality and stability in the current market environment, with expectations of a 7-8% return over the next couple of years [82]. Earnings Expectations - The S&P 500 is expected to report year-over-year earnings growth of 7.5% in the upcoming quarter, the lowest rate since early 2024 [54]. - There is a consensus that earnings growth must exceed 10% for the market to maintain its current valuations, particularly for large-cap stocks [52][56].